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6th Intl ASPO conference: “Time to React?”
Richard O’Rourke, Director, ASPO Ireland
The organising committee join me in inviting you to join us in Cork, Ireland, this September for the 6th Annual International ASPO Conference entitled ‘Time to React?’
This years Annual International ASPO conference, the 6th, is shaping up to be a truly significant event and for a number of reasons. Not least of which is that this will be the first time Ireland will host the event, home to ASPO’s founder, Dr. Colin Campbell. And September is a wonderful time of year to visit the Emerald Isle.
In designing the programme and coming up with a theme for the conference we took on board feedback from last year’s conference in Pisa and the ASPO USA conference in Boston. Consensus emerged that investing time and effort into trying to come up with an ‘accurate’ date for peak is not necessarily the most fertile field to furrow. ‘Time to react?’ was chosen because it resonates on two levels, the most obvious is designed to target the mainstream public for whom the concept is still quite new and generally poorly understood. The second is for the more seasoned student of Peak Oil where the focus of attention is moving from trying to predict when peak might occur to the realisation that the range of possible dates is finite and even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that our modern society faces a truly significant challenge to deal with the phenomenon of Peak Oil. And that will occur within the context of the equally grave challenge we face from the threat of Global Warming. As Global Warming moves into mainstream consciousness we will explore the relationship between these two critical challenges.
We look forward to seeing you at the conference and enjoying your contribution to our understanding of the phenomenon of Peak Oil.
Kind regards,
Richard O’Rourke
Director, ASPO Ireland
ASPO6 Organising Committee
(March 2007)
Could Saudi Arabia Be More Than 70% Depleted?
Jeffrey J. Brown,. Graphoilogy
Matt Simmons, in his excellent book, “Twilight in the Desert”, warned that Saudi Arabia probably has far less recoverable oil reserves than they claim to have. Since Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, it is critical that we understand what their true reserve status is.
The Hubbert Linearization (HL) method gives us a way of estimating the Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (URR) for a region, using historical production. Therefore, we can estimate the URR for a region where accurate recoverable reserve estimates are hard to obtain, for example regions like Saudi Arabia.
In the captioned article, I argued, based on “Khebab’s” technical (HL) work, that Saudi Arabia in 2005 was at the same stage of depletion that the prior swing producer, Texas, peaked, in 1972.
Because we have so much data for Texas, we can get a fairly accurate estimate of URR, probably about 62 billion barrels (Gb), or what I will call Probable URR.
In the article, I noted that Texas peaked in 1972 at 57% of probable URR. Recently, Robert Rapier, on The Oil Drum, has raised some questions about what could have been predicted prior to the Texas peak. As a result of the questions that Robert raised, I have gone back and reexamined the data, and I have come up with some troubling conclusions.
…if we use the Texas model, and discount the recent inflection, which is probably an artifact of the swing producer maximizing production prior to the peak, it suggests that the Saudi Qt is only 150 Gb, which in turn suggests that Saudi Arabia is now over 70% depleted, with about 40 Gb in remaining recoverable reserves. This is approximately one-fourth of the most commonly used estimate of remaining recoverable reserves, and it is a very small fraction of the ultimate possible reserves that the Saudis now claim to have.
Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area.
(15 March 2007)
Jeffrey’s article was mentioned in the Wall Street Journal’s Energy Roundup yesterday. A response from Robert Rapier was mentioned by the WSJ Energy Roundup today. (Rapier’s original article at his website.)
This disagreement between the two experts is not easy for a lay person to follow (at least not for this lay person). Is there a science writer or technical writer who could explain the controversy so that a wider audience could understand it?
-BA
Oil companies running hard to stand still
Phil Hart, The Age
DURING a previous oil price crisis in the United States, a jovial service station attendant may have remarked to customers that “We’ve run out of $2 gas, but we’ve got plenty of $5 gas”. Attendants on the trading floors might today observe that we’ve got plenty of $80 (US) barrels, but we’re running short of $50 barrels.
Last Friday [2 Mar 07], the US Energy Information Administration released oil production data to the end of last year. Crude oil production was nearly 200,000 barrels a day lower than in 2005. Total liquid supply was flat. That’s gripping news and should be enough to rattle any economist’s confidence.
Despite a calm hurricane season, record prices and a forecast consensus from energy agencies that supply would continue to grow, oil production stalled last year. Were the oil companies not trying hard enough? ..
(2 Mar 2007)
ODAC: UK was net oil importer in 2006
Uchenna Izundu, Oil & Gas Journal
The UK became a net importer of oil for most of 2006, according to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) in Aberdeen. “It is time for the UK government to let go of the idea that the UK will be a net oil exporter until 2010 and accept we are now dependent on imports,” ODAC said.
Data published by the UK Department for Trade and Industry showed that the UK imported oil during every month in 2006 except for June.
DTI forecasts that the UK will export oil for a few months during 2007 and see a decline in domestic oil production. From 2008, the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration expect the UK to be a net oil importer. ..
A spokeswoman for the UK Offshore Operators’ Association said the difference in oil imports and indigenous production in 2006 was small. “Last year’s dip can be attributed to lower-than-expected North Sea production, owing in part to delays in new fields coming on stream, reservoir performance, and maintenance programs.
Global constraints on resources, including equipment and personnel, also had an impact on activity levels in the UK.”..
(13 Mar 2007)
ODAC comments: The UK Offshore Operators’ Association seem to be changing their tune. Until as recently as the end of last year they were adamant the UK would be a net oil exporter until 2010. Indeed, their Economic report 2006 states (p13): “The UK has been self-sufficient in oil for the last 25 years and is expected to remain so for the next 4 or 5 years, if current new developments proceed as planned.”
What is really odd about this statement is that the UK had been a net oil importer for 5 months (Jan – May) when this report was released in July! In the following article UKOOA forecast the UK to be a net oil exporter to 2008, although they avoid using such an early date by saying “the UK will become a net importer of oil from 2009 onwards”: Both the IEA and EIA think it will be touch and go whether or not the UK will be a net exporter this year, and no chance for next. It would be useful if UKOOA could release a list of the oil fields they expect to counteract the 150,000 – 250,000 b/d that will be lost to depletion next year.
