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ASPO-USA Conference Report: Thursday Afternoon Notes
World Of Wallstreet
Here’s my summary of what I heard this afternoon:
Chris Martenson, author “Crash Course” – gave an abbreviated version of his standard pitch. His key insight: A money system that requires perpetual growth is unsustainable upon meeting Peak Oil which prevents growth is quite an accomplishment and the main difference between this year’s conference and last year’s is basically that view is now quite accepted. I wish he had brought some new insights this year.
Kjell Aleklett, Swedish Academic – I came in on the of this and he seemed to be doing an excellent regional review of oil and coal production and consumption. He has a book coming out with tonnes of data. I don’t read books much, but will probably make an exception for this.
Richard Heinburg – big picture guy who’s life work was inspired by the 1972 Limits to Growth. Expects more of the same: persistent unemployment, declining household net worth and income, financial instability. Didn’t do much for me.
Jeffrey Brown – great, data filled presentation indicating that between now and 2020 the amount of oil available for OECD import will fall by something like 30%- 60% depending on whether world oil production stays constant or starts falling. The US imports 60% of its oil. That means the US will have to get along with 18% less oil with very rosy assumptions: assuming US production remains constant and world production stays constant. That’s scary enough but it could be more like 40 to 60% less oil under more realistic assumptions. That’s the end of life as normal.
Dr. Minqi Li, academic U of Utah – lots of data extrapolating moderated Chinese growth. If it continues there will be huge problems (available oil and global climate change). I would like to pay more attention to Dr. Li.
My raw detailed notes follow.
(4 November 2011)
The six natural resources most drained by our 7 billion people
Camila Ruz, Guardian
For how long can we realistically expect to have oil? And which dwindling element is essential to plant growth?
With 7 billion people on the planet – theoretically from today – there will be an inevitable increase in the demand on the world’s natural resources. Here are six already under severe pressure from current rates of consumption:
1. Water …
2. Oil …
3. Natural Gas …
4. Phosphorus …
5. Coal …
6. Rare earth elements …
(31 October 2011)
Peak Oil – Herausforderung für Sachsen: Bündnis90/Die Grünen präsentieren Studie des Postfossil-Instituts im Landtag
Solar Server
Am 25.10.2011 hat die Fraktion Bündnis90/Die Grünen im Sächsischen Landtag die 80-seitige Studie “PEAK OIL – Herausforderung für Sachsen” des Hamburger Postfossil Instituts e.V. (PFI) vorgestellt.
Sie untersucht unter anderem, wie anpassungsfähig die sächsische Wirtschaft auf plötzliche rasante Preisanstiege für Mineralöl gerüstet ist und auf welchen Strukturbruch sich Deutschland einstellen müsse.
Die Studie sei ein wichtiger Schritt, die Auswirkungen künftiger dramatischer Preisentwicklungen bei den fossilen Rohstoffen, insbesondere beim Erdöl, politisch ins Auge zu fassen, sie vorherzusehen und möglichst schon jetzt kalkulierbar zu machen, berichtet das PFI in einer Pressemitteilung.
… Die Studie ist erhältlich auf der Website der Grünen Landtagsfraktion Sachsen. (Link: http://www.gruene-fraktion-sachsen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Publikatione…)
(30 October 2011)
