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Does the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review support America’s ability to ensure access to Saudi Arabian oil (PDF)
Emmett Schaill, US Army War College
Abstract : In February 2006 terrorists attacked the Abqaiq oil production facility in Saudi Arabia, the largest of its kind in the world. This attack is just the most recent in a string of attacks pointing out the growing insurgency in the Kingdom and its potential to drastically cut oil supplies to the West.
In 2005 Americans were reminded of their vulnerability to sudden price spikes in the price of fuel as prices rose dramatically. America’s economy recovered quickly but the evidence of vulnerability to oil supply interruptions remains. These events cause concern that oil supplies are vulnerable to insurgent attacks, and that Saudi Arabia’s large reservoir of oil may one day be under the control of extremists. Can the United States prevent this from occurring?
The 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) establishes a future force structure that brings into question America’s ability to ensure access to Saudi Arabian oil given the threats to the regime and in the region. Will the 2006 QDR forces be sufficient? This paper addresses this question identifying several areas of concern for further analysis and consideration.
(15 March 2006)
Iran threatens to use ‘oil weapon’ in nuclear standoff
Simon Tisdall, The Guardian
· Energy crisis would leave people ‘shivering in cold’
· UN deadline looms for Tehran to accept deal
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Iran warned Britain and the US yesterday that the international community could face a new oil crisis if the United Nations security council imposes sanctions on Tehran over its alleged attempt to acquire a nuclear weapons-making capability.
Speaking in Tehran, Ali Larijani, the country’s chief nuclear negotiator and head of the supreme national security council, said Iran would be reluctant to cut its oil exports. “We do not want to use the oil weapon. It is them who would impose it upon us.”
(7 Aug 2006)
Heating Up, Melting Down
James Howard Kunstler, Clusterf*ck Nation
If the stakes weren’t so high, and the situation weren’t so tragic, you’d have to laugh at the latest US-French attempt to craft a Middle East cease fire. They announced it as though they had jointly tackled the world’s most difficult Sudoku puzzle — and then about five minutes later Hezbollah and the Lebanese government both blew it off.
So much for the conceit that the Great Powers can control this thing.
… Jihad and peak oil are related, mutually-reinforcing problems. The world is in a lot of trouble and America is in a lot of trouble in our corner of the world. We talk about a lot of things, but the one thing we’ve absolutely avoided is any talk about making the necessary changes in our “non-negotiable” way of life. I think the remainder of 2006 will be the start of that national conversation.
(7 Aug 2006)
Fuel shortages in Lebanon a grave threat to people’s health
WHO Press Release
WHO warns that if fuel is not delivered this week, 60% of all hospitals in Lebanon, in addition to other health facilities will simply cease to function. WHO urges all parties to ensure the safe passage of fuel, as a matter of priority.
Due to the damage to infrastructure in the conflict-affected areas of Lebanon, hospitals and other health centres are relying on fuel to run generators. Power is essential to run operating theatres, life-saving equipment including incubators for newborns, refrigeration for vaccines and treatments including insulin. It is also essential for safe water provision and hygiene.
WHO has received reports that fuel supplies are running dangerously low. One hospital in Marjayoun, for example, reports that it will run out of fuel by Wednesday.
“Based on available information, if there is no fuel delivered in the next few days, more than half of the hospitals will not be able to operate by the end of this week and the situation will be much worse next week,” warned Dr Ala Alwan, Representative of the WHO Director-General for Health Action in Crises.
Lebanon has 12 000 hospital beds. A reasonable estimate is that, in order to function, each hospital bed needs 80 litres of fuel per week for electric power. Up until now, fuel deliveries have been severely hampered because of the ongoing military operations.
Without fuel, hospitals will be paralyzed. “Fuel is key in any basic infrastructure. The provision of fuel is a matter of life or death in a hospital setting. We urge all parties to ensure safe passage of fuel supplies to hospitals” said Dr Alwan.
Fuel shipments are ready to be sent to Lebanon as soon as the security situation allows. Fuel tanks are also ready to be sent from Beirut to other areas in Lebanon in convoys, provided security is ensured.
(7 Aug 2006)
Israel Lebanon War and BTC Pipeline
Sohbet Karbuz, BlogSpot
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline made its first shipment on 4 June 2006 and the line officially opened on 13 July 2006. Once the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline is finished (next year probably) the Russian gas from Black Sea port of Turkey (Samsun) will also join Ceyhan terminal.
Even though the line was supposed to channel Central Asian oil to Western markets and so much fuzz has been made about it, some developments have not appeared in western media much. Israel wants to re-export the Caspian oil and gas to the Asian market through the Red Sea port of Eilat.
Israel desires to link the BTC pipeline to the Israeli port of Askshelon through a 600 km underwater pipeline, and hence become an energy hub. From Ashkelon the oil could be pumped through already existing Askshelon-Eilat pipeline to port of Eilat at the Red Sea. And from there oil could be transported by tankers to Asian markets.
(23 July 2006)
Sohbet had some more to say on the EnergyResources e-group. -AF
Apocalypse near
Merav Yudilovitch interviews Noam Chomsky, Ynetnews
MY: What is the next chapter in this middle-eastern conflict as you see it?
NC: “I do not know of anyone foolhardy enough to predict. The US and Israel are stirring up popular forces that are very ominous, and which will only gain in power and become more extremist if the US and Israel persist in demolishing any hope of realization of Palestinian national rights, and destroying Lebanon. It should also be recognized that Washington’s primary concern, as in the past, is not Israel and Lebanon, but the vast energy resources of the Middle East, recognized 60 years ago to be a “stupendous source of strategic power” and “one of the greatest material prizes in world history.”
“We can expect with confidence that the US will continue to do what it can to control this unparalleled source of strategic power. That may not be easy. The remarkable incompetence of Bush planners has created a catastrophe in Iraq, for their own interests as well. They are even facing the possibility of the ultimate nightmare: a loose Shi’a alliance controlling the world’s major energy supplies, and independent of Washington – or even worse, establishing closer links with the China-based Asian Energy Security Grid and Shanghai Cooperation Council.
“The results could be truly apocalyptic. And even in tiny Lebanon, the leading Lebanese academic scholar of Hizbullah, and a harsh critic of the organization, describes the current conflict in “apocalyptic terms,” warning that possibly “All hell would be let loose” if the outcome of the US-Israel campaign leaves a situation in which “the Shiite community is seething with resentment at Israel, the United States and the government that it perceives as its betrayer.
(9 Aug 2006)
