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Rethinking the Future (Holmgren review)
Mike Lynn, In These Times
Fossil fuels can’t last forever. A new book plans for a world without them.
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The human mind almost seems hard-wired to expect the future to resemble the past. While this may be an artifact of our evolutionary history that served our ancestors well, in the complex and rapidly changing world we have created, it could prove a fatal blind spot.
David Holmgren has been considering the possibility of our civilization falling victim to our own growth for the better part of four decades. With fellow Australian Bill Mollison, he originated the permaculture movement in the 1970s, aimed at bringing the design of human societies in line with natural systems. In his new book, Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (Chelsea Green Publishing, March), he suggests that the fast converging crises of peak oil and climate change may lead to a future far different from our past—a future of less energy, less complexity and more locally focused lives.
It would be unfair to classify Holmgren as a doomsayer. He surveys current energy and climate science and uses quantitative methods to outline possible scenarios of the future. While totally dismissing none (including total societal collapse and continued growth through technological breakthroughs), he sees our most probable future as one characterized by what he terms “energy descent.”
… If energy descent is our future, how will societies adapt? Holmgren offers four scenarios, which vary depending on the rapidity of energy descent and the severity of climate disruptions.
He writes that the best-case scenario of slow energy descent and mild climate change would allow adaptation through green technology, permaculture design and more localized economies. The apocalyptic worst-case scenario is defined by rapid energy descent and severe climate change. In between are combinations of the two, in which societies adapt to energy decreases and climate changes separately if one occurs more rapidly than the other. (Holmgren also suggests an alternative, nested model in which all four scenarios emerge simultaneously at the national, city/state, community and family levels.)
… In the end, the importance of this book is not so much in its descriptions of or prescriptions for energy descent. Rather, its importance lies in the insistence that we set aside our conviction that the future will look like the past. The emerging evidence of climate and energy science suggests that it won’t.
(17 May 2009)
‘Rebound effects’ of energy efficiency could halve carbon savings, says study
Alok Jha, Guardian
Research urges governments and climate policymakers to look beyond simple energy solutions and consider the indirect and economy-wide effects when forming legislation
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Using energy more efficiently might not be as effective at tackling climate change as people think, according to a new study. A team of economists has shown that so-called “rebound effects”, where efficiency improvements are offset by behaviour changes, such as increasing demands for cheaper energy, could potentially slash future carbon and energy savings by half.
The rebound effect was first proposed in the 19th century but, until now, there has been very little research on how significant it might be. In the latest study, Terry Barker, of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, showed that if the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recommendations for efficiency measures are followed in full in the next few decades, the total rebound effect – the proportion of potential energy savings offset by changes in consumer and industry behaviour – could be 31% by 2020 and about 52% around the world by 2030.
… Rebound effects can cut right through society and the three types reflect how they could inadvertently increase energy use. The first, direct effects, include people who drive more regularly because their fuel-efficient cars are cheaper to run. More efficient industry, on the other hand, can lead to indirect effects: cheaper steel might increase the amount of steel produced and, therefore, the number of construction projects in which it can be used. Across society, cheaper electricity bills overall mean consumers have more money to spend on other activities, such as holidays or entertainment, again potentially raising their overall carbon footprint.
(14 May 2009)
It’s good to see a greater degree of sophistication in the energy discussion. The Rebound Effect (aka Jevons Paradox) deserves much more attention than it’s hitherto received.
However, let’s remember that the Rebound Effect is complicated and has been little studied. The empiric studies usually have results in the range of 20-40%, so it does NOT mean that energy efficiency is “useless.” This is not the time for grand generalizations. It’s the time for looking at the phenomenon more carefully. -BA
(Peak Oil) Ignorance is Strength ?
Nate Hagens, The Oil Drum: Campfire
Successful adaptation to issues surrounding resource depletion will require (at least) 1)the ability to think about the future, 2)the recognition that if nothing is done the future will be worse off than the present and 3)the ability to act now, while time and resources are still available to act. Many reading this site qualify for at least 2 of the above. My own sharing of discoveries, analysis and opinions about Peak Oil with friends, family and acquaintances over the past 5 years, has met with a wide disparity of reactions. There is a significant group of people that fall into the category of ‘thanks, but I don’t want to know anymore about this topic’. They don’t often use those exact words, but might reply to an email about Cantarell decline rates with a picture of their son at baseball practice, e.g.
Tonight’s Campfire relates to the spigot of information surrounding Peak Oil and Limits to Growth more broadly, etc. Are you happy you learned about the coming energy transition or do you long for the days of Peak Oil ignorance? If you could do a rewind would you want the Peak Oil information spigot fully open, a moderate flow, or a bare trickle?
(16 May 2009)
Energy Journal Roundup: May 2009
The Oil Drum
The Energy Journal Roundup is a monthly post reviewing the peer-reviewed literature published in various energy journals from around the world.
(16 May 2009)
