Peak Oil
Continuing coverage of Hurricane Katrina
The Oil Drum
Multiple postings on the hurricane and its effects.
(29 August 2005)
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When did the era of cheap oil end?
Roland Watson, New Era Investory
Advocates of Peak Oil rightly point out that Hubbert’s global peak is not the end of oil, but the end of cheap oil. When supplies begin to tighten geologically, prices must rise if demand does not reduce in a proportionate manner. When they rise above a certain point, it is no longer deemed cheap oil.
The problem that struck me was what exactly is “cheap oil” and when will or did it end?
…A look at the West Texas Intermediate price chart shows that the era of cheap oil ended on Wednesday, 30th January 2002. The day before that, President George Bush gave his State of the Union address. He began thus:
“As we gather tonight, our nation is at war, our economy is in recession, and the civilized world faces unprecedented dangers. Yet the state of our Union has never been stronger.”
The era of cheap oil prophetically ended the next day. Some years from now, the meaning of the phrase “unprecedented dangers” will be rewritten and recession will be a most desirable state to be in.
The citizens of the Union currently rally against the forces of international terrorism where names and faces can be held in contempt, but the unprecedented danger of ever decreasing barrels of oil has no face and only one name – “Peak Oil” and it is destined to strike not only every skyscraper but every home and individual who flicks a switch or turns a car ignition key.
(29 August 2005)
Oil, Blood and the Future
Paul J. Nyden, Charleston Gazette via Common Dreams
Oil may be achieving a new impact on daily news, people’s pocketbooks and world history — perhaps even the end of history and the world.
Cover stories in magazines this month include: “After Oil: Powering the Future” in National Geographic; “Crossroads for Planet Earth,” a special issue of Scientific American; and “The Beginning of the End of Oil?” in The New York Times Sunday Magazine.
The articles warn about dire consequences for humanity and life on earth if current energy policies are not changed in the immediate future.
…Solutions must be drastic and they must come soon. It just might already be too late to save our Earth. And oil, the driving force behind the coming disaster, will run out.
“It may not happen for 10, 15 or 20 years,” Klare writes. “But it will happen.”
Goodstein warns, “Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we can find a way to live without fossil fuels.”
Most of us alive today will live to see the consequences. All of our young children will.
(29 August 2005)
Over a barrel
Geov Parrish, WorkingForChange
If ever there were a time to declare war on America’s dependence on oil, now would be it.
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…Blame George Bush, but even more than Bush, blame China. China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, are poised to surpass the United States in terms of total oil consumption, with few environmental controls or global warming limits. When increased demand meets fixed or declining supply, prices rise. China at present has the world’s most vibrant and successful economy, and a rapidly expanding middle class that wants to enjoy all the perks that the wealthy West has enjoyed for years.
At the same time, George Bush’s disastrous invasion of Iraq has effectively taken production of Iraq’s massive oil reserves off the world market much of the time, as sabotage from the insurgency has effectively crippled Iraq’s oil exports. Globally, oil reserves are declining, with some experts claiming that the world’s capacity to produce oil has already peaked. The easiest oil has already been extracted; what’s left is in places like the Arctic or the landlocked Caspian. In the 21st century, oil will only get scarcer.
(29 August 2005)
