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The world’s shortest Peak Oil article
Jeffrey J. Brown, EnergyBulletin
Three points:
(1) Mathematically, based on the Hubbert Linearization method, the world is now where the Lower 48 and the North Sea peaked and declined (all crude + condensate).
(2) Through July, 2006 (based on EIA Data), the world has produced about 142 million barrels less oil than if we had simply maintained the 12/05 production rate. This is a shortfall of about 675,000 bpd. During this time period, oil prices traded in the highest (nominal) price range in history.
(3) We are virtually certain that all four oil fields currently producing one mbpd or more are in decline (we are certain that three of the four are in decline).
Given the foregoing, what is the probability that the observed production decline is a coincidence, and not the onset of a permanent decline in conventional crude + condensate production?
Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is [email protected]
(13 Oct 2006)
Large increase of Peak Oil coverage in printed press
J L Howard, PowerSwitch.Org.Uk
The report, a crude statistical analysis of printed press coverage of ‘Peak Oil’ over the last decade shows:
– A 2,670% increase in coverage of Peak Oil over the last decade
– The Peak Oil debate in the mainstream press began in earnest in 2002-03 and has been growing ever since
– The mainstream press is giving more coverage to water crises
– Energy Security is the preferred phrase of the mainstream press for the issues raised by Peak Oil
– The ‘War on Terror’ gets much more coverage than ‘Climate Change’ which in turn dwarfs the coverage ‘Peak Oil’ receives
The full report can be read at:
www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/images/stories/papers/poitmacsr.pdf
(13 Oct 2006)
NYT: The Deathwatch for Cheap Oil
Paul B. Brown, New York Times
THOSE falling prices at the gasoline pump may only be temporary. Indeed, they could signal the start of an era in which, forecasters say, “the death of cheap, abundant crude might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.”
“Peak oil is a reality,” says Willem Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser quoted by Bloomberg Markets magazine. He is just one of many who believe that global oil production is now at or near its peak, and the only place to go is down.
(14 Oct 2006)
Peak oil makes it into a news round-up column of the business section of the New York Times. It’s followed by a news snippet on the profits of the Rolling Stones’ lates tour, which is deemed apparently not-quite-as-important as peak oil. The Bloomberg article in question is archived on energybulletin.net. In February NYT editorial page staffer Robert Semple Jr. wrote a very decent peak oil article, however it did not make the print edition and was available only online and behind a paywall. -AF
Swan Dive
James Howard Kunstler, Clusterfuck Nation
Against the background of everything else happening in the financial markets is the apparent circumstance of peak oil. Even The New York Times joined the chorus in a Sunday editorial, saying:
Our demand for petroleum products strains the limits of the global capacity to supply them. In past decades, if a pipeline broke in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia might compensate by setting workers to pumping more oil. Now, with little additional capacity, rising prices are necessary to balance out supply and demand.
No more increasing capacity = peak oil.
…This is why I view the fall melt-up of the stock markets as a swan dive. We’re at the apogee now, just as the world is at the apogee of its oil production. I confess, I thought the reality of our economic predicament would be recognized by the playas and their markets sooner than it has. It turns out the the chief luxury of the final cheap oil blowout has been the artificial support of unrealistic hopes and expectations.
(9 Oct 2006)
Peak oil and tradable paper currencies
James Howard Kunstler, Daily Reckoning
… We now have nine and a half months of “rearview mirror” action to look back and see that world oil production has retreated from its all-time high of just over 85 million barrels a day (m/b/d) achieved in December 2005 (just as geologist Kenneth Deffeyes of Princeton had predicted). For 2006, production has remained in the 84 m/b/d range every month reported so far, while demand has exceeded that. …
Peak oil and tradable paper currencies: An end to industrial expansion
Where finance is concerned, the basic implication of peak oil is pretty stark: an end to industrial expansion (i.e. “growth”). All the alternatives to oil will not keep the industrial economies expanding – they can only slow down a contraction, and only marginally so. The trouble with this picture is that finance is a system that uses paper markers to represent the hope and expectation for the expansion of wealth. These markers are currencies, stocks, bonds, option contracts, derivatives plays, and other certificates that are traded in open markets. If there is no longer any hope of increased wealth in the world, then all those tradable paper markers become losers. Their value unwinds and imagined piles of wealth evaporate into thin air.
(12 Oct 2006)
Peak Oil naysayers partying on for growth
Jan Lundberg, Culture Change
Contents:
This quaint little culture of growth
Our oil price & supply mini-analysis
Palast’s polemic punctured
Ideologically very wealthy, modern citizens and their less successful emulators hide behind the religion of economic growth, puffing up their chests to speak so assuredly that there can be no long-term shortage of oil or energy. They adhere to neoclassical economics that claims resources are available according to price/supply/technological factors, not based on natural limits.
The rest of the religious litany for growth relies on the unproven carrot “a rising tide lifts all boats.” However, trickle down was already discredited even before Reaganism. The wasted ’80s should have taught us all we needed to know. But no. Despite the worsening of key indicators such as real income, energy security and environmental quality, the same people and system remain on top, screaming for more growth. Thrift and conserving are discouraged, and record indebtedness encouraged, as economists cheer on consumer buying-power as the driver behind the global economy.
(12 Oct 2006)
Energy expert Hughes gives preview of talk at ASPO (audio)
Marc Strassman, etopiamedia
Energy expert David Hughes talks about peak oil, natural gas, Canada’s role in the production of hydrocarbons, and the ASPO-USA 2006 Boston World Oil Conference, “Time for Action: A Midnight Ride for Peak Oil,” scheduled for October 26-27, 2006, in Boston, Massachusetts.
David Hughes, who works for the Geological Survey of Canada, will be presenting on “Natural Gas in North America” and “Nonconventional oil in a global context” at the upcoming ASPO-USA meeting.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas-USA (ASPO-USA) is a non-profit, non-partisan research and public education initiative to address America’s peak oil energy challenge and is the U.S. branch of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO).
ASPO-USA is convening its second annual conference on October 26-27, 2006, on the campus of Boston University in Boston, Massachusetts.
(11 Oct 2006)
Audio: Andrews & Lawrence on ASPO USA Boston Conference
Julian Darley, Global Public Media
Julian Darley of Global Public Media speaks with ASPO USA’s Steve Andrews and Dick Lawrence, who are preparing for the second ASPO USA World Oil Conference. The conference takes place at Boston University in Boston, Massachusetts on October 26 and 27, with pre-events on the 25th and post events on the 28th.
In addition to Matthew Simmons and Robert Kaufmann, conference speakers will include Ali Samsam Bakhtiari of the National Iranian Oil Company (retired); Arthur Smith, CEO of John S. Herold, Inc.; Roger Bezdek, President of MISI and co-author of the Hirsch-Bezdek Report; Professor Cutler Cleveland of CEES at BU; Dave Hughes, Geological Survey of Canada; Jeremy Gilbert, Chief Engineer, BP (retired), Richard Heinberg, journalist and educator; Julian Darley of Post Carbon Institute; Milton Maciel, former Agricultural Minister in Brazil, organic farmer, consultant, author, and sugar cane-to-ethanol expert; and many others. For more information see the ASPO USA website.
(13 Oct 2006)
Peak Moment Television Episode Guide- new content
Global Public Media
Peak Moment: Community Responses For a Changing Energy Future are weekly 28-minute programs featuring host Janaia Donaldson’s conversations and on-site tours with guests. It highlights practical solutions and responses towards a lower-energy, more connected, sustainable life. How can we thrive, build stronger communities, and help one another in this time of transition?
12 October 2006: Several new episodes and audio files added!
(12 Oct 2006)
