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Irish energy minister says oil rationing “common sense” (Audio)
David Strahan, website
Ireland’s Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources has claimed that some form of energy rationing system would be a “common sense approach” to the twin challenges of peak oil and transport carbon emissions. Speaking on the sidelines of a conference held by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Cork, Eamon Ryan argued that it would be politically difficult to raise carbon taxes high enough to cut booming oil demand in Ireland, and confirmed that his government is investigating the possibility of introducing some kind of energy rationing scheme, perhaps starting with transport. Ryan, whose Green Party formed a coalition with Fianna Fail in July, is one of the first Western energy ministers to publicly acknowledge peak oil. In a lengthy interview with Lastoilshock.com, Ryan went on to discuss Ireland’s particular energy vulnerability, and plans to transform the country’s transport system.
Listen to the interview with Eamon Ryan
(18 September 2007)
ASPO conference: Oil to reach $100 a barrel ‘next year’
Ian Power, Irish Examiner
OIL is set to reach $100 a barrel by the end of next year, with production set to peak as early as 2015, a conference on the subject was told yesterday.
Chief economist at CIBC World Markets Jeff Rubin made the comments at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas conference in Cork yesterday, where world renowned experts in oil supply and demand met to discuss the future of the commodity.
Mr Rubin predicts that the price of oil will rocket in the next 12 months as consumption increases and supply diminishes.
“Triple digit prices, around $100 a barrel by the end of next year, will further depress demand for oil and the higher prices go, the sooner we will wean ourselves off hydrocarbons, which is where we need to go,” said Mr Rubin.
The conference was also told by former US Energy Secretary Dr James R Schlesinger that the world would need to discover another four or five countries with oil levels similar to Saudi Arabia to sustain oil production.
The conference heard that the peak production rate for oil will be reached when the industry reaches 100 million barrels per day, and it will then spiral into decline.
(18 September 2007)
The ASPO Conference -First Morning
Heading Out, The Oil Drum
…As Dr. James Schlesinger, the first Secretary of Energy, said in his Opening Address, the battle is over, Peak Oil is now accepted as inevitable, and the debate only becomes as to when. We have “won” and need to learn to take Yes! as an answer.
He spoke mainly of three things – the arrival of the Peak and the recognition that is starting to grow, and to mean that we are no longer lone voices crying in the Wilderness. Trade and government publications are already acceding with back-door concessions that we are facing a moment of truth. He paid tribute to Colin Campbell’s dictum that “before you produce it, you have to develop it”, and reminded us of the gap in matching discoveries as the old fields die out.
Having been there, he told of the oil industry laughing when President Carter discussed renewable energy back in 1979. Back then “conservation was not the American way, production was the American way.” But now, to sustain production we need to find 4 or 5 fields the size of all those in Saudi Arabia. It is not going to happen, but before we celebrate, remember that there are political and technical realities. And, as the day wore on, the mercilessness of the numbers began to be apparent.
This was his second theme, that people do not want to admit they were wrong. That we who were right are being shown to be so, but must be magnanimous in our victory lest we worsen the situation. Remember that the presence of the Peak does not drive action, and that action can only come through the acts of politicians. Politicians work for a public that expects that becoming independent of oil will lower the fuel and power bills.
In the US there was a pledge made by President Nixon in 1973, that the country would be oil independent by 1980. By then oil imports were up 60%, and today they are three times the 1973 numbers. The first rule of a politician is to get elected, and the second rule is to get re-elected. (Cassandra’s and those asking for sacrifice rarely succeed at task 2). Putting this all together was the clear implication that, while we weren’t standing on the deck of an aircraft carrier, that the job was not over, but rather must now move to a different phase.
This, his third theme, will require patience as we decide what to do.
…Chris Skrebowski noted that this has been the longest period that world production has effectively sat on a plateau, across a range of possible producers. For the next 6.5 years the die is already close to being cast on production schedules and thus in his Megaprojects lists he can predict production out to 2014. He used 4% for depletion (the industry used to be able to hold 3%) Working these numbers, and allocating for internal consumption, he sees that we have two good years left, then by 2011 we will be post peak and OOPS.
