1. Production and Prices
Prices started the week around $45 a barrel; dropped to $40 on grim economic news and a 4 percent drop in the Dow to a 12-year low; and then rebounded to close to $45 on the premature hope that China would announce a major new stimulus package.
Mixed signals continue to emerge from the run-up to next week’s OPEC meeting. With outside observers reporting that OPEC appears on track to reduce its production in the vicinity of 4 million b/d by the end of March, the issue becomes the amount of contraction in world demand. The IMF is now saying that the global economic downturn will be considerably deeper than forecast even last month. US crude inventories fell unexpectedly in last week’s stocks report leading some to speculate that the OPEC production cuts may be having an effect.
There is some discussion that the Saudis are realistic enough to recognize that with the global economy in free fall, it will be very difficult to increase prices to the $60-$70 level and that OPEC should be content with $50 a barrel especially if the US dollar continues to fall. This policy is unlikely to satisfy other OPEC members who are in far more difficult straits than the Gulf Arab states. Iran’s oil minister is now favoring an undefined “mechanism to repair prices” rather than cutting production, while Venezuela says it will ask for another cut.
Another school of analysis says that recent Saudi price increases are a signal that there will be another big production cut. Given that oil prices have yet to increase significantly, most observers are predicting a fourth cut.
US natural gas prices closed out the week at a six-year low as the large increase in unemployment reported on Friday suggested further reductions in demand for gas.
On Friday, the IEA and OPEC will publish a revised monthly estimate of global oil demand for 2009. Most observers are expecting forecasted demand to drop by at least another 1 million b/d.
2. Venezuela
In the wake of the February 15th referendum that will allow him to remain in office indefinitely, President Chavez has begun a series of confrontations and nationalizations to cope with falling food supplies and oil production. The underlying cause is the drop in oil prices that the country relies on for 90 percent of its hard currency earnings. With heavy Venezuelan oil selling in the mid-$30s, the situation continues to get worse. Venezuela’s national oil company PdVSA owes its contractors about $8 billion and several companies are refusing to continue work until they are paid. The situation is compounded by the refusal of foreign contractors to pay local employees and domestic vendors.
Last week began with government soldiers occupying a number of Venezuelan rice mills in an effort to force the companies to increase the sales of rice at low state-mandated prices. The local subsidiary of US food giant Cargill was among the rice mills seized. Later in the week the government nationalized part of the holdings of an Irish company that was using its land to grow eucalyptus for cardboard.
PdVSA says it has started paying off $1 billion of the $8 billion it owes contractors, but most of this money is likely to go to small domestic vendors rather than large international oil service companies.
The government is attempting to negotiate a 40 percent cut in the cost of contracts to bring them in line with falling oil prices.
The Caracas has already seized one US-owned drilling rig for failure to keep working and is threatening to seize more. At week’s end, union officials reported that 24 oil rigs across the country have halted operations as their owners were not being paid. This tactic of seizing foreign drilling equipment can only work for a brief period for the equipment will soon need spare parts and maintenance support from outside the country.
Venezuelan oil fields have been exploited for over 100 years and require continuous drilling to keep up production levels. Chavez’s policy of giving priority to government social programs over expenditures needed to maintain oil production is certain to continue the lower oil production trend.
PdVSA is counting on increased production from the Orinoco heavy oil belt to offset declining conventional oil production. The company is planning 88 major new projects in the Orinoco region that will require some $125 billion in investment through 2012. Last week PdVSA postponed bidding by foreign companies on the Orinoco projects. Some analysts are skeptical that anything will come of the bidding, given the harsh terms and heavy taxes the government imposed last year.
3. China in recession
With circa $2 trillion in foreign reserves to spend, developments in China command instant world attention these days. Last week there was a flurry of activity in the world’s stock markets when it was incorrectly reported that Beijing was about to announce a major new stimulus package. Premier Wen Jiabao announced last week that China is still on track to grow its economy by 8 percent this year despite a catastrophic drop in exports and a major drought that threatens to wipe out much of the winter wheat crop. This goal is to be achieved through increased investment in agriculture and infrastructure projects.
