(Op-Ed) London — Over recent months Tehran has learned to live with bombing threats (even ‘surgical bombing’ threats) by a couple of quite remote powers. One is very remote, and the other is in reach of Iran’s missiles. Apparently these two remote powers, who have nuclear weapons, dont want Tehran to share the same pride, pleasures and pitfalls.
Both are oil importers, like China, a UN Security Council member, with declared and large nuclear weapons strike capacities. China now is firming up a 10-year, 250 Bn US dollar global value contract for LNG shipments from Iran to China, with 87 LNG tankers to be ordered by way of the contract. One of the very few ways that China’s soaring oil import demand can or might be slowed, apart from miraculous ‘quick fixes’ like the Hydrogen Economy which only exists on paper, is for China to quickly increase its LNG imports.
Rather unlikely, China would stand idly by and see Iran bombed ‘for the good of humanity’ and other strange reasons advanced from the deep and dark recesses of Washington think tanks. Sometimes, in fact, this bombing is actually called ‘therapeutic’ by its perpetrators. One example was Somalia, where daily aerial gunship machine gunning of mostly unarmed crowds was labeled ‘peacekeeping’, back before the Iraq war.
Even further back, Israeli fighter bombers took out Saddam’s toy-size nuclear reactor supplied by France, with 1 death, of a French technician. Today, Iran has much more serious and real world nuclear technology, supplied by Russia, as well as short- and mid-range ballistic missile capability, supplied by North Korea. Iran also has declining oil resources together with a now structural import need for refined products. Taking Iran out of the world oil supply equation, at this time, would certainly be yet more stupid than taking Iraq out.
Iran’s justification of wishing to acquire and develop atomic weapons capable technology is just as nuclear phallocratic, or ‘rational’ as the justifications given by say USA, France, China, Russia, Pakistan, UK, and India.
While Israel of course doesnt actually say it has nuclear weapons – it leaves that to the Triple Traitor Mordechai Vanuunu – Iran leaves it to CNN and other ‘highly reliable’ sources, such as reworked IAEA reports and studies.
The bottom line to this story is that Iran believes it is not likely that ‘surgical bombing’ will go ahead. France, Germany and UK, the Peace Triumvirate, offically hope it is not going ahead. Conversely, rejuvenated Bush2 cold war warriors think Iran bombing would be a fabulous way to bring 100 dollar-per-barrel oil, perhaps because they have seen how 50-dollar oil helps the economy grow. The sounding of TV trumpets and US right wing newsleader gongs has crept back up the agenda. Totally unlike Iraq, however, there is a big fly in the ointment, called big gas, big bucks and China.
Jurists might ponder this one: A really full-guarantee LNG contract for China could need a clause requiring China to locate antiaircraft missile systems in Iran for occasional target practice if the Therapy Bombers, intoxicated by their own ravings, move their fighter planes anywhere near Iranian airspace.
