RISING GASOLINE prices and tight global supplies have given fresh impetus to claims that the world is fast approaching the moment of "peak" oil production, beyond which we can expect declining energy output and economic decline. While there is no doubt that global oil output will attain peak levels, the current rise in prices reflects a more worrisome phenomenon: America’s growing dependence on imported petroleum from unstable and unfriendly countries, entailing an increased risk of supply disruptions and military involvement abroad.
Bitter ethnic conflict in Nigeria, for example, has slowed exports from that country, while political warfare in Venezuela and insurgent attacks in Colombia have depressed those countries’ output. Despite heroic efforts by the United States, moreover, production in Iraq continues to suffer due to almost daily sabotage of pipelines, refineries, and loading facilities. These developments — and not a lack of petroleum in the ground — are largely responsible for the current surge in prices. The growing focus on peak oil arises from the fact that we have used up much of the world’s easy-to-find petroleum (like that in Texas and Oklahoma) and are approaching a time when most of our oil will come from relatively inaccessible supplies — deep underground, far offshore, or in remote and inhospitable areas. As we move in this direction, the cost of producing oil will rise and the output of any given field will diminish. But many such reserves do exist, and with the help of advanced technologies we can tap into these supplies and postpone the day of peak oil output.
Still, there will be the problem of growing US reliance on unstable and unreliable suppliers. At one time, most of the world’s oil was produced in the United States, Europe, and other relatively stable areas; today, most of these fields are in decline and we obtain a growing share of our energy from the ever-turbulent Middle East and from other suppliers in the developing world.
This tectonic shift in the global production of oil is clearly evident in data provided by the US Department of Energy. In 1950, approximately two-thirds of the world’s annual output was supplied by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and the former Soviet Union; by 2000, these countries’ share had dropped to two-fifths, and by 2025 it will fall to one-third. By contrast, the Middle East produced only 18 percent of world oil in 1950 but is expected to claim 39 percent in 2025; Africa’s share will rise from practically zero to 13 percent over this period. And most of the rest of the world’s future oil will come from nations in Latin America and Central Asia.
Consider the situation in Nigeria. For decades, powerful elites in the capital of Abuja have monopolized the allocation of petroleum revenues, providing relatively little to the ethnic minorities of the Niger Delta region, where most of the oil is buried. These groups — including the Ijaw and the Ogoni — have grown increasingly dissatisfied with the prevailing system and so have launched armed attacks on local oil facilities to make their point. The result, of course, is a sharp drop in exports. Similar disputes over the allocation of oil revenues are at the heart of the continuing conflict and disorder in Iraq, Indonesia, Sudan, Colombia, and Venezuela. Some of these disputes may ease in the months ahead, producing a drop in prices at the pump, but fresh conflicts are sure to arise in other countries, triggering another round of price increases.
The prudent response to this perilous situation would be to reduce our consumption of petroleum and to accelerate the search for practical alternatives, such as wind, solar, and hydrogen power. These endeavors would not bring instant relief but, over time, could help immunize our economy to the constant turmoil in oil-producing areas. Unfortunately, our leaders have chosen a different solution: to militarize our foreign oil dependency and rely on the presence of our armed forces to guarantee future supplies.
American soldiers are already protecting oil facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Colombia, and the Republic of Georgia or are training and advising the local forces assigned to this duty. American warships also patrol the tanker lanes in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, South China Sea, and the waters off Nigeria. Mercifully, the loss of life in these operations has so far been relatively small, but is sure to rise as the violence intensifies and we become more dependent on energy derived from war-torn areas.
The American people now face a critical choice: We can continue to increase our dependence on imported oil and risk a higher price in both treasure and blood to obtain it, or we can move to reduce our reliance on petroleum altogether. We should demand that our leaders invest in new energy sources rather than risk the lives of our young men and women in uniform.
Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and author of "Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Petroleum Dependency."