Beijing’s major problem is unemployment in a country of 1.3 billion that is evenly split between urban and rural dwellers. Some estimates place the total unemployed as high as 25-35 million out of a total non-agricultural workforce of 500 million. Redirecting a workforce of this size from producing goods for export to working on domestic infrastructure in a short period of time seems like a nearly impossible task.
In the meantime, China is capitalizing on low world prices for oil and other commodities to build up its strategic stockpiles in anticipation of a global rebound.
With plenty of hard currency available, Chinese companies are increasing their holdings in foreign oil producing countries at a time when smaller Western companies are finding capital hard to secure..
For now Chinese oil imports seem to be holding steady as efforts to buildup a strategic reserve offsets declines in industrial production. Over the longer run Beijing’s success in maintaining its growth rate in the face of worsening global conditions will be one of the key factors in the oil market.
On a more ominous note, a recent poll of leading Chinese economists show that two-thirds of them now favor keeping state reserves in gold rather than US government securities.
4. Briefs (clips from recent Peak Oil News dailies are indicated by date and item #)
- Gas produced for sale in the US surged 7.2 percent in 2008 from the previous year, contributing to the current glut. That compares with a 3.1 percent rise in 2007. (3/7, #2)
- The number of oil and natural gas rigs operating around the world fell 7.4 percent in February to the lowest level since April 2006, according to Baker Hughes Inc. (3/7, #1)
- About 35 oil drilling projects in OPEC states have been put on hold due to poor economics, though that number is far less than the number of projects postponed in non-OPEC states due to the rough financial environment. (3/7, #4)
- Oil companies are slashing new investment and production far more sharply than analysts projected just a couple of months ago, a strategy that could lead to shortages and higher gas prices when consumption rebounds. (3/4, #5)
- Deutsche Bank estimates that, in a low-oil-price environment, as much as 1.5 million b/d of supply could be lost over the next 2 years within just the US, Alaska, Canada, UK, Norway, and Russia…Against the current economic backdrop, it comes as little surprise that 2008 saw fewer final investment decisions taken than in any year since 1989 despite the surge in the oil price, the bank’s analysts said. (3/3, #8)
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Petrobras will pump the first oil from the Tupi field on May 1, from a depth of 6,000 meters. In November 2007, Petrobras estimated Tupi had recoverable reserves of between 5 billion and 8 billion barrels of oil equivalent. (3/7, #11)
- Canadian Natural Resources said it needs natural gas prices to recover to the range of $6.50 to $7.50 per thousand cubic feet before it ramps up drilling in Alberta. The company said it has reduced its 2009 capital spending budget to 3.2 billion from $7-billion spent in 2008. (3/7, #16)
- ExxonMobil anticipates that global natural-gas demand will grow much faster than oil or coal but said gasoline demand will be flat for 2009. The company also said its Golden Pass LNG terminal is likely to start up in early 2010 instead of at the end of this year. (3/6, #5)
- In Russia, oil output and exports edged up in February while natural gas production of Russia’s gas export monopoly Gazprom collapsed due to lack of demand. (3/3, #17)
- Saudi Arabia’s history of oil production shows a peak of 9.6 million b/d in 2005. In 2008, crude production was 9.3 million b/d. In 2009 it is forecast to be 8.1 million b/d followed by an increase in 2010 to 8.5 million b/d. After 2010 a steady decline is forecast. (3/4, #18) [Editors’ note: hard to tell due to critical uncertainties; only time will tell.]
