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World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
Luís de Sousa, The Oil Drum
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.
Introduction
Although the debate is growing around the point in time when global oil production starts to decline permanently, for countries or regions where oil production is null or very low, the amount of oil available for trade in the market is a much more relevant issue. Such is the case of the European Union; with oil consumption topping 14.5 Mb/d, only two of its member states figure in the exporting countries list, and both with marginal numbers. More than worrying with a Peak Oil date, importing countries should worry on the future availability of tradable oil.
It is therefore of the highest importance for importing countries to know in advance the amount of oil available to the market, and from which countries/regions it may come, in order to prepare correctly for the future.
(10 Oct 2006)
Oil price volatility and possible consequences
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
Over the course of this past week I happened to be at lunch with a senior state official who is closely involved in the development of alternate sources of energy for the state. As we discussed some of the current fluctuations in the market, and their impact on upcoming decisions by the state on investment, the current drop in oil price brought back, to both of us, memories of the `80’s. Back in those days industry and the Federal Government were investing heavily in alternate sources of energy. And then the taps were opened in KSA and the price of oil dropped, and all those programs stopped. The investments were written off.
So here we are, with the world beginning, yet again, major investments in alternate sources of energy, and the official was becoming nervous that we are about to see history repeat itself. The concern is sufficient that a significant state investment is being postponed a year to see how the events of the next few months play out. Are we again going to see companies lose large amounts of money chasing technologies that will no longer be needed ? While I argued against such a decision, the nervousness and resulting caution is not restricted to one state official. I commented earlier in the week about the concerns I have heard from those in the oil industry, about the possible drop in prices. They’ve been here before, and barely survived the last drop and so are much more cautious this time.
(8 Oct 2006)
Lower gas prices won’t last, say UC-Davis professors
E. Ashley Wright, The California Aggie
(DAVIS, Calif.) – Although consumers may be pleased with the price breaks they have recently received at the gas pumps, oil-consumption experts warn that the long-term effects of depletion may result in higher prices in the near future. Several explanations for the lower prices, down $0.077 per gallon since last week and $0.290 since October, 2005, have been given since costs dipped below $3 per gallon, one of which is political.
With the mid-term elections approaching, Democratic Party candidates and critics have speculated that the Republican administration is manipulating prices to offset criticism of the party’s stringent energy platform.
However, according to David Osleger, a member of the University of California at Davis geology department and former geologist for the Gulf Oil Corporation, the price of oil-per-barrel is constantly fluctuating and cannot be accounted for by any particular factor.
“The thing about oil prices is that it is so utterly unpredictable,” he said. “There is no real grand scheme of setting the price of gas at the pump. It is all a reaction to global events and the rapidity of changes regarding issues in the Middle East, the repairing of pipelines in Alaska, Venzuela’s president and numerous other things.”
Osleger added that he feels gas prices could not realistically be affected by political motivations.
“There are so many variables that go into prices at the pump that I cannot conceive a way that the Republican administration could manipulate price,” he said.
John Theobald, chairperson of the University of California’s Oil Forum and professor at UC Davis, said politics are often involved in petroleum-based energy issues.
“That may be a factor, but not an important one,” he said. “I would concede that some political manipulation of price is possible, but the important point is that prices will be rising in the long run.”
(9 Oct 2006)
EU oil imports set to grow by 29% by 2012
Cry Wolf, The Oil Drum / UK
An oil production, consumption, import-export model for the 25 EU states (plus Norway, Iceland and Switzerland) is presented, based on data published in the 2006 BP statistical review.
Applying a 0.5% growth in consumption and a 8% production decline rate points to EU oil imports growing from 9.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2005 to 12.6 million bpd by 2012 – an increase of 29% over the next 6 years.
The EU will have to “fight” for these additional resources in an oil import market already hot with competition from the USA, China and other developing countries.
(3 Oct 2006)
Putin Suggests Creation of Oil Exchange in St. Petersburg
Mosnews
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested creation of oil and oil product exchange in St. Petersburg. He made the suggestion on Saturday, Oct. 7, during his meeting with the governor of St. Petersburg Valentina Matvienko.
Speaking with Matvienko, Putin said that the Russian government has almost completed development of the concept for creation of such exchange in the country. The President added that his colleagues from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan already expressed interest in this venture.
Putin said that the oil and oil product exchange can be located in St. Petersburg. “I believe that it would be a landmark event for the whole of Russia and for St. Petersburg,” Putin said, quoted by RIA Novosti. ..
(9 Oct 2006)
America’s dirty secret: India becomes the gasoline gusher
Randeep Ramesh, Guardian
Subcontinent to fill the petrol production gap in the United States and Europe
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Sitting on the edge of the water in the Gulf of Kutch on India’s western shore is one of America’s dirty secrets. A mass of steel pipes and concrete boxes stretches across 13 square miles (33sq km) – a third of the area of Manhattan – which will eventually become the world’s largest petrochemical refinery.
The products from the Jamnagar complex are for foreign consumption. When complete, the facility will be able to refine 1.24m barrels of crude a day. Two-fifths of this gasoline will be sent 9,000 miles (15,000km) by sea to America.
(11 Oct 2006)
How Hot Money Inflames Oil Prices
Christopher Palmeri, BusinessWeek Online via Yahoo!
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There’s been an ongoing debate since energy prices began their steep rise four years ago: Was the money pouring into the oil patch from mutual funds, traders, hedge funds, and other financial players pushing up the prices that consumers pay to heat their homes and fill their gas tanks? In other words, was hot money behind the sharp rise in energy prices?
Well, now the hot money is moving out of energy, and it seems clear that it’s adding just as much volatility to prices as they move down as when they were moving up.
(11 Oct 2006)
