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Letters to the editor: peak oil
Byron W. King, Whiskey & Gunpowder
My articles on Kuwaiti oil reserves, oil reserve estimation, and the president’s State of the Union speech generated a lot of thoughtful commentary from the readers. We appreciate that you take the time to think about what we are writing, and even more that you care enough to comment. Here is a sampling, starting with an e-mail to Greg Grillot from Bob in Upland, Calif.:
Byron does understand oil. Would it be an imposition for him to tell us when he feels we will see $100 oil so I can look for some profits in my oil investments?
…I received another e-mail from David, a professor of chemistry at an Ivy League university. David said:
“It would be great if the Peak Oil crowd was as nuts as people say (ed: Oh yeah? Smile when you say that, pal). But I’ve looked at it as much as a non-oil specialist can look at it and still hold down a job. I concluded that it is a scary scenario. What is particularly problematic for me is that my training as a physical scientist helps me see the proposed alternative energy technologies for what they are — a load of baloney in many cases.
“I spent a particularly harrowing hour with a high-ranking official from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency who answers directly to President Bush. He was not a tree hugger but he sure took Peak Oil seriously. I asked him for his best guess on the date and he said, ‘2010.’ Of course, that answer is becoming a little too common for comfort. It is scary. We talked about the alternatives and he could not have painted a more gruesome picture. He also expressed utter amazement at the complete lack of attention to the issue.”
(14 February 2006)
Lester Brown on wind power and Chinese consumption growth (transcript and video)
E&E TV
China’s rampant economic growth has led to a huge upswing in natural resources consumption and energy demand, forcing the country’s leaders towards major policy decisions on environmental issues. During today’s OnPoint, Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, discusses the changes underway in China and the path ahead for other developing nations. Brown, author of the book “Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble,” also discusses the growing wind industry and why policymakers should support renewable energy before turning to nuclear power or biofuels.
(15 February 2006)
Farm economist: Bad news on energy costs
David Bennett, Delta Farm Press
…Even without the news [about oil reserves] out of Kuwait, Rob Hogan would have had a hard time finding anything positive about energy-related costs for the 2006 cropping year.
“They brought in the pin-headed economist to give you the bad news,” said the Arkansas Extension economist/farm management specialist at the Arkansas Seed Growers Association meeting in Brinkley, Ark., on Jan 19. “Producers in business are still around because they’re the cream of the crop. They’re the best around. There aren’t any part-time producers left. If they are, they don’t depend on agriculture for a living. The fact that you folks are still in business means something. You’re as good as it gets, as flexible as it gets.”
Over the last 12 months, the price of crude oil has gone up about $19 per barrel, or 42 percent.
“Any way you cut it, that’s a lot. Wouldn’t it be nice if (agriculture commodities) went up 42 percent? All petroleum derivatives have been affected by the crude oil price. That has caused increased production costs for farmers.
…Hogan said this is what the numbers above will mean to producers:
• Diesel fuel at about $2.55 per gallon.
• Urea costs near $420 per ton.
• Potash will cost around $315 per ton.
• Increased irrigation costs of 65 percent to 75 percent.
(15 February 2006)
OPEC Output Down 120,000 bpd in January
Platts, RigZone
Overall crude production by oil cartel OPEC fell again in January, dropping by 120,000 barrels per day to 29.68 million barrels per day (mil b/d) from December’s 29.8-mil b/d, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed February 13.
That figure includes Iraqi production at 1.53-mil b/d. Excluding Iraq, which does not participate in OPEC output accords, the ten members with crude
production quotas pumped an average 28.15-mil b/d in January, 100,000 b/d down from December’s 28.25-mil b/d and just 150,000 b/d above their 28-mil b/d ceiling.
The latest estimates show OPEC volumes at their lowest level in almost a year and mark the second consecutive month that OPEC production has been below 30-mil b/d. Platts estimates last year showed volumes averaging 29.58-mil b/d in February, 29.83-mil b/d in March and 29.96-mil b/d in April, before rising to 30.02-mil b/d in May. Overall production held above 30-mil b/d until December 2005.
There were no increases to offset the production losses seen in six countries.
“Despite marginal falls in individual production levels, OPEC is still pumping nearly flat out in the face of high prices,” said John Kingston.
(14 Feb 2006)
This appears to be the fourth month in a row that OPEC production has dropped. -AF
The Long Plateau of Peak Oil
Tom Standing, ASPO USA newsletter via EV World
Oil’s peak will be signaled by a decade-long plateau in non-OPEC member production
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When might the peak of world oil production arrive, and what might be the peak production rate? These are key questions, with many unknowns but few equations. The most we can do is to make some educated guesses based on past observations.
Global oil production’s peak will probably not form a well-defined crest. Instead, it will likely stretch out as an irregular plateau. I will crawl out onto the limb to say that the plateau might begin around 2010 and extend to 2020. The highest sustained level of crude oil production might be 10 million b/d greater than production for 2006, a gain of about 15%.
(14 Feb 2006)
Tom Standing argues that “applying Dr. Hubbert’s methods to the entire world is impossible, due to the lack of drilling and discovery data by most producer nations.” He suggests instead “tracking actual production rates of producer nations and relating those rates to exploratory and development activity can provide clues to near-term future production.” In terms of its attention to short term detail, this approach sounds not unlike Chris Skrebowski’s Megaprojects updates, although this approach seems to confirm Colin Campbell’s slightly less optimistic projections. -AF
Our Mr. Sun (1956)
DMC, Energy Bulletin
A 1956 childrens’ educational movie called “Our Mr. Sun (1956)”, by Frank Capra, now available on DVD, discusses the problem of oil and coal depletion.
Any person with a Grade 5 education who understands english will be able to understand the problem of oil depletion after seeing this movie.
The movie was produced and directed by Frank Capra, and stars:
-Dr Frank Baxter as “Dr Research”:
-Eddie Albert ( TVs “Green Acres”) as “The Fiction Writer”
-Lionel Barrymore as the Voice of ” Father Time”
-Sterling Holloway as voice of “Chloro Phyll”
-Marvin Miller as the Voice of ” Mr Sun”
In “Our Mr Sun” a Dr. Baxter and Eddie Albert (TV’s “Green Acres”) meet Old Sol and Father Time to discover how the rays from Our Mr. Sun affect the Earth, featuring incredible nature footage and brilliant animation.
In the last part of “Our Mr Sun” the future problem of oil depletion, the world’s energy resources (oil, gas and coal) is presented as energy currency in an energy bank, where annual withdrawals greatly exceed annual deposits from Solar (Plants) and Nuclear Energy. The movie forecasts the potential end of the “machine age” when the available oil and coal runs out; and a return to the “middle ages” where a return to human and animal power is required. However human and animal power can only sustain a world population of 500 Million. The movie believes that with more research far more effcient solar enegy capturing processes will be found that will solve the upcoming energy shortage problem. The world will move from the “Machine age” to the “Sun age”, where all our energy needs will come from solar energy.
Links: IMDB | Amazon
(17 Feb 2006)
DMC notes “The belief in [solar] research is based on a belief that mankind has a special place in the universe which enable it to find a solution (Anthropic Principle).
Aside: Perhaps current reseach in Nano Technology applied to solar enegy may prove the movie right
(Reference : Sargent, Ted pages 83 -101, Chapter 4: Energise; The Dance of Molecules , How Naootechnology is changing Our lives, Ted Sargent Viking Canada , 2005; www.penguin.ca.”
