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Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
Khebab, The Oil Drum
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group. My observations are the following:
- The type III group (~56 countries) seems to have peaked around 1999 at 40 mbpd with an URR around 1.0Tb and a cumulative production of 600 Gb in 2005.
- The decline rate in the group III is currently around 1% per year but will accelerate with time and possibility reach 2% after 2010
- When a high case scenario for the production derived from the Canadian Tar Sands is included, the decline rate will be reduced around 0.5% per year until 2010.
- In order to satisfy a relatively moderate demand growth at 1.5%/year, the supply coming from the type II group should be around 3.5-4.0%/year and reach a production level of 56-59 mbpd in 2010 (from 40 mbpd in 2005).
- The total production from Russia and Saudi Arabia that are leading the type II group, is almost flat since mid-2004 despite record oil prices.
(13 Nov 2006)
Twilight in China
Xiaojie Xu, peakoil.com
A Chinese translation team under my supervision has finalised its translation of respected investment banker Mr. Matt Simmons’ book Twilight in the Desert from English into China. The Twilight Chinese version, coming out in the December 2006, could [be] a starting point to warn Chinese once again and then kick off Chinese review of this wake-up call seriously. As chief translator, I will hold Twilight Chinese version release ceremony in January 2007 in Beijing.
(13 Nov 2006)
The link is to the home page of peakoil.com. There’s no direct link to this item.
Peak oil piques interest at Boston conference
Maureen Morgan, Fairfield County Business Journal
There were beards and dreadlocks, jeans and business suits, academics, environmentalists, entrepreneurs and others concerned about what the future will look like at the end of cheap oil.
The Second Annual 2006 Boston World Oil Conference was the draw, attracting 500 people, including college students and senior citizens worried about the future of their grandchildren.
…Many conference attendees were not newcomers to the subject of peak oil and some were bloggers on the numerous Web sites that cover the on-going drama as the world confronts the end of the oil age, “theoildrum.com” being a particularly popular one.
… A few speakers at the conference approached the topic in a more philosophical tone. Randy Udall, son of former U.S. Representative Morris Udall, described humanity as climbing up the heat ladder, using ever more energy as we rise. According to Udall, we are acting like gods in our seeming control of the universe and the time has come to return to Earth. As serious mountain climbers know, the way down is far more treacherous than the way up.
The most talked about energy option, ethanol, based on corn, did not fair well due to the fact that a barrel of oil is required to produce a barrel of ethanol. Further, the excessive use of farmland at a time when more locally grown crops will be required, suggests serious hurdles for corn ethanol as a solution for anything. The powerful farm lobby has been instrumental in pushing ethanol as a substitute for foreign oil. Bio-fuels could be a better option.
A major theme of the conference was determining the most efficient alternative energy source to augment declining oil resources. What is the return on investment? In other words, how much energy does it take to make energy? There was no consensus on which alternative would be the most effective but all agreed conservation is by far the best strategy upfront.
Most speakers agreed that a severe change in human behavior will be mandatory for survival. For instance, eliminating aggressive driving would save 25 percent of transportation fuel. Further, an extra 1 billion gallons of gasoline per year are used moving the extra poundage now carried by many Americans. Conservation strategies can take many forms. We must explore all of them and with all possible speed to allow us time to develop alternative energy options.
Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at [email protected].
(13 Nov 2006)
Reporter Morgan packs quite a bit of information into this article for a local newspaper. -BA
Dead Dinosaurs
Justin Lahart, Wall Street Journal
Ever since oil prices started falling from their peak levels this summer, investor interest in the idea of peak oil has declined as well.
But peak oil isn’t about the economics of oil but the geology of it. “Price is a very murky window with which to figure out what’s happening with oil supply,” says Ken Deffeyes, a retired Princeton geology professor and leading peak-oil proponent.
Peak-oil theory says that when half of the world’s oil has …
(13 Nov 2006)
The rest of the article is behind a paywall. Kyle at TOD reports:
I’ve read it – it’s just a piece on how the majors are dead money right now, and how the hot funds are all going to the small oil service companies. On the other hand, there is a column on the front page of the Money and Investing section describing peak oil. Other than getting US oil production wrong in their figure (did you know the US produced 20 billion barrels last year, down from 40 billion in the 1970’s!!!), the column was fairly balanced – Deffeyes versus the new Jack play in the Gulf of Mexico.
Calorie, also at TOD, adds:
The article is today’s “Ahead of the Tape” column on page C1. It’s very short but does discuss Hubbert and also includes a chart:
Also on page C1, in another article, Soft Energy Prices May Be Costly Later, is a quote from T. Boone Pickens:
T. Boone Pickens, the energy-investment titan whose investment fund BP Capital Management bets big on higher energy prices, is adamant that oil prices remain on an upward trajectory and probably have bottomed for now. “I think you’ll see $70 oil before $50,” Mr. Pickens says in an interview. “We’re depleting this natural resource. It’s unavoidable.”
Finally, a free article from today’s WSJ:
Renewable Fuels May Provide 25% of U.S. Energy by 2025WASHINGTON — A new Rand Corp. study showing the falling costs of ethanol, wind power and other forms of renewable energy predicts such sources could furnish as much as 25% of the U.S.’s conventional energy by 2025 at little or no additional expense.
A second renewable-energy report soon to be released by the National Academy of Sciences suggests wood chips may become a plentiful source of ethanol and electricity for industrial nations because their forested areas are expanding, led by the U.S. and China.
Peak Oil Guidebook for Sustainable Living Helps Families, Communities
Mick Winter, Westsong Publishing (press release)
“Peak Oil Prep – Three Things You Can Do to Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Economic Collapse”. New guidebook for sustainable living helps families and communities use less energy, save money, and improve their security and well-being. Trade paperback released by Westsong Publishing, Napa Valley, California.
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Even those who don’t accept the likelihood of [Peak Oil], can–and should–still take action simply to improve their quality of life. They can save money, bring their family closer together, enjoy a healthier and more sustainable lifestyle, and improve the security and well-being of their community.
This 246-page book is filled with suggestions and tips on how to live more sustainably and cope with the threats facing our country and our planet. The book is written by Mick Winter, host of the popular Peak Oil websites DryDipstick.com and BeyondPeak.com.
The suggestions in “Peak Oil Prep” will help people save money and fight global warming by using less energy in their everyday living. They’ll discover tips on low-cost heating, cooling, and lighting in their home. They’ll get ideas on how to survive with little or no use of a car, how to improve their health, eat better yet still save on food bills, and supplement or replace their current income. And they’ll learn ways to help, and benefit from, their neighbors and their community.
“Peak Oil Prep” gives people the tools and information they need to save energy and money, and live more sustainably. List price is $16.95 (ISBN 0965900045). The book is now available through local bookstores, Amazon.com, BarnesandNoble.com, Borders.com and at www.PeakOilPrep.com. Retailers may order through Ingram and Baker & Taylor.
(13 Nov 2006)
More PO readership locations – Hello Kazakhstan and Mongolia
Big Gav, Peak Energy (Australia)
Energy Bulletin and Peak Oil.com have noticed an upsurge in Chinese readers recently. While I’ve also noticed visitors from China recently (a few months ago I would see the occasional visitor from Hong Kong and Taiwan, but none from the mainland, so presumably the great firewall has a hole through to Peak Energy now), the number is still very small compared to elsewhere (even various countries in Africa and South America). On the note of readers in far away places, I’d like to say a big hello to whoever has been reading in Kazakhstan and Mongolia…
(13 Nov 2006)
