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IPCC Working Group II preview
Climate Change Impact More Extensive than Thought
David Roberts, Grismill
The folks at Spiegel got an advance look at the IPCC’s Working Group II report, due out next month. (WGII is the one on “impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.” WGIII is on mitigation).
The news is all ice cream and ponies! Except not.
One main finding is that global warming is already having profound effects on the world’s ecosystems. There’s some uncertainty, but not all that much:
The authors of the report have sifted through some 30,000 data sets from more than 70 international studies documenting changes to water circulation, to cryospheres (ice zones), as well as to flora and fauna over a period of at least 20 years.
According to the IPCC, “more than 85 percent” of the data show “changes in a direction that would be expected as a reaction to warming.” In other words: Researchers found evidence of environmental changes due to the greenhouse effect caused by mankind in nearly 9 out of 10 cases surveyed.
The researchers consider it “very unlikely” that the changes observed could be naturally occurring phenomena. They argue that the patterns of regional climate warming and environmental changes match up well with each other. And a similar consistency exists between the scientists’ observations and what climate models have predicted would happen as temperatures rise.
What can we expect in the future? Witness:
* Some 20 to 30 percent of all species face a “high risk of extinction” should average global temperatures rise another 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius from their 1990 levels. That could happen by 2050, the report warns.
* Coral reefs are “likely to undergo strong declines.”
* Salt marshes and mangrove forests could disappear as sea levels rise.
* Tropical rainforests will be replaced by savanna in those regions where groundwater decreases.
* Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones in the Arctic shift.
Wo0t!
OK, but that’s all about “nature,” right? We’ll be OK. Right?
For the most part, global warming will have negative effects for both humans and the environment across much of the planet. The positive aspects — such as better agricultural and forestry yields in northern Europe — will be more than outweighed by the threats presented by rising temperatures and the perils that accompany them.
The draft also makes clear just how strongly the authors stand behind their forecasts. Most of their conclusions belong to category two, which means the researchers back them with “strong certainty.” Some are even designated “very strong certainty,” including the example that North America will be hit by stronger forest fires and heat waves in large cities, as well as the assumption that climate change poses the biggest risk to small island states.
I can’t wait for technology to come and save us! [glances at watch nervously] Kinda wish it would hurry up!
(2 March 2007)
Climate Change Impact More Extensive than Thought
Volker Mrasek, Spiegel Online
Global climate change is happening faster than previously believed and its impact is worse than expected, information from an as-yet unpublished draft of the long-awaited second part of a United Nations report obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE reveals. No region of the planet will be spared and some will be hit especially hard.
Is the world’s weather already out of control? Is the pollution of the past decades having an impact on the present? That’s exactly what the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fears: Human influences over the last 30 years “have had a recognizable effect on many physical and biological systems,” write the authors of the as yet unreleased second part of the 2007 global climate change report.
According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is convinced global warming is already making the world sweat. At least that’s the gist of the “Summary for Policymakers” from the group made up of hundreds of scientists.
(2 Mar 2007)
Climate change pushes “African” diseases north: expert
Jeremy Clarke, Reuters
Global warming is pushing northwards diseases more commonly found in developing countries, posing a risk to the financial and physical health of rich nations, the head of a livestock herders’ charity said.
Steve Sloan, chief executive of GALVmed, said on Friday insect-borne diseases were increasingly moving north, such as the viral infection bluetongue that has hit cattle and sheep in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Germany.
If Kenya’s Rift Valley Fever also reached Europe, the impact would be immense, he said.
“These ‘African’ diseases have become global issues because of climate change,” Sloan told Reuters in an interview.
(9 March 2007)
Refrigeration System for the Earth’s Oceans Threatens to Break Down
Stefan Schmitt, Spiegel Online
A surprising discovery in the Antarctic has scientists alarmed. According to an analysis of core samples, the southern ice shelf reacts far more sensitively to warming temperatures than scientists had previously believed. The message: sea levels may rise even further than feared.
From October through the end of December 2006, high-tech drills penetrated to a depth of exactly 1,287.87 meters (4,225.3 feet) into the Ross Ice Shelf in the eastern Antarctic. The sediments that were brought to the surface with the drill core allow researchers to embark on a voyage back in time. For every meter (about 3 feet) of sediment, scientists can now peer about 10,000 years into the past. The recent drilling effort offers scientists a look at what may have happened on the earth up to about 12 million years ago.
The sample could prove to be one of the most important drill cores in recent years. The sediments it contains show that the Antarctic climate has only been continuously cold for about the last million years, during which one of its largest bays has been constantly covered by a layer of ice up to several hundred meters thick. The ice shelf melted about 5 million years ago and, presumably along with it, a significant portion of the ice on land.
…What these unique ice cores revealed about temperature changes in the last 5 million years was both surprising and new, says Viereck-Götte, who calls the results “horrifying.” The data suggests “the ice caps are substantially more mobile and sensitive than we had assumed.”
“The idea that the ocean here was ice-free for almost a million years is completely new,” says Viereck-Götte. Besides, he adds, the melting that occurred about 5 million years ago can be seen in the context of a prehistoric climate shift. According to Viereck-Götte, “massive melting” must have occurred in the Antarctic during the so-called Miocene-Pliocene warming. The cause sounds anything but massive. Based on isotope analyses from various locations worldwide, paleoclimatologists know that the average global temperature in the oceans increased by only two to three degrees Celsius (3.6-5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) — a seemingly minor change. Nevertheless this change in temperature, according to the new Andrill ice core, led to an ice-free Ross Sea.
(2 Mar 2007)
Climate change brews ocean trouble
Peter N. Spotts, Christian Science Monitor
Scientists tie global warming to increased upwelling of deep ocean water, which can create crippling aquatic dead zones.
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…Evidence is starting to accumulate that global warming may contribute to – or even trigger – troubling ecological changes taking place in these key regions of coastal upwelling, where some of the world’s richest fisheries exist.
These coastal upwelling regions – for example, off Peru, northern California, Oregon, and the west coast of Africa – collectively cover less than 1 percent of the ocean. But they But they account for 20 percent of the world’s fish catch. Some of these areas have shown remarkable resilience, notes Dr. Bakun, with the Pew Institute for Ocean Science at the University of Miami in Florida. Others have not. The concern, he continues, “is when you might push the ecosystem just a little too far.”
This concern has prompted an increased interest in exploring how these ecosystems respond to change.
(8 March 2007)
