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A sitting federal appeals judge introduces lawyers to Peak Oil
Article title: “A petroleum peak?”
Judge Richard D. Cudahy, American Bar Association
Of the global energy supply, 80.3 percent is hydrocarbon-based (and thus problematic for global warming); 34.3 percent of energy is derived from crude oil, while 20 percent is based on natural gas, and 25.1 percent still finds its origins in coal.
With this overwhelming dependence on hydrocarbon fuels, led by crude oil, it’s not difficult to understand the recent intense interest in how long these fuels – and particularly crude oil – can be expected to be available. Opinions on this subject seem to cluster in two major schools.
One group anticipates that crude oil supplies will soon be on the path to foreseeable exhaustion, while another aggregation of analysts views crude oil as virtually inexhaustible, and, of course, there are intermediate positions of every stripe. The sharply contrasting analyses of these schools of experts present a fascinating contrast, with each view tending to be associated with a different professional approach.
Judge Cudahy serves on the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. His e-mail is [email protected].
(19 March 2007)
Contributor JMG writes:
Judge Cudahy often writes excellent articles for the Energy Bar Association journal. Here is a good article introducing lawyers in the ABA Section on public utilities, transportation, and communications law to the topic of Peak Oil (probably the first time in most cases), with a good analysis of the differences between realists and cornucopians (although he calls them pessimists and optimists). Alas, full text online only available to ABA utility section members (or via Lexis). Check a law library near you.
CNBC: Matt Simmons Discusses a Plateauing Oil Supply with Maria Bartiromo
Prof Goose, The Oil Drum
This is from March 7, 2007. Also, if you haven’t seen Matt’s recent appearance on Bloomberg (where he goes into a little more depth than in this video), here is a link. Send these videos around, they’re great ways to get people thinking. Hit digg, hit reddit, hit your linkfarms!
(18 March 2007)
(18 March 2007)
A presentation by Matt Simmons was webcast two times on University of California TV: Peak Oil: What are some of the Implications and Energy Options for California to Consider?. Hopefully, the presentation will be archived. -BA
Peak Oil? Turkish Diesel is close to 300$ a barrel
Ahmet Türker, USAK Energy Review via The Journal of Turkish Weekly Opinion
…In Turkey, there is a popular protest against high oil prices. Some drivers stick print outs like : “Warning! This car uses the most expensive gasoline on earth”. It is not a fantasy or exaggerated protest. Turkish unleaded gasoline is around 328 USD per barrel.
…The high prices in Turkey are not due to geopolitical problems but due to high taxation policy of the state. Nearly 1/4th of the final price is the refinery output price. The rest is taxes and distribution company shares.
So what does it like to live with the peak oil prices? For most of the Turks, complaining does not work. They just accept it as a reality. In the eastern provinces like Van however, the high prices become an opportunity for smuggling.
In Iran, the gasoline is around 40 cents a gallon or around 10 cents per liter. When you compare the 2 dollars in Turkey, the smuggling is an excellent opportunity for high profits.
…As seen from the numbers, Turkish thirst for oil has not been decreased but the consumers are shifting to diesel from gasoline. In reality, the diesel cars’ popularity are increasing day by day.
The Turkish transportation sector has grown despite high prices in 2006. The number of diesel cars on the roads has increased and smaller cars have become more popular than before.
But there is another factor, which is the subject of another article: LPG usage in the transport sector. There is no government support for using LPG but due to high prices number of people modifying their cars to run on LPG is increasing day by day.
All these may not be reflecting the real environment of “peak oil”, because substitution is readily available. But the Turkish market and Turkish consumer behaviors includes clues for peak oil plateau. If the economic growth is strong, the consumption may not be decreasing. There is a growing dominance of small and diesel cars. LPG modification and factory made modifications for LPG usage are quite common.
Looking from the positive side, Turks are less vulnerable to high price increases when compared with the countries implementing lower taxes. So the sudden jump of prices may have a damaging effect on the economy, but for ordinary consumers, oil is not a very big problem as long as their incomes are at satisfactory levels. After all, gasoline prices remain a fraction of the whole “owning a car” cost.
(18 March 2007)
Pemex CEO: Company is in critical condition
Wire services, El Universal
Mexico´s state oil monopoly is in “critical condition” and needs to boost exploration and seek outside expertise to replenish oil reserves that are currently set to last less than a decade, energy officials said Sunday.
President Felipe Calderón, however, said during a ceremony marking the 69th anniversary of the nation´s oil nationalization that there are no plans to privatize the industry and that Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, “will always continue to belong to all Mexicans.”
Pemex´s proven reserves have fallen to the equivalent of 9.3 years of production from 9.7 years in 2005, and daily output declined last year by 2.3 percent to about 3.2 million barrels, officials said at the ceremony in the Gulf coast state of Veracruz.
“The situation of Petróleos Mexicanos is critical and merits immediate attention,” Pemex chief executive Jesús Reyes Heroles .
The company currently transfers most of its income to the government in taxes and revenue sharing, leaving little for investment. Pemex sent 93.2 percent of its profits to the government last year, accounting for 37.5 percent of federal income.
At the end of last year, proven reserves were 5.8 percent lower than in 2005. And production at the Cantarell oil field, the country´s biggest, fell by 11.9 percent last year.
(19 March 2007)
New website for “How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” film
Community Solutions
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, Cuba’s economy went into a tailspin. With imports of oil cut by more than half – and food by 80 percent – people were desperate. This film tells of the hardships and struggles as well as the community and creativity of the Cuban people during this difficult time. Cubans share how they transitioned from a highly mechanized, industrial agricultural system to one using organic methods of farming and local, urban gardens.
It is an unusual look into the Cuban culture during this economic crisis, which they call “The Special Period.” The film opens with a short history of Peak Oil, a term for the time in our history when world oil production will reach its all-time peak and begin to decline forever. Cuba, the only country that has faced such a crisis – the massive reduction of fossil fuels – is an example of options and hope.
(March 2007)
A new website has background information, news items and publicity for the recently released documentary from Community Solutions. DVDs are available. -BA
