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PBS Debate on Peak Oil:
The McCuistion Program: Peak Oil–Are We There Yet?
PBS
September 17th, 2006 While many experts say we have not reached peak oil, (the point at which we have produced as much in a given year as we can and from which we can only decline.), differing opinions, the price of oil today, the instability in oil producing regions and the need for substitutes all argue for a better understanding by each of us.
Panelists:
Edward W. Blessing, Managing Director, Blessing Petroleum Group, LLC,
Scott Nauman, Manager of Economy and Energy, Corporate Planning Dept., ExxonMobil Corporation,
Christopher Ross, Vice President, CRA International,
Michael Lynch, President, Strategic Energy and Economic Research
Jeffrey J. Brown, Independent Petroleum Geologist
(Aug 2006)
Participant and peak-oil writer Jeffrey J. Brown provides backgroundon the debate:
This 30 minute segment was taped in August, 2006. It has been shown locally on the PBS station in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and it is supposed to be shown at some point in other markets around the country.
I was a late “add” to the debate, when the producers decided that they needed a stronger “Yes, we have peaked” proponent. As you can tell from Dennis McCuistion’s final comments, I think that they got more than they bargained for.
For background information on the Hubbert Linearization technique that I described in the debate, you can read more about it in this article: “Texas & Lower 48 Oil Production As a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World” www.energybulletin.net/16459.html
By the way, Christopher Ross, who I understand was recommend by Saudi Aramco, said that Middle Eastern oil producers would be cutting back their production voluntarily in order to prolong the life of their fields. In my opinion, this is code language for “Our oil production is falling no matter how fast we drill.”
Since we had this debate, Saudi and world oil production, at least crude + condensate plus natural gas liquids production, has continued to be below peak 2005 levels, despite oil prices trading in the highest (nominal) price range in history.
Hysteria Over Iran and a New Cold War with Russia:
Peak Oil, Petrocurrencies and the Emerging Multi-Polar World (PDF)
William Clark, Petrodollar Warfare
The 21st century will likely be defined by three overarching forces: climate change, Peak Oil, and macroeconomics. The twin issues of climate change and Peak Oil are intertwined variables, and each represent extremely important phenomena that have slowly begun to enter the public debate, at least among the more objective members of society.
However, the third issue, macroeconomics, and more specifically the global trends regarding petrocurrencies, remains essentially unreported by the five US corporate media conglomerates. Nonetheless, from Washington to Caracas, from London to Moscow, and from Beijing to Tehran, in order to fully appreciate contemporary geopolitics, it is important to recognize the underlying momentum towards multiple petrocurrencies – and the growing challenge to US dollar supremacy.
The hypothesis outlined in my book, Petrodollar Warfare; Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar, is that the geopolitical landscape of this century is increasingly being driven by increasing competition for energy supplies before global oil production peaks, and the erosion of dollar hegemony and emergence of new petrocurrency alignments. [3] The tragic war in Iraq is in many ways the first oildepletion and oil-currency war of the 21st century.
This essay explores disparate energy and economic alignments that are poised to produce a multi-polar world order manifestly different from the post-World War II era (i.e., bi-polar Cold War period followed by a uni-polar world order). What is not yet clear is whether today’s unfolding energy, geopolitical, and macroeconomic alignments will ultimately produce a tri-polar distribution of global power or perhaps a quadri-polar world order.
Contents
Introduction: Hegemony
Pursuit of Global Hegemony and Imperial Overstretch
Part I. Why Petrocurrencies Matter: Macroeconomic Effects of a Monopoly Petrodollar
1. Petrodollar Recycling and the Funding of the US Current Account Deficit
2. US versus Global Currency Risk for Imported Oil
3. US versus Global Gasoline Taxation Levels
4. Net Effect of the Monopoly Petrodollar Recycling System
The EU and OPEC on Petroeuros
Critics of the Petroeuro Challenge to the Petrodollar Supremacy
Part II. Manifest Subterfuge Déjà Vu: Unfolding Disinformation Campaign against Iran
Iran’s Oil Bourse and Washington’s Economic War to Undermine It
Part III. Russia’s Geopolitical Posturing for Energy Superstate Status
Cold War Part II: Introducing Russian Petrorubles
Part IV. Asia: An Emerging Pole of Global Power
Shanghai Petroleum Bourse Re-opens: China Enters the Fray
Part V. Recommended Reforms: Escaping the Destiny of Empires
Conclusion
References
(1 Dec 2006)
A 56-page essay in PDF from the author of Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar. Clark’s homepage is www.petrodollarwarfare.com/ .
Peak oil era will be hard on Hawaii
Manfred Zapka and Jim Dator, Honolulu Star-Bulletin
Star-Bulletin Editor’s note: In the next decade or two, a global energy crisis will be thrust upon us; the changes it brings will be felt first in Hawaii, possibly with a more devastating effect here than in the rest of the world. Hawaii must begin preparations now to cushion the effects, say the authors of this cautionary essay. The writers are a University of Hawaii political scientist and a UH-educated civil engineer. In addition, it was signed by 21 others representing a range of scientific disciplines in Hawaii; three chose to sign as private citizens.
DURING the past months “peak oil” has been the subject of a heated discussion in the media, including in Hawaii. The state’s energy security is too important for us to allow discussions of future energy options to become a battle about peak oil, pro or con.
Peak oil ought to be understood as a helpful scientific tool to model the depletion of conventional oil reserves and to develop a sense of urgency for taking steps to mitigate its effects.
…HAWAII HAS one of the highest rates of per capita oil consumption in the world. Our rate in Hawaii is twice that of the U.S. average; four times the average of Europe and 28 times that of China. Moreover, oil not only fuels our transportation and electricity-generating plants, it also fuels the airplanes that fuel our tourist-based economy and the ships that bring in almost all of our food and consumer goods. Un- or insufficiently mitigated oil supply shortfalls will hit Hawaii much harder than almost any other place in the world.
There are several supply and demand-side opportunities for Hawaii that are attractive and make economic sense. While some might appear to be “uneconomical” now under assumptions of ever-increasing energy supplies and a healthy economy, they will prove to be prudent and forward-looking remedies in the years and decades to come. Hawaii’s hope for a sustainable future is best served through serious and meaningful plans to mitigate our over-dependence on oil before any supply shortfalls appear.
Manfred J. Zapka is a graduate of the University of Hawaii. He works as a consulting engineer and writes on issues concerning technology and change scenarios for the peak oil era. Jim Dator is professor of political science at the University of Hawaii-Manoa and director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies.
Also signing this essay: Robert Brewer, private citizen; Jim Dator, UH Political Science; Roger Davis, UH Institute of Geophysics and Planetology; Fred Buennebier, UH Geology and Geophysics; Charles Helsley, UH Sea Grant; Garrett Ito, UH Geology and Geophysics; Adam Johnson, UH Geology and Geophysics; Barbara Keating, UH Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology; Jeremy Kowlasczyk, UH Physics; Hans Krock, UH Ocean Engineering and Energy Systems; Penny Larin, UH Geology and Geophysics; John Learned, UH Physics and Astronomy; Davidson Luehring, private citizen; Fred Mackenzie, UH Oceanography; Gary McMurtry, UH School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology; Ralph Moberly, UH Geology and Geophysics; Michael Mottl, UH Oceanography; Tobia Owen, UH Institute for Astronomy; Mark Reese, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute; Alan Rowland, private citizen; Benjamin Sellers, UH Geology and Geophysics; Patrick Takahashi, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute; Manfred Zapka, Marc M. Siah & Associates, a civil engineering firm.
(10 Dec 2006)
