Click on the headline (link) for the full text.
Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Oil depletion in the world
Seppo A. Korpela, CURRENT SCIENCE
Concern over inadequate oil supply has been in the news lately. In this article the basis for concern over future supply is discussed by analysing future production prospects using a model based on the logistic equation and past production data. The aim of the article is to make the use of the model transparent and to broadcast the result that, based on this method, peak oil production in the world is likely by the end of this decade.
…It is now reasonable to say that, according to Hubbert’s calculation scheme, the world’s peak production year is 2009 ± 4 years, which means that it is entirely possible that oil production in the world may begin to diminish anytime.
…It is worth mentioning that because the logistic equation gives a symmetric production profile, critics have pronounced it useless for predicting the arc of world oil production. They further complain that there is no particular reason to suspect that the peak production should take place when half the oil has been produced, as the model has it, and that the theory does not take technological advances explicitly into account. All these objections are easy to refute…
(Nov 2006)
Seppo Korpela uses Hubbert linearisation as employed by Khebab and Stuart Staniford at The Oil Drum and GraphOilogy to reach similar conclusions in this peer reviewed article.
Seppo A. Korpela is a Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Ohio State University.
-AF
ASPO Newsletter #71 – November 2006 (PDF)
Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
CONTENTS:
Regional Assessment – Latin America
Newsweek Covers Oil
Peak Oil and World War (Oil, Smoke and Mirror review)
Oil Company Hints
A Dip in Oil Prices
Norway Addresses Peak Oil
EU Transition to a Sustainable Energy System
Russia Pressed at G8 Meeting
Global Warming and Peak Oil
Major Oil Companies Seem to Pass Peak
ASPO USA Boston Conference great success
(November 2006)
Another indispensible newsletter -AF
TOD:UK to become TOD:Europe
Prof. Goose, The Oil Drum
…In consultation with the existing editors of TOD:UK, we have decided to expand the scope of that operation to cover the whole of Europe. So, as of tonight, TOD:UK becomes TOD:Europe!
The new staff of TOD:Europe will include: Chris Vernon (former editor of TOD:UK, MPhys Computational Physics); Euan Mearns (formerly of TOD:UK, PhD Isotope Geochemsitry: Ran isotope geochemsitry company 1991 – 2001: Freelance energy analyst and journalist); Jerome a Paris (of DKos and the European Tribune, Energy banker based, yes, in Paris, France); Luís de Sousa (of picodopetroleo.net, Assistant Teacher and Researcher at an Institute of Technology in Lisbon); Rembrandt Koppelaar (chairman of ASPO-Netherlands).
That’s a pretty damned amazing staff. Please help me in welcoming them to our little endeavor.
(13 Nov 2006)
Report on the Energy Institute (UK) oil depletion conference
Chris Vernon, The Oil Drum: Europe
On Tuesday 7th November 2006 the Energy Institute (UK) held their annual oil depletion conference, Oil Depletion – Dealing with the Issues. The programme is available here (pdf).
The resource-limited peak in the global production of conventional oil looks to be very close. This peaking of readily available oil supply is likely to be disruptive and to have serious economic consequences. This one-day conference will examine the data and calculations that indicate the peak, and present some of the challenges to be faced. The meeting is of interest to all who have a professional need to understand near and medium term global energy supply. The meeting will conclude with a panel discussion on the implications of the peaking of oil supplies.
I’m only reporting on the first three speakers and Clare Durkin here, apologies to the others.
[ Reports on the presentations by Dr Roger Bentley, Chris Skrebowski, Prof Alex Kemp and Clare Durkin ]
(10 Nov 2006)
According to Euan Mearns, PDFs of the presentations are available online for the next two weeks.
Energy Independence: Kunstler’s advice to the Democrats
James Howard Kunstler, Clusterf*ck Nation
When politicians flog the term around — “energy independence” — they invariably mean that we will continue enjoying the happy motoring utopia by other means than imported oil (which makes up 70 percent of all the oil we burn). Get this: the day is not far off when, for one reason or another, the flow of imported oil to the US will cease. But when that day comes, we will not be running our shit the way we have been running it. That day will be the end of the interstate highways, Walt Disney World, and WalMart — in short, the way of life we are fond of calling “non-negotiable.”
We are not going to run that shit on coal liquids or tar sand byproducts or oil shale distillates or ethanol or biodiesel, or second-hand french-fry oil. Nor on solar, wind, nuclear, or hydrogen. You can run things on that stuff, but not the biggies we run at their current scale. If the Democrats really want to get serious and act responsibly, they’d better not squander whatever is left of our credit and collective confidence in a futile campaign to keep this racket going. They’d better prepare the public to start living differently.
Where to begin?
(13 Nov 2006)
