President Donald Trump has suspended his threatened bombing of Iran for two weeks, subject to the safe repassage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. One can only feel a sense of relief that last night’s worst horrors of utter destruction did not materialise, but wonder where matters will go from here.
The importance of this channel cannot be underestimated, since it is the conduit for 20% each of the world’s traded oil and gas. It is also the gateway for one third of the world’s agricultural fertilizers, 30% of its helium (used to cool the magnets of MRI scanners and in data centres and for electronics manufacturing) and 50% of global sulphur, which is converted to sulphuric acid, essential for the extraction of copper, cobalt and phosphate rock – the latter, again, for fertilizers.
Aluminium, petrochemicals, plastics and pharmaceuticals also pass through the strait, and for Gulf countries, it is a critical portal for imported food, upon which there is a high dependency.
The name derives from Hormoz, which is a Middle Persian expression of Ahura Mazda – the Zoroastrian deity of wisdom, light, and cosmic order. However, in this terrestrial and mortal realm, order is profoundly under threat of fracture.
Trump has given credit for this abeyance of military onslaught to Pakistan, who have steadfastly offered their hand to broker peace in the region. Pakistan is also a key member of a new four-nation alliance, along with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, and a nuclear power.
Even if the strait were to remain open, a full flow of energy and materials will take considerable time to recover, along with the knock-on effects from damage to refineries and pipelines. A further issue is the massive insurance costs for ships passing through the region. Should a lengthy interruption ensue, the global consequences are likely to be catastrophic. It is noteworthy that some analysts do not predict a “mass exodus” of ships through the strait, which will still require permission from the Iranians to make the transit.
Against this backdrop, and a chilling prospect that “A whole civilization will die”, I was profoundly moved by the Easter messages from the Pope and the Archbishop of Canterbury, in each case their first, both calling for peace in the Middle East. In his address to thousands in St. Peter’s Square in Rome, Pope Leo told them:
“Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace,” while, in Canterbury Cathedral, Dame Sarah Mullally pressed for an “end [to] violence and destruction”.
At the time of the National Emergency Briefing, it is clear that the world must focus on cooperation and harmony if we are to deal with the climate and nature crisis, rather than fighting to the bitter end for what is left of Earth’s resources.
