The Peak Oil Crisis: New Years 2006
Falls Church News Press
It’s a good time to review — looking backwards at what we learned in 2005 and forward at what might be in store for 2006.
During the past year, the average price of oil increased 33 percent almost matching the 34 percent increase of 2004. If one wants to think of peak oil just as steadily increasing prices, then we are clearly on our way. Since 2001, oil prices have nearly tripled.
(5 Jan 2006)
An excellent introduction to the current state of play regarding Peak Oil and recent significant events. -AF
Audio: Robert Hirsch on peak oil mitigation
David Room, Global Public Media
GPM’s David Room talks with Robert Hirsch, PhD and senior energy program advisor at Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) about peak oil and his Department of Energy-commissioned report of February 2005, “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management”. Download a PDF of the report here.
Robert Hirsch on peak oil: “This problem is truly frightening. This problem is like nothing that I have ever seen in my lifetime, and the more you think about it and the more you look at the numbers, the more uneasy any observer gets. It’s so easy to sound alarmist, and I fear that part of what I’m saying may sound alarmist, but there simply is no question that the risks here are beyond anything that any of us have ever dealt with. And the risks to our economies and our civilization are enormous.”
(Recorded on 17 Nov 2005)
Robert Hirsch Tells It Like It Is…
Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
One of the leading figures in the peak oil community is Robert Hirsch. I have written about him previously at Transition Culture, his ‘Hirsch Report’ has been hailed by many as one of the most important pieces of research in this area. The report was asked to look at how far in advance it would take to prepare for the peak, rather than when the peak would be. The results shocked even Hirsch and his team. The scale and magnitude of the challenge they identified was such that Hirsch admits to feeling overwhelmed; it took a few months before he felt able to go out into the world and be constructive and positive about the challenge of oil peak. Hirsch has not given that many interviews (at least not many that I have come across..), so I was fascinated to see that David Room of Global Public Media has just posted an interview with Hirsch. It is fascinating, sobering and illuminating listening.
(3 Jan 2006)
If you can’t listen to Hirsch interview, at least read Rob Hopkin’s analysis -AF
Leaders ignore oil depletion
Charlie Smith, Straight.com
Try to imagine what your life would be like if you didn’t have complete access to your bank account. Let’s say that Parliament passed a new law preventing you from withdrawing more than $250 per week, regardless of how much money you owned. Would you still be able to cover your car payments, your mortgage, or even buy enough food for your family?
This occurred in Argentina in 2001, prompting mass protests and the resignation of three presidents within two weeks. Six months later, the value of Argentina’s peso had fallen from US$1 to US$0.20.
During the Canadian federal election campaign, major party leaders have downplayed the possibility of any kind of economic crisis, never mind an Argentina-style meltdown. They’re not making a big deal out of the world’s diminishing oil reserves, either, the very problem that could trigger massive economic failures.
Two new nonfiction books suggest that these threats deserve far more attention than they’re getting from those party leaders. The first, The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe (Random House Canada, $34.95), should be required reading for all politicians. The second, And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out): Wall Street, the IMF, and the Bankrupting of Argentina (Public Affairs, $38.50), demonstrates what happens when a country can’t pay its debts, which could happen to Canada if the first book’s forecasts come true.
(5 Jan 2006)
Oil Analysts, Wrong Since 2001, End Forecasts of Price Drop
Bloomberg
Wall Street oil analysts have given up calling for lower prices after missing the rallies of the past four years.
New York oil futures will average $60 a barrel in the first quarter of 2006, about $2 more than today, according to the median forecast of 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Prices will average $58 in all of 2006, the survey shows.
“Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption,” said Kevin Norrish, a director of commodities research for Barclays Capital in London. Norrish and colleague Paul Horsnell had the highest and most accurate forecast for prices last year. … Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst Arjun Murti in New York, who roiled oil markets in March by saying crude may reach $105 a barrel, said in a report on Dec. 12 that his forecast may be conservative if the “peak oil” theory is right. He forecasts oil of $50 to $105 a barrel until 2009.
(28 Dec 2005)
Thanks to Dundee for finding this one. -AF
Audio: Ken Deffeyes’ Thanksgiving day speech
LA Sound Posse, Radio4All.net The California Institute of Technology in Pasadena invited Ken Deffeyes to talk about his theory of Peak Oil one week after Thanksgiving 2005. He was recorded by the L.A. Sound Posse.
(5 Jan 2006)
MP3 audio downloads available.
Bush’s former energy advisor expects oil to hit 250 dlrs pb
IRNA
The former energy advisor of US President George W Bush, Matthew Simmons, predicts oil prices could reach as much as 250 US dollars per barrel over the coming years.
“We have to expect an oil price between 200 and 250 dollars per barrel,” Simmons was quoted as saying on Tuesday in the January issue of the German-based Capital economic magazine.
He cited an imminent shortage of oil supply and a growing global demand, especially in China and India, for the sharp rise in oil prices.
Simmons who heads the American energy investment firm Simmons & Co, pointed also to a worldwide decline in conventional oil discoveries in new fields.
He anticipated global oil output could drop from the current 75 million to 65 million barrels per day by 2012.
(3 Jan 2006)
ABIOTIC OIL vs. PEAK OIL: THE DEBATE IS ON
From The Wilderness press release
The much anticipated debate between Michael C. Ruppert and Jerome Corsi, Ph.D. will take place live on George Noory’s Coast to Coast AM, January 12th from 11 PM to 2 AM Pacific Standard time.
Ruppert is the publisher and editor of the newsletter From The Wilderness, www.fromthewilderness.com, and author of the landmark Crossing The Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. Corsi is a frequent contributor to WorldNetDaily, and is also the co-author of both Unfit for Command and Black Gold Stranglehold. The two will debate this critical issue on one of America’s favorite late night radio talk shows next Thursday evening.
The debate will last three out of the four hours of Noory’s late night Coast to Coast broadcast and will include a period of time for on-air listener questions. A complete list of affiliates where the debate can be heard is on Mr. Noory’s website at www.coasttocoastam.com.
For more information please contact Ken Levine at [email protected].
(6 Jan 2006)
