Jim Rogers, co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, has predicted oil will be at $150 within the next 10 years.
Speaking at the Hedge Funds World Global Opportunities 2005 conference, Rogers was negative on chances of the oil price being forced down in the near future.
“The question on oil will be how high the price goes and stays, because there may be vast amounts of oil in the world but no one has discovered a great oilfield in over 35 years.
“The Alaskan and Mexican fields are in decline, and while the North Sea has made the UK one of the great oil exporters in the last 20 years, within the decade the UK will be a net importer.
“In the 1960s we discovered North America, Mexico and the North Sea, and the world knew the oil would come to market. But the price of oil went up 10 times, because it could not get to market quickly enough.
“If you think the price of oil is going to $32 and staying there, let me know where the oil is coming from. I expect the price will be $100–$150 within the decade, and the bull run in commodities will come to an end when it reaches $110.”
Adding to this woe is Rogers’ outlook for Saudi Arabia – one of the world’s largest oil producers: “The country is basically run by three people who are over 80 years of age, and about 70% of the Saudi people are under 21. There is huge tension and unrest under the surface, and there are huge numbers of foreigners such as Indians, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis doing all the work and running the businesses. So either there will be chaos in Saudi Arabia – and that’s likely – which means the price of oil will stay high – or the royal family will pay everyone off.”
Rogers went on to say that a serious decline in the source of revenue coupled with a lot of young people was bound to cause instability in the country going forward. “People have said all commodity bull runs end with a war. If that’s true, by the end of the next decade there will be a lot more turmoil in the world,” he said. “When you have a country on the rise it always clashes with the dominant power in the world. At the moment that power is the US and the country on the rise is China.”
In short, alternative sources of energy “cannot happen fast enough,” he said.