(17 September 2007)
Australian journalist Paul Syvret on politics, peak oil and mitigation
Andi Hazelwood, Global Public Media
Paul Syvret, assistant editor and columnist for the Courier Mail newspaper in Australia, talks to GPM’s Andi Hazelwood about the forthcoming report on “Queensland’s Vulnerability to Rising Oil Prices.” Syvret also discusses his coverage of peak oil in the Courier Mail and other News Corp. publications and his own thoughts on peak oil and mitigation strategies.
The September 15, 2007 edition of the Courier Mail included Syvret’s 2,000 word feature on oil depletion and Andrew McNamara’s as yet unreleased oil vulnerability task force report – read the articles of the feature here:
Gov’t warns of ‘peak oil’ chaos
End of the Oil Age is near
Wartime mentality needed
(18 September 2007)
West’s ravenous oil appetite may lead to tough sacrifices
Gwyn Morgan, The Globe and Mail
… the Changing Fortunes Round Table. Hosted by Ron Southern, who built Atco Ltd. into one of Canada’s most successful enterprises, invitations to the Round Table are much sought after. The session revolves around one or more internationally known marquee speakers, followed by plenary discussion among delegates. One example of Mr. Southern’s global reach is the recent presence of the head of the national bank of China alongside a former U.S. Federal Reserve Bank chairman and Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge.
This year’s theme was energy supply, demand and security. The keynote speaker was Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Rex Tillerson, now in his second year as head of the world’s largest private-sector energy company. He was joined by Thierry Demarest, chairman of France’s Total SA and by Royal Dutch Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer.
One of the backdrops to the meeting was a landmark report by the U.S. National Petroleum Council entitled Hard Truths About Global Energy. The study projects global energy demand will grow by at least 50 per cent by 2030. Essentially all that growth will come from the developing world. Given that energy use is currently balanced between developed and developing countries, this means a doubling of energy use by developing countries in 23 years. Delegates from Europe, Latin America and China expressed no disagreement with the conclusions of the report.
For me, the report leads to two key conclusions:
International competition for energy will intensify, providing energy exporters with geopolitical and financial advantage over energy importers.
Reconciling growth of hydrocarbon demand with the need to restrain emissions will require major energy cost additions such as clean-coal technology and carbon sequestration in both developed and developing countries.
Gwyn Morgan is the retired founding CEO of EnCana Corp.
(17 September 2007)
Movie review: Energy Crossroads
Mick Winter, Dry Dipstick
In a society where most people take energy for granted and assume life will go on just as it is, this film is a cold shower of fact.
… Energy Crossroads looks deeply and objectively at our use of, and dependence on, energy. It traces the history of our society since the Industrial Revolution and makes very clear that without cheap energy—primarily petroleum over the last 100 years—our society, and the industrialized society worldwide, could never have existed.
…Energy Crossroads is refreshing because it doesn’t have the usual talking head suspects that appear in most Peak Oil films, events and books. Instead it includes appearances and commentary by a variety of knowledgeable and well-credentialed experts in the fields of climatology, environment, anthropology, energy and, yes, Peak Oil, thanks to the cooperation of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas — USA.
The target audience for this film doesn’t appear to be those already familiar with Peak Oil and the worldwide energy predicament. But if you are one of that more knowledgeable minority, this is the DVD to give to friends and family who haven’t yet caught on. Energy Crossroads probably won’t scare them, but it will soften them up and give them a clear snapshot of the energy present. Once you’ve decided they’re ready, you can hit them with your thoughts on what the future might hold, and what we must do to change.
Mick Winter (www.DryDipstick.com) is the author of Peak Oil Prep: Prepare for Peak Oil, Climate Change and Economic Collapse (www.peakoilprep.com)
(18 September 2007)
I notice that Mick gives the documentary a rating of four oilwells. -BA
