Geopolitics – Sept 11

September 11, 2006

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US accused of covert operations in Somalia

Antony Barnett and Patrick Smith, The Observer
Dramatic evidence that America is involved in illegal mercenary operations in east Africa has emerged in a string of confidential emails seen by The Observer. The leaked communications between US private military companies suggest the CIA had knowledge of the plans to run covert military operations inside Somalia – against UN rulings – and they hint at involvement of British security firms.

The emails, dated June this year, reveal how US firms have been planning undercover missions in support of President Abdullahi Yusuf’s transitional federal government – founded with UN backing in 2004 – against the Supreme Islamic Courts Council – a radical Muslim militia which took control of Mogadishu, the country’s capital, also in June promising national unity under Sharia law.

Evidence of foreign involvement in the conflict would not only breach the UN arms embargo but could destabilise the entire region.
(10 Sept 2006)
Although Somali has no proven oil reserves, many oil companies apparently hold hopes of future exploration and discovery, if only they could get into the country. Nothing to do with the covert military support for pro-western forces in Somalia, surely. -LJ


‘Resource nationalism’ is squeezing oil users

Barbara Lewis and Simon Webb, Reuters via Gulf Times (Qatar)
LONDON: High crude prices have widened the rift between consuming nations, hungry for oil now, and producers who argue they must manage their reserves for the future.

Britain used the latest technology to pump as much North Sea oil as possible and now its fields are declining at the fastest rate in the world.

At the other extreme, under-explored Libya, whose oil development was hobbled by years of international sanctions, has rising production rates and great potential.

Libya and other fellow Opec members hold most of the cards as major oil companies struggle to find new areas to operate profitably.

Although the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping at near capacity, high prices that touched a record of $78.65 in August mean it is earning enough to feel it can switch the discourse to the longer term.

“A man with a mortgage has to go to work. A man without a mortgage has the choice. Opec suddenly has so much money it can make that choice,” said Chris Skrebowski of London’s Energy Institute.

“The West is rapidly losing the levers to make Opec pump.” A wave of resource nationalism, spearheaded by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, plays well to domestic audiences and is making resource holders focus on keeping reserves, central to their economies, for themselves and for the future.
(10 Sept 2006)


Gas Pressure destabilising Yushchenko

Sergey Sidorenko, Alexander Chernovalov and Sergey Strokan, The Kommersant
Ukraine’s Supreme Rada assembled yesterday to discuss the agreement with Russia on natural gas and fired the country’s government, accusing it of “inability to defend national interests.” In response, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko threatened to dismiss the parliament and his party, Our Ukraine, called for direct presidential rule until parliamentary elections in March. Although the current government is continuing to function, the ministers are being called “acting.” This is a heavy blow to Yushchenko, not least because big business is supporting the opposition. Ukrainian industrialists are not happy with the agreement or with the government. ..

Addressing the Rada yesterday, Prime Minister Yury Ekhanurov gave a long but vague explanation of how Ukraine will “unconditionally win” from the new contract because “$95 is not bad price for gas considering European market conditions.” He said that it was impossible to preserve the barter system with the price of $50 per 1000 cu. m., although Ukrainian negotiators were considering moving the conflict into the courts. “We could go into retreat and not sign any documents. But a trial in the Stockholm court would last several months, if not years. Who would our victory help if we go without gas for several years with ruined industry and social services?” Ekhanurov asked rhetorically.

He also said that, because of the unexpected success of negotiations, the government would not raise gas prices to the public by 25 percent, as it had decided to do before the end of last year.
(11 Sept 2006)


Japan nervous over Russia’s Sakhalin lawsuit

AUTHOR, Yomiuri Shimbun (Japan)
Japanese energy and gas firms planning to import oil and natural gas from Sakhalin suffered a setback after the Russian environmental regulator filed a suit seeking to revoke approval for the Sakhalin-2 oil project.

If the project is suspended for an extended period, Japanese companies counting on natural resources from the Russian island will have to find other suppliers, which will not be easy. ..

The island started producing and exporting crude oil in 1999, with exports to Japan beginning in 2001. In 2005, the area provided Japan with 10.89 million barrels, accounting for about 1 percent of the country’s crude oil imports. The new pipeline, scheduled to start operating in late 2007, will allow crude oil to be exported round-the-clock. ..

The project cost has already doubled to 2 trillion yen from the initially projected cost due to the increase in environmentally-related expenses. ..
(11 Sept 2006)


Tags: Fossil Fuels, Oil