Letter to the editor appearing in “Army: The Soldier’s Newspaper” published by the Australian Department of Defense.
Oil is a peak concern
ABOUT two years ago I read a book entitled Beyond Oil: The view from Hubberts Peak.
It talks about oil depletion, or peak oil, which I have been following quite closely since then. Peak oil is the term used to describe the global peaking and then decline of oil production.
With global demand still increasing about 2 per cent a year, and the depletion rate expected to be about 2.5-3 per cent a year after the peak, this will see the price of fuel increase significantly and will likely result in an economic recession/depression that could last for decades. While it is uncertain when the peak will occur, based on a significant amount of research that I have completed, I believe it will occur between now and the end of the decade.
The Army is obviously reliant upon oil to fuel its growing fleet of trucks, tanks, helicopters, generators etc. I don’t have any figures to support this, but I imagine that our consumption of fuel is increasing as we bring on new capabilities.
While the Liquid Fuels Emergency Act will ensure the Army and ADF is a top priority for fuel, public opinion will no doubt demand that this fuel be used sparingly, in the event of a liquid fuels crisis. Is the Army aware of peak oil and has it started planning for it?
Maj Cameron Leckie
136 Sig Sqn
Gallipoli Barracks
Lt-Col Nick Floyd, A/DSIE-A, Future Land Warfare AHQ, responds:
WE recognise that the peaking and eventual decline of global oil production will have severe consequences for Army as well as the wider community.
We are engaging across Defence in this regard, and are factoring such aspects as fuel consumption in our considerations.
While peak oil individually constitutes a significant threat, Army recognises that a similar level of risk management will be required for other energy issues, such as a disruption to our electricity supply or natural gas reserves. As such we are addressing all of these issues under the broader theme of energy security. Within this context, it is important to recognise the existence of Australia’s energy dependency and vulnerability.
Dependency describes the reliance of a given socio-economic sector on a particular energy source(s) to sustain that sector.
The more energy sources a sector has, the less dependent it is on a particular source; whereas dependency will diminish as efficiencies or other reductions in consumption occur. In contrast, vulnerability of an economic sector’s energy source(s) relates to volatility, interdiction or slowing of supply – through market forces, diplomatic/military action by suppliers or third agencies, and sabotage as well as natural events.
Securing Australia’s energy encompasses the problem area of securing not only sources, but also lines of supply, from the point of origin to the final consumer. We must also consider energy not only as a consumable within sectors of the national economy (including Defence and Defence-related industry), but also energy as a commodity for export, as part of the national economy.
Both aspects of energy security are central in Australia’s national interests, and ultimately a vital consideration in national and military strategy.
Staff from Future Land Warfare (FLW) Branch of AHQ are actively engaged in energy security working groups, nationally and internationally, collaborating with a range of public and private sector stakeholders.
Ongoing collaboration with organisations such as the Kokoda Foundation and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has allowed us to expand our knowledge of energy security, and also to provide information and facilitate understanding regarding the range of energy security concerns facing the Army, Defence and the nation.
Most recently, FLW-A staff attended a presentation on peak oil by the co-author of the US Department of Energy-commissioned “Hirsch Report”.
FLW-A staff are collaborating with Strategic Policy Division to identify the implications of energy security issues for Defence.
This work will ensure Army is prepared to contribute to a whole of Government effort through advice, liaison, and preventive and, where required, decisive action.
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