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A Critique of the 2006 EIA International Energy Outlook
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
…the US EIA released the 2006 International Energy Outlook (IEO) yesterday morning. This is an annual exercise they have been doing since 1985 to project energy supply/demand out into the future – currently to 2030.
[graph] As you can see – the future is bright to the EIA, unless perhaps you own beachfront or stormbelt property, in which case expect lots of wind and water. It will perhaps come as no surprise that I don’t agree with their projections. Below are some critiques (mainly confining myself to the oil supply issues – others may want to take on the other fuels).
… In short, the EIA generally operates by projecting recent history into the future, and doesn’t typically recognize turning points until some time after they have been turned. In fairness, it is generally very hard to predict turning points in complex systems, and especially hard to call the timing of them well.
…I think this tends to support what many of us suspected about the EIA projections: they start with what they think will be a politically acceptable demand projection, and then tweak the supply assumptions to add up to that.
…In summary, the EIA is now assuming less OPEC production and higher prices in the future, causing more use of unconventional oil. However, this is assumed to have very slight effects on overall supply, and no material impact on economic growth. Individual detailed elements of the projection are looking increasingly implausible, and I expect significant continued movement in the projection over the next few years as it slowly catches up with the unfolding reality.
(21 June 2006)
Oil consumption seen soaring
Reuters via CNN Money
Much of world’s growth will take place in Asia, although U.S. will still use the most; OPEC needed to meet bulk of demand, EIA says.
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WASHINGTON – World oil demand should soar from this year’s almost 86 million barrels per day to 118 million bpd by 2030, even though higher fuel prices will cut back some petroleum usage, the U.S. government’s top energy forecasting agency predicted Tuesday.
Much of the growth in global oil consumption over the next quarter century will come from the non-industrialized nations in Asia, where the strong economies of China and India will gobble up more barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.
“Much of the world’s incremental oil demand is projected for use in the transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum,” EIA said in its annual long-term international energy supply and demand forecast.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will provide a large chunk of the additional oil supplies that will be needed to meet demand in 2030, the EIA said.
(20 June 2006)
ASPO international conference in Pisa, Italy, July 18-19
ASPO Italia
he Fifth International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO-5) will be held in San Rossore (near Pisa) in Italy, on July 18-19 2006. Previous ASPO conferences were held in Lisbon (2005), Berlin (2004), Paris (2003) and Uppsala (2002).
The objective of the ASPO-5 conference is to raise the awareness of the impending peak of oil extraction and the general phenomenon of depletion of all mineral resources. For this purpose, international experts will evaluate the consistence of the resources, assess the effects of depletion on society and economy, and discuss dynamic models able to help us understand the present and future situation. The conference will also examine the need for political action to reduce the impact of depletion. The submission of communications for oral and poster presentation is welcome.
Preliminary program
(June 2006)
Mentioned by Chris Vernon at The Oil Drum / UK .
We Need A Change in Energy Policy As Well As in Government
Rt. Hon. Michael Meacher MP, ISIS
Unhealthy dependency on oil
I was asked to speak on what should the Government do in order to get out of the energy crisis. The way the public debate is going at the present time that might be seen as meaning, is it going to be nuclear? Or is it going to be renewables? And that, of course, is not actually the most important issue. There are two aspects of this because energy is needed to generate electricity, but energy is also needed for transportation systems.
The scale of change required in the world economy as we approach and soon gradually pass peak oil is really nothing less than apocalyptic. Our whole civilization depends on oil. Our industries are dependent on it, our mechanised industrialised agriculture is dependent on it, our transportation system, planes and cars obviously, and you cannot fight a military campaign, or engage in any serious long-term military activity without oil.
Already four fifths of the world’s oil supply comes from fields that were discovered before 1970. Even if we were to find a field like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, which is far and away the world’s largest; again, that is exceedingly unlikely given the advance of geological knowledge in the last thirty years, it would only meet world demand for about another ten years. So what is to be done?
(22 June 2006)
Michael Meacher was for six years the Environment Minister in Tony Blair’s government.