- Drilling activity in Saudi Arabia may drop by about 20 percent this year following a surge of activity in the past three years. (3/4, #9)
- Falling oil prices will force Iraq to cut back on military spending, leaving questions about whether it can handle tasks such as protecting oil platforms in the Gulf once the American pullout is complete, a top U.S. commander said. (3/6, #7)
- Output at Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude terminal has ramped up to around 200,000 barrels per day. Production was cut to around 90,000 bpd three weeks ago because of security concerns in the Niger Delta, the heart of Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. The Bonny terminal was producing more than 500,000 bpd before the attacks started in early 2006. (3/6, #8)
- Mexico’s Pemex is forecasting that its natural gas production in 2009 will fall for the first time since 2002. Output is expected to slip on lower associated gas production at the prolific Cantarell field, which is in an advanced stage of natural decline. (3/6, #10)
- Production from Mexico, the US’s number-three source of imports, is in serious trouble. Its oil output fell 9.2% in January to its lowest level since 1995, but exports from Mexico are falling much faster, at a 20% decline, according to Pemex. At the current rate, Mexico’s oil exports will cease altogether in seven years or less. (3/5, #18)
- For the first time since the country was founded in 1948, Israel may be able to take care of its own energy needs with a 5 Tcf natural gas field found off the coast of Haifa. Gas may flow from Noble’s Tamar find within three years, reducing the need for oil and coal imports from as far away as Mexico, Norway and Russia. Israel imports 85 percent of its energy. (3/5, #8)
- US gasoline demand is stronger than it was at its weakest levels last autumn, but probably not as strong as suggested in data showing a 2.2% year-on-year rise in last four weeks, analysts at the Energy Information Administration said. (3/6, #14)
- Oil production from BP’s Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf of Mexico is now 260,000 barrels a day. (3/4, #16)
- Oil and gas executives and experts fear that President Barack Obama’s push for renewables could shrink US output and drive drillers away from large reserves of relatively clean-burning natural gas. Obama’s budget proposal would remove tax breaks for oil and gas production and institute new fees in the Gulf of Mexico. (3/4, #15)
- The domestic oil and gas industry found plenty to dislike when the Obama administration announced its proposed federal budget. The segment of the industry which would be hurt hardest is its marginal, or “stripper,” oil producers. Their 420,000 low-volume wells each produce fewer than 15 b/d, yet they collectively produce 20 percent of total US oil and gas production, or 1.2 million b/d — roughly equal to daily US imports from Saudi Arabia. (3/7, #14)
- The US should raise the ratio of ethanol in gasoline to 15 percent from 10 percent according to Growth Energy, an ethanol trade group. Such a boost would create 136,101 jobs and add $24.4 billion to the economy by building new plants and hiring workers to operate them. There are 193 ethanol distilleries in the U.S., with capacity to produce 12.4 billion gallons of ethanol annually, or 800,000 barrels/day. (3/7, #15)
- The problem of scale plagues renewable energy systems. Solar and wind sources are providing the equivalent of 76,000 barrels of oil per day, or 0.16% of America’s total primary energy use of about 47.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. (3/6, #15)
- FutureGen, the experimental “clean-coal” project in Illinois that was cancelled by the Bush Administration, is on the verge of resurrection. Energy Secretary Chu said he would support the plant with “some modifications.” (3/6, #16)
- The 250-year number for US coal reserves seems never to change, kind of like those Saudi oil reserve estimates that stay the same year after year. Despite decades of coal mining, a lot of people still want to believe the US has a bottomless pit of coal resources. Recent analysis indicates that the US almost certainly does not have a 250-year supply of coal and will be fortunate if its coal supplies can stretch for another century. (3/4, #19)
- A report from Carnegie Mellon University concludes that plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt “are not cost effective in any scenario.” GM designed the Volt to go 40 miles on a single charge. A more cost-effective choice, according to the report, is a car that goes less than 20 miles on a charge. (3/4, #21)
- US Senator Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, introduced legislation that would allow the use of advanced directional drilling to tap the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The bill would allow access to the coastal plain’s oil and natural gas resources through the use of underground directional drilling, up to 8 miles long, from state-owned lands to the west of the refuge and state waters to the north. (3/2, #13)
Quote of the Week
- “The IEA’s comments are confusing and misleading. Whilst asking for prices to remain at $40 (a barrel), it also wants investments to be made that are not economically viable at these prices.”
— OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri
