We Need the Oil, Right? So What’s the Problem?
Such openness is rare; it set me back on my heels. The question came last Monday as I finished a lecture in Pewaukee, Wisconsin–the first of a handful of talks I gave for “Great Decisions 2005.”
Such openness is rare; it set me back on my heels. The question came last Monday as I finished a lecture in Pewaukee, Wisconsin–the first of a handful of talks I gave for “Great Decisions 2005.”
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signalled a significant tightening of oil markets towards the end of this year, warning on Wednesday it would have to pump close to its maximum capacity next winter to meet rising demand from China against the backdrop of slowing Russian production.
The world – and of course the US – now faces an epochal predicament: the global oil production peak and the arc of depletion that follows. We are unprepared for this crisis of industrial civilization. We are sleepwalking into the future.
A new organization is being founded this month in cities across the Midwest – Oil Addicts Anonymous – modeled after the multitude of successful 12 step programs such as Alcoholics Anonymous.
In the past week, oil prices have regained about US$3 a barrel after hitting a low of $45. Apart from the perennial US weather factor, positive sentiment was reinforced by IEA (International Energy Agency) data revising previous forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2005 by 80,000 barrels per day.
Transneft president says, “Beyond 2005 we will probably reach the ceiling in [Russian oil] output. The period of easy oil extraction is over and to boost output further we need serious capital investment and more time.”
OPEC, producer of more than a third of the world’s oil, and the European Union plan to hold twice- yearly meetings to discuss how to maintain a stable oil price acceptable to producing and consuming countries.
Tony Blair is preparing to commit the country to the biggest nuclear power programme since the 1960s if he wins the forthcoming general election.
But many Caspian estimates proved to be unrealistic, at least in the short term. Experts now say the Caspian should in coming years pump some 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, on par with Iran.
The Australian federal government is pushing for Australia to be a major supplier of LNG to Mexico and the west coast of the US.
…as we get hungry we will be motivated as never before to protect soil fertility and water reserves, and learn to feed ourselves without using fossil-fuel-based fertilizers and pesticides. Organic and sustainable farming will no longer be trendy. We will feed ourselves according to our ability to replicate the soil food web’s systems of nutrient and carbon cycling and nature’s biodiversity, and to learn from long-surviving species.
Although the United States has long consumed the lion’s share of the world’s resources, this situation is changing fast as the Chinese economy surges ahead, overtaking the United States in the consumption of one resource after another.