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The Day China Runs Dry
Rui Bingyou, Economic Observer Online (China)
China’s massive but dwindling aquifers would be on track to run virtually dry if over-pumping continued, said Lester Brown, prominent US environmental policy advocate. At that point, its grain production would dive, severely exacerbating any food price increases that had already accumulated. Without rationally priced water, Brown predicted this scenario and a severe global food shortages as inevitable.
At once an ecologist, author, farmer, and activist, Brown was one of the earliest pioneers of the modern environmental movement. He had worked in various capacities for the US Department of Agriculture, ultimately becoming the director of the International Agriculture Development Service in 1966. In 1974 he founded World Watch, a non-profit devoted to global environmental issues, and in 2001, the Earth Policy Institute.
In 1995, Brown wrote a book entitled “Who Will Feed China?”, prompting worldwide attention and fierce debates in China on its role in affecting global food security.
As part of the EO focus series on China’s rising food prises, Brown discussed with us the greater ecological significance in agricultural production.The key, he said, would be water.
(29 February 2008)
Interview with Lester Brown.
Global fertilizer supply expected to outstrip demand
New FAO fertilizer outlook to 2011/12 published
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), United Nations
World fertilizer production is expected to outstrip demand over the next five years and will support higher levels of food and biofuel production, FAO said in a new report entitled “Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12” published today.
“High commodity prices experienced over recent years led to increased production and correspondingly to greater fertilizer use,” said Jan Poulisse, FAO fertilizer expert.
“This has led to tight markets and higher fertilizer prices. While it is expected that the demand for basic food crops, fruits and vegetables, for animal products and for biofuel crops is likely to remain strong, we expect fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption,” he added.
The FAO report estimates that world fertilizer supply (nitrogen, phosphate and potash nutrient) will increase by some 34 million tonnes representing an annual growth rate of 3 percent between 2007/08 and 2011/12, comfortably sufficient to cover demand growth of 1.9 percent annually.
Total production is expected to grow from 206.5 million tonnes in 2007/08 to 241 million tonnes in 2011/12. Fertilizer demand will increase from 197 million tonnes today to 216 million tonnes in 2011/12.
World nitrogen supply is forecast to rise by 23.1 million tonnes by 2011/12; world phosphate fertilizer supply will increase by 6.3 million tonnes and potash supply by 4.9 million tonnes.
Africa will remain a major phosphate exporter and increase nitrogen exports while importing all of its potash. Fertilizer consumption in Africa continues to be largely restricted to 10 countries, main consumers are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco.
It is expected that North America will continue to be a net importer of nitrogen and that the region will move into increasing phosphate deficit while remaining a primary supplier of potash.
Asia is expected to produce a rapidly increasing surplus of nitrogen, but will continue to import phosphate and potash.
(26 February 2008)
Press release from FAO. Even if there is a long-term trend, spikes and valleys are inevitable along the way.
Prediction: forecasts of fertilizer will start to undergo the same kind of scrutiny as have forecasts of oil production. The traditional assumptions may not be true anymore.
-BA
The World’s Growing Food-Price Crisis
Vivienne Walt, TIME
… Governments might succeed in quashing the protests, but lowering food prices could be far tougher and will likely take years, according to analysts who track global food consumption. The Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI, said last December that high prices are unlikely to fall soon, partly because world food stocks are being squeezed by soaring demand. The wild ride in agricultural markets has attracted intense speculation among investors, with billions of dollars being poured into commodities markets. On Monday, the price of wheat shot up about 25% on the Chicago Board of Trade, after officials in Khazakstan announced plans to restrict exports of their giant wheat crop in order to ensure the food supply to their own citizens. Russian officials have also said they are planning to restrict grain exports.
For the world’s poorest people, the price rises are already proving devastating, since the speed at which prices have risen has wrought havoc on government relief programs.
(27 February 2008)
