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Oil-mageddon
Michael Hanlon, Daily Mail
…or a century or more, a new natural resource has driven the greatest civilisation the planet has ever seen.
For our fractious, First World global village, that resource has been oil.
Petroleum, the fossilised, compressed and geothermally baked remains of sea creatures and organisms that lived hundreds of millions of years ago, drives just about everything we do – from our cars, trucks, aeroplanes and buses to power stations and central heating.
Oil is not just a fuel, it is the basis for that other defining material of modern life: plastic.
The truth is that without oil, humanity – all six and a half billion of us – would be catapulted back into the steam age. And the results would not be pretty.
Now, a new book says that the age of oil is about to draw to a close and that the post-petroleum era is already upon us.
Unwittingly, the author states, we are sleepwalking into a crisis that will make current fears about global warming look like a sideshow.
…According to David Strahan, a respected business journalist and author of the new book [The Last Oil Shock], the early warnings of an oil crisis were correct in every respect, save their timing.
In the next couple of decades or so, he argues, our civilisation will have crossed a point where the peak of oil discovery and production has been reached.
From then on, the story will be of dwindling supplies and rising prices.
Is he right? Well, he marshals some impressive arguments.
(11 May 2007)
Pickens: A future with less oil and more hard choices
Elizabeth Douglas, LA Times
Prices must rise, mogul says, and nuclear power is inevitable.
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…After roller-coaster results with his Mesa Petroleum Co., [T. Boone] Pickens has found new success with his hedge funds, one of which invests in energy stocks. In fact, at age 78, Pickens says he’s making more money now than he ever did in his rough-and-tumble days of drilling for riches in the ground and on Wall Street.
…Q: I’ve heard that you are in favor of something that would increase gas prices in the United States. Do you think that would be a tax?
Pickens: It’s either going to be a tax or it’s going to be the market. If the price were higher, there would be less use. I had a congressman come and see me and he wanted the price to be $1.50 [a gallon], and I said, “If you have it at $1.50, everybody thinks you have plenty of gasoline, and we don’t have plenty of gasoline.”
Everybody should know that. And the price will make them aware of that. And then demand will slack off. Price is the only thing that’s going to kill demand.
Q: We could get there faster with a tax, but that doesn’t seem politically feasible, does it?
Pickens: Oh, politically, it’s a disaster. When I mention it to my political friends, they say, “Absolutely not. Think of another idea, that won’t work.” If you had a tax, you could balance it off for people that are most affected by the price of gasoline and give them an offsetting credit somewhere.
Q: What are your thoughts on alternatives?
Pickens: I think every alternative’s going to get a chance. The public’s ready for it. If it’s clean, they’re really ready for it. They’re all going to get a chance.
…Q: When you look at folks who don’t believe that worldwide oil production has already peaked, do you think they’re wrong or the data aren’t convincing?
Pickens: It’s pretty convincing to me. From what I’ve read, they believe that there will be technology advancements that will cover the gap. I don’t agree with that.
I’ve been in the business over 50 years now. I’ve drilled a lot of oil wells. It’s expensive to find, and I think the big fields have been found. Today, you’d have to replace 30 billion barrels a year to keep up. And we don’t even come close to that.
(30 April 2007)
China’s coal production to peak in a few years
Jerome a Paris, Daily Kos
The above graph is from a Energy Watch Group, a German think tank, and represents an optimistic view of future coal production as it makes two big assumptions:
* reserve numbers are correct – and their report notes that history suggests that reserves are overvalued in many countries;
* nothing is done to fight climate change by limiting coal production.
…the engine of globalisation is just about to stall. The economic consequences are going to be devastating.
Note, of course, that the peak of the single biggest producer (China) will also largely drive the global production peak, slated to take place in not more than 20 years:
…Note, again, that this is an optimist take, with no downward revision of reserves (coal reserves are not very precisely measured, and when they are, the results tend to be disappointing rather the other way round), and with no action to limit coal use for reasons linked to pollution or global warming.
(13 May 2007)
Global Oil Watch – Breaking Oil and Gas News
Jason Reimbold, Global Oil Watch
Global Oil Watch is a premiere web portal providing breaking oil and gas news to energy industry professionals and analysts worldwide.
Founded in 2005, Global Oil Watch has quickly become one of the leading online portals for breaking oil and gas news. The content rich site offers real-time energy headlines powered by Yahoo! Finance. However, unlike other sites offering RSS feeds, Global Oil Watch captures the most pertinent information through a proprietary RSS script.
In addition to oil and gas news, Global Oil Watch offers an extensive research library of industry reports and presentations. With topics ranging from governmental policies to peak-oil, our research section provides visitors with quick access to leading research.
Global Oil Watch has been added as a resource on many leading energy websites including the Energy Information Administration.
Founder Jason Reimbold is a financial analyst for one of mid-continent’s leading energy banks. He holds a degree in finance from the University of Tulsa where he studied geopolitics and international energy markets under former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy R. Dobie Langenkamp.
From 1999 to 2001, Jason served an extended tour in the Republic of South Korea while in the U.S. Army Cavalry. After returning to the United States in early 2001, he was staffed as a Battalion Intelligence Officer at Fort Drum, NY. In the midst 9/11, Jason was responsible for conducting battalion level anti-terrorism training and security briefings. This duty began his research of the Middle-East and global energy politics.
(May 2007)
