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Opposition demands ‘true’ reserve figures in Kuwait
Jyotsna Ravishankar, ITP.net
Kuwait’s opposition alliance, which swept to victory in parliamentary elections on June 30th, will reject a government plan to raise oil production capacity in the light of reports that the country’s reserves are half the official figure, a leading opposition MP said.
“We will work to introduce key changes to the government oil policy in a bid to halt plans that aim to raise oil production, because such plans are unnecessary,” liberal MP Abdullah Al Nibari said.
A group of lawmakers in the previous parliament had submitted a bill that would limit Kuwait’s annual production to 1% of proven reserves.
Based on official reserve figures this would freeze Kuwait’s production at 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), scuppering its plans for a massive production increase.
But if lower, more conservative figures are taken into account – some opposition leaders want to – then Kuwait would have to halve its current production, which would drive world prices higher…
The international oil newsletter Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported in January, that proven reserves were only 24 billion barrels and the rest were probable reserves.
“The information I have obtained through my sources and based on official figures I saw when I was an MP considerably support the PIW report,” Nibari said in remarks published in an AFP report.
Kuwait energy minister, Sheikh Ahmad Al Sabah has not yet given a categoric reserve figure since the report was published.
(4 July 2006)
This edition also includes reader feedback to an earlier article ‘Is peak oil pure fiction?‘ -AF
George Soros on peak oil
Susanna Schrobsdorff, Newsweek
… Q: Isn’t the Middle East already pretty unstable?
A: Not only is the Middle East unstable, but the whole world order has been shaken as a result of the Bush administration’s policies. They have taken a nationalist approach and nationalism is spreading throughout the world. It is a very unstable world.
Q: How is this situation affecting the global economy?
A: We are facing a global energy crisis which is very complex because it has many ingredients, starting with global warming and the peaking of oil discoveries. And there’s the dependence of many of the major industrial countries on sources of energy from politically unstable areas of the world and the behavior of some of the energy rich countries like Iran and Venezuela and Russia exploiting the high price of oil and their control of the supply. So we are in fact in a global energy crisis. That instability has certainly added $20-$30 to the price of oil.
(5 July 2006)
An excerpt from a two-page interview titled “America the Dangerous?” In the interview, Soros criticizes the U.S. “War on Terror,” in terms similar to those used by 100 foreign policy experts in a survey conducted by Foreign Policy magazine. Other coverage by Agence France-Presse and Kevin Drum. -BA
Soros refers to peak oil discoveries, which actually occured in the 1960s. Presumably he actually meant peak oil production. -AF
Oil will hit well over $100 and stay high – Rogers
Rogers, Reuters
Oil prices will soar to well over $100 a barrel and stay high as part of a sustained commodities bull run that has another 15 years to run, billionaire U.S. investor Jim Rogers told Reuters in an interview.
One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets.
“We’re going to have high oil prices for a very long time. The surprise is going to be how high it goes,” Rogers said.
Reiterating earlier comment oil prices would hit at least $100 a barrel, he said: “It will be much more than $100 before the bull market is over”.
U.S. light sweet crude hit a new record of $75.40 a barrel on Wednesday and was trading at close to $75 on Thursday.
Rogers, a former investment partner of billionaire fund manager George Soros, has predicted the commodities bull run has at least 15 years to run.
“It’s a major long-term bull market as far as I’m concerned,” he said.
Aside from the bullish impact of tensions, described by Rogers as temporary, over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and North Korea’s missile tests, he said oil was drawing long-term support from the lack of large scale finds.
He did not know whether the Peak Oil theory that oil supplies are either at or very near their peak was correct.
But said: “If there is oil out there, you had better find it soon.”
(6 July 2006)
While Rogers’ and Soros’ positions on peak oil aren’t too clear, at least two other multi-billionaires have spoken out strongly about peak oil: Richard Rainwater and T. Boone Pickens. -AF
Audio/video resources
Matthew Simmons talk at Cambridge Forum (audio and video)
Matthew Simmons, Cambridge Forum via WGBH
Oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his extensive experience in the global energy market to assess the future of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity. In his new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, Simmons argues that Saudi reserves could soon face a serious and irreversible decline, and considers what the world will look like when Saudi petroleum reserves peak. How high will prices rise? What impact will shortages have on the growing, energy hungry economies of India and China? Rather than hope for the discovery of new oil resources, Simmons presents a blueprint for a new global economy as the age of cheap oil ends. How important is conservation? Which alternative energy sources are most promising? Matthew Simmons is chairman of Simmons & Company International, a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in the energy industry. He is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations.
(12 June 2006)
The End of Suburbia promo…
Barry Silverthorn
is finally ready for public consumption.
Less than a year to make the documentary…more than two years
to get around to making a 3-minute promo.
On YouTube.com
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM
It’s also available on Google Video:
video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5459242714549184261
(1 July 2006)
Robert Newman’s History of Oil (video)
Robert Newman via Google Video
Robert Newman gets to grips with the wars and politics of the last hundred years – but rather than adhering to the history we were fed at … all » school, the places oil centre stage as the cause of all commotion. This innovative history programme is based around Robert Newman’s stand-up act and supported by resourceful archive sequences and stills with satirical impersonations of historical figures from Mayan priests to Archduke Ferdinand. Quirky details such as a bicycle powered street lamp on the stage brings home the pertinent question of just how we are going to survive when the world’s oil supplies are finally exhausted.
Some of the themes in a “History of Oil”:
1:30 “Marching to the drums” (UK and resource wars)
4:36 “Bringing a better democracy” (Iran)
9:40 “World War I: an Invasion of Iraq”
15:40 “Thou shalt steal oil”
21:22 “The Euro theory for the war in Iraq”
34:30 “Peak Oil”exhausted.
(July 2006)
Other Newman links:
Newman website
It’s capitalism or a habitable planet – you can’t have both (comment by Robert Newman)
-BA
