Peak oil – Feb 2

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Collapse and its discontents
Dmitry Orlov, Speaking Truth to Power
[Many readers are familiar with Dmitry Orlov, who lived through the collapse of the Soviet Union and from his experience offers options for surviving the collapse of Western civilization as we know it.–CB]

It’s been a couple of years since I started writing on the subject of economic collapse, as it occurred in Russia and as it is likely to occur here in the United States. Thus far, I remain reasonably content with my predictions: it’s all lining up, slowly but surely.

Militarily, the US, followed by Israel, seem to have landed themselves in a cul de sac of their own creation, having squandered much treasure on useless high-tech weapons while losing infantry battles against motivated freelancers, with the eventual effect of losing access to the oil fields in the Middle East. Economically, Peak Oil appears to have actually transpired some time in the summer of 2005, and is now slowly coming into focus in the rear view mirror, just as it’s supposed to.

Politically, the country has wobbled leftward, only to rediscover that its other Capitalist party also happens to be its other War party. Internationally, hoisting the American flag is now considered a lewd gesture, and this will probably remain so for quite some time, since honor and reputation happen to be among the most difficult things to reclaim. Financially, the US economy has degenerated into a sort of cargo cult, where people feel that they can continue to attract recycled petrodollars by dancing around piles of internet servers with their cell phones and their laptops.

In short, steady as she goes, and I see no reason to start worrying that history will prove me wrong. But that is where the satisfaction ends, and the problems begin.

A dispassionate and ironic approach is all well and good. However, my very own mother accuses me of unsympathetic sang froid in understating the horrific suffering endured by the Russian people when I describe how much better-prepared for economic collapse they were than the United States currently is. So, for the record, I am talking about a die-off, shattered lives, a missing generation of children, and much that is precious and irreplaceable burned or buried under a tide of violence and filth. I also know that endlessly recounting tales of horror and misery is the surest way to lose one’s audience, as my mother would no doubt be willing to demonstrate.

… Because collapse will not be televised, you will not know that it has happened. You will only know that it has happened to you. And so it is only fair that I warn you: caveat emptor! Collapse – for you, the putatively satisfied consumer of information products – is a faulty product that will fail to please you. If, however, you have already dropped out of the ranks of satisfied consumers, then for you collapse is already well underway, and you have far more pressing things to consider than tilting at the windmills of climate change or obsessing over countless other issues of global import. Collapse, it turns out in the end, is a single-use product. Properly applied, it produces a deep and abiding feeling of dissatisfaction. In this, and this alone, it is quite excellent.
(1 Feb 2007)

A Day in a Life Without Oil (audio and transcript)
Jim Puplava and John Loeffler, Financial Sense Newsletter
JOHN: …The interesting thing is as we talk about this, if you look at everyone speaking on the subject, still very few people seem to comprehend exactly what it means to be addicted to oil. When we say addicted to oil, people think, oh, it’s our cars that we’re driving down the freeway. That’s our addiction to oil. It is far more in-depth than that. So that’s what we want to look at: what would a day without oil be like?

JIM: Well, John, when you think of oil the first thing that probably comes to your mind is the gas you put in your car, the jet fuel that they put on the airplane or the diesel fuel they put on the big ships or consume. And to some extent that’s true. 90% of the transportation system in this country – car, rail, plane, ships – runs on oil or natural gas. So when we think of oil or energy, that 90% for transportation is the first thing that comes to mind. But I think most people are less aware that 95% of all the goods and services that you see in our economy are based on petroleum. And further more, even more vital to our health, 95% of food production comes from oil.
(27 Jan 2007)
Much more at original.

Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference
Chris Vernon, The Oil Drum: Europe
The Soil Association is a 60 year old UK organisation responsible for setting standards in organic farming. They describe themselves as “UK’s leading environmental charity promoting sustainable, organic farming and championing human health.” Their logo is the UK’s most recognisable trademark for organic produce. It is found on more than 70% of all UK organic produce.

Last summer they launched a major peak oil initiative going by the name of Food and Farming – Post Peak Oil. This theme was the focus of their 26-27th Jan 2007 annual conference, subtitled “Preparing for a post-peak oil food and farming future”.

With over 800 delegates and the peak oil educator stalwarts of Campbell, Heinberg and Leggett amongst the speakers this was the largest and potentially most significant peak oil communication event yet.

I’ve been to many peak oil conferences over the years, they all had one thing in common. They were organised by people interested in peak oil, for people interested in peak oil. It’s a small community with virtually the same few hundred people at each one! Okay, I exaggerate a little but it is true to say the core messages from these conferences have, for the most part remained within the peak oil “community”.

This was different. A step change. This conference wasn’t organised by or for the peak oil community. It was the first time (that I’m aware of) the peak oil message – as delivered by Campbell and Heinberg et al – was core to the annual conference of a major organisation.
(1 Feb 2007)
Rob Hopkins has been posting on the Soil Association conference too.

-BA

Farming, supermarkets and the end of cheap oil (Audio)
Miriam O’Reilly, Farming Today, Radio 4 (UK)
Should we all be preparing for a life without supermarkets? There’s a growing school of thought that argues that the way we shop and the way supermarkets organise their food supplies just won’t be possible once the era of cheap oil comes to an end … food miles will become so expensive that shopping locally and buying food that’s is grown near the shop will not just be a lifestyle choice, it’ll be a necessity. So should farmers be planning for change and shoppers start walking to the greengrocer instead of driving to the superstore? Miriam O’Reilly and guests explore the issues in Farming Today This Week .

(Saturday 27 Jan 2007)
The peak oil segment begins about 10 minutes 30 seconds into the audio.

From “Rob Hopkins: BBC Radio 4’s Farming Today on Saturday explored some of the issues raised by the Soil Association conference in Cardiff. In an excellent programme, it looked at the role of supermarkets in a post-peak society and whether, indeed, they will actually have one. It included interviews with Green MEP Caroline Lucas and a walk around Totnes with Transition Culture’s own Rob Hopkins. It will be featured on the Listen Again section of the “R4?) section of the Radio 4 website until late Friday. Look for the link to ‘Farming Today This Week’.”