Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Peak oilers: “We’ve won respect”
Bob Ebersole, The Oil Drum (posted in comments)
The NPC report gives a lot of support for the peak oil point of view. If you’ll look at Stuart’s graphs in the post yesterday, [LINK] its pretty clear that without a massive increase in production from the Middle East we will be experiencing shortages within 2 years. They are putting their faith in discovering a couple of more Saudi Arabias and massive amounts of “unconventional” oil to keep growth in energy supplies, and new technology.
Both of these are unlikely, as are the reserves claimed by OPEC, as we all know from numerous keyposts and threads.
The NPC also gives respect to the concept of peak oil by using ASPO’s projections as their low production sceneario, and giving an honest definition of the concept. See Gail the Actuary’s post in the same thread.
Their recomendations include conservation, not a priority of the big oil companies in the old economy.
The short summary is, we’ve won respect and acknowledgement of our point of view, which is the most prudent view of the world oil supply. The new question is how to exploit our new advantage so that the world immediately embarks on mitigation to avoid the dire consequences projected by many folks.
I think we need a list of points of agreement so we can all work together with government and industry to mitigate the consequences.
My short list:
- Prices are going up due to increased production costs and geopolitical shortages like the ELM.
- We all want national security and economic security, and energy supplies are key to these goals.
- Everyone wants to have a clean world not threatened by global warming.
- Not wasting energy-conservation-is key to society making adjustments.
(19 July 2007)
NPC acknowledges peak oil
Gail Tverberg, The Oil Drum (posted in comments)
I participated in the American Petroleum Council’s bloggers’ conference call this afternoon. I think the major take-away I got was that they had not done any projections of supply and demand themselves – just taken the work of others and looked at ranges. When I look at the summary report PDF (takes forever to pull up), what they seem to show is ranges – including ASPO projections. Page 18 shows this graph of supply ranges:
On the phone call, I asked how their projections matched up with the IEA’s recent Medium Term Oil-Market Report. They said that for the 2012 time period, their forecast (which as made prior to the release of IEA’s report) matched up quite closely with the IEA forecasts. I am not sure if they were talking about the range shown, or a specific point in the range.
Page 18 of the summary report also shows this discussion of the Peak Oil Debate:
So they are definitely acknowledging the Peak Oil issue.
What the NPC seems to be saying is that even considering the high forecasts that the various agencies are making, there is a need for new energy sources and energy conservation.
(18 July 2007)
Oil executives sound alarm about fuel use
Shawn McCarthy, Globe & Mail
OTTAWA — When executives from the world’s largest oil companies say we need to cut back on our consumption, it should serve as the ultimate wake-up call about a looming energy crunch.
Yesterday, the former chairman of Exxon Mobil Corp. and the current chairman of Chevron Corp. led an urgent call for dramatic increases in vehicle fuel mileage standards and the rapid adoption of ethanol and other biofuels.
Without those measures and a host of others, the U.S. could face a punishing energy crisis by 2030 that would spare no energy consuming nation.
…”Many of the expected changes could heighten the risks to U.S. energy security in a world where U.S. influence is likely to decline as economic power shifts to other nations,” the report concluded. “In years to come, security threats to the world’s main sources of oil and natural gas may worsen.”
(19 July 2007)
Oil supply to trail demand by 2030, study predicts
Bloomberg News
Oil supplies may fall short of demand by 13 million barrels a day by 2030, according to a study led by former Exxon Mobil Corp. chairman Lee Raymond and based on forecasts from the world’s largest oil companies.
Data collected from as many as 12 international oil companies showed global production may reach 105 million to 110 million barrels a day by 2030. That’s as much as 11 percent below US government forecasts for 118 million barrels a day of demand.
…The oil industry, with this report, is moving closer to the analysts, hedge fund managers, politicians, and academics who have warned that global energy supplies will only get tighter and prices higher in years to come. The Petroleum Council recommends improving energy efficiency and pursuing unconventional sources of energy, including oil from tar sands and shale formations and nonpetroleum fuels such as ethanol.
(19 July 2007)
Oil-shale funding promoted
Steve Raabe, Denver Post
Funding to develop oil shale should be increased to help meet a coming shortfall of petroleum, according to a major energy report released Wednesday.
The study by the National Petroleum Council concluded that world demand for oil will significantly outstrip supplies by 2030 and that development of alternative sources such as oil shale may help bridge the gap.
…But the study generated criticism from foes of fast-paced oil- shale development and skeptics who said the report does not go far enough in laying out the problem of too much world demand for too little oil.
Carbondale energy analyst Randy Udall, a proponent of “peak oil” theory that suggests world petroleum production will soon peak and then gradually decline, said the report overestimates the ability of oil-producing countries to increase production to meet rising demand.
Udall was critical of the report’s recommendation that the federal government accelerate funding of oil-shale research and speed the leasing of the West’s massive shale deposits.
“Oil shale is such a marginal long shot that we ought to let oil companies spend their own money on it,” he said. “Leaving it to the private sector brings a discipline to oil-shale investments that we did not see back in the ’70s and ’80s when we had a lot of federal price supports for shale.”
…”Many would argue that oil shale has a long way to go, but few doubt that it is a very substantial resource,” said Donald Paul, Chevron’s chief technology officer, who headed the “supply” segment of the petroleum council’s report.
“If you want oil shale to be a resource for the future, we’ve got to get going on that because the time frame is going to be very long to get it developed,” Paul said. “We can’t go straight from the lab to full-scale field production.”
A 2005 report from Rand energy researcher James Bartis said a best-case scenario suggests that commercial-scale production of oil shale is 20 years away, and it could be at least 30 years before shale produces enough oil to make a significant contribution to U.S. oil supplies.
(18 July 2007)
National Petroleum Council stresses urgency in energy report
Jim Landers, The Dallas Morning News
U.S. will face shortages in 25 years if changes aren’t sought quickly
—
WASHINGTON – The U.S. should adopt a crash program to double automobile fuel efficiency, limit carbon emissions and push as hard as it can for bio-fuels and other energy sources over the next 25 years or risk serious shortages, says a study released Wednesday.
The National Petroleum Council, a government advisory panel with members ranging from oil and gas producers to environmental experts, prepared the report for the Bush administration.
It includes a remarkably pessimistic outlook from a dozen international oil companies, which provided proprietary forecasts that show oil supplies falling short over the next two decades unless there is either a significant slowdown in economic growth or a big move for energy savings.
…While experts advocating a “peak oil” perspective dwell largely on how much oil can be recovered from the world’s reservoirs, the Petroleum Council’s report concludes that “the world is not running out of energy resources.”
But, it said, there are growing risks to the world’s ability to continue the expansion of oil and natural gas production. Although the report shies away from the gloomy forecasts of the peak oil advocates, it concurs with their recommendations for speeding the development of alternative fuels and conservation.
(19 July 2007)
