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Historic Coal Peaks (PDF)
Larson Thane, Thane Energy Report #5
…Most peaking investigations to date have focused on oil and gas, but coal, as a nonrenewable resource, will also experience a peak and decline. Figure 1 shows the coal peak that has already occurred in the United Kingdom. The peak, as well as the year in which 50% of the original coal in place was depleted, are labeled. Many who study resource peaks, believe that the 50% depletion point coincides with the production peak and this is the fundamental way that peaks are usually predicted by analysts before they occur. The question that we can ask is whether coal production peaks coincide with the 50% depletion point and if they don’t why not.
…Table 1 gives an overview of coal depletion for states with coal reserves. The table shows that many eastern states have depleted their low-sulfur reserves, which is why coal production has moved to the western states. However, the eastern states have only depleted 36% of their total coal reserves, which include high-sulfur coal. Thus, as power plants are built that can cleanly burn high-sulfur coal, we may see a resurgence in eastern coal production.
…the history of when coal has peaked reflects a history of competition between various energy sources and environmental laws. As technology is implemented to consume high-sulfur coal cleanly, the distinction between high and low-sulfur coal will become much less important. Perhaps more importantly, the whole depletion calculation is based on the current understanding of coal reserves/
(June 2007)
From About the Thane Energy Report:
Larson Thane is an engineer in the energy industry and writes reports on a regular basis for clients. However, these reports, until now, have only been available to a small number of individuals at high prices. In the interest of providing important energy information to the general public, energy reports written by Larson Thane will now be made available, on a regular basis, covering all topics related to the energy industry.
Newcastle ‘to lose 2m tonnes in coal’
Reuters, The Age
Australia’s largest coal export terminal at Newcastle will lose around 2 million tonnes of coal exports after a storm and floods halted ship loadings and rail transport, the port operator said.
…News of the severe weather prompted a sharp rise in Newcastle prices as shown by flurry of trades on electronic trading platform globalCOAL during the European morning, market sources said.
Coal availability in Asia is extremely tight so any supply interruption will prompt a scramble for replacement tonnage, they said.
(11 June 2007)
