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Japan: Green and growing
Renée Loth, Boston Globe
AN ISLAND nation with no domestic oil supply, Japan offers a glimpse into the world’s energy future, when oil reserves decline to unsustainable levels and alternatives are the only alternative. Unlike the vast and swaggering United States, Japan has confronted the reality of limited oil, especially in its energy conservation efforts. According to the International Energy Agency, Japan’s energy consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product is the lowest in the world.
Nearly 10 years after it hosted the Kyoto global warming summit, the country still claims a leadership role in reducing carbon emissions. The national expression of concern for the earth dovetails nicely with the traditional Japanese reverence for nature (Shintoism sees gods in every mountain, rock, and tree), but in fact Japan has no choice: The country imports almost all its oil and 60 percent of its food. It is self-sufficient only in rice.
However, Japan has managed to drive down energy use dramatically without sacrificing the comforts of an affluent society. The per capita consumption of energy in Japan is nearly half that in the United States, but the per capita incomes are roughly the same. So prosperity alone doesn’t explain why the United States burns so much more oil.
…Can the common consciousness of energy conservation in Japan — a country where commuters form a silent queue on subway platforms and no one jaywalks — ever be translated to the United States? Let’s hope so. With peak oil production already behind us and global warming an urgent reality, oil consumption is getting costlier all the time. Sooner or later, we are all Japan.
(22 March 2007)
Note the explicit reference to peak oil. Note also, that Renée Loth,, the author of the piece, is Editor of the Boston Globe editorial page and a senior vice-president of the New York Times Company. -BA
The View from the Peak
Jérôme Guillet, informaworld
…So what can be said about peak oil today? Richard Heinberg and Leonardo Maugeri provide some solid answers – and radically different conclusions.
The Party’s Over is one of that increasing number of ‘doom and gloom’ books warning us about a coming energy crunch. Heinberg, who was writing about issues of sustainability long before it was fashionable, provides a pedagogic overview of what the end of the age of oil could mean for industrial society. Published in 2003, it is one of the earliest of a recent flood of similar efforts. Heinberg provides a clear overview of how our civilisation has bloomed thanks to its ability to harness energy sources – in particular, in the last century, the energy contained in oil. He explains that we will soon run out of that vital resource, that there is no convenient alternative, and offers some suggestions on how to adapt to the fairly sombre future he sees for humanity once oil becomes scarce.
Conversely, The Age of Oil , by an oil industry insider (Maugeri works in the Strategy Department of ENI, the Italian oil major), focuses on the boom-and-bust cycles that have marked the last century of oil history, and contends that today’s tightening markets (and higher prices) can be explained by much the same temporary reasons that caused previous price spikes. He relates several episodes when various entities wrongly claimed that oil was about to run out, and comes out with the unambiguous message that today’s peak oil theorists will turn out just as wrong.
…The question of ‘when’ seems only to be debated within the ‘peak oil camp’, via semi-formal non-governmental organisations like the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and The Oil Drum. Such groups organise conferences and run lively websites where many opinions on timetables, economic and political consequences, and potential alternatives are expressed and the only points of agreement seem to be that there will be less oil available at some point in the foreseeable future and that we should plan for it. The other side, led by the main international energy agencies like the US Energy Information Agency and the International Energy Agency or by energy consultancies like Cambridge Energy Research Association, state more or less bluntly that the question is irrelevant, because the date is far enough in the future that it doesn’t matter. In their opinion, just as we found substitutes for wood and coal in the past, we’ll find substitutes for oil when we need it, or even before, as well as considerable quantities of presently undiscovered oil.
…The most damaging weakness, though, is Heinberg’s failure to focus on a consistent time frame for the likely future, or to sort out which forms of energy use are likely to be privileged over others. Most of the issues he raises are relevant in the perspective of across-the-board energy shortages, but some will appear before others, and some can easily be delayed or prioritised. Focusing on all the things we won’t be able to do when there is no energy at all is not very useful for understanding how decreasing energy availability could hit us in the medium term.
…Despite this shortcoming, The Party’s Over is an excellent introduction to the questions that come with the realisation that some of the resources we rely upon heavily are finite.
…One can only hope that the debate that briefly burst into the open last summer will be given the prominence it deserves. These two books are an excellent introduction to the arguments on both sides. The next few years will tell us if, as The Age of Oil argues, current circumstances are just a temporary blip in a long-term trend towards higher oil use, or as The Party’s Over asserts, the end of the phase of growth before a phase of stagnation or retrenchment
(March 2007)
George W. Bush, Meet M. King Hubbert
Jeffrey J. Brown, GraphOilogy
George W. Bush needs no introduction. Increasingly, neither does M. King Hubbert, a renowned geoscientist who used some mathematical modeling techniques to predict, in 1956, that US Lower 48 crude oil production would peak between 1966 and 1971. In 1956, he estimated that world crude oil production would peak no later than 2006.
In this article, I will attempt to put some of the crude oil production and consumption numbers during the first term of the Bush administration in the context of the Peak Oil debate.
I will make three key points: (1) During George Bush’s first term, the world used about 10% of all crude oil that has ever been consumed; (2) Based on our mathematical modeling, at our current rate of consumption, during the second Bush term the world will use about 10% of all remaining conventional crude oil reserves and (3) Net oil exports are falling much faster than overall world crude oil production is declining.
… First, a quick review of mathematical modeling techniques. …
Recommendations … I recommend “ELP” on an individual basis.
Economize–Try to live on half or less of your current income.
Localize–Try to reduce the distance between work and home to as close to zero as possible, in much smaller more energy efficient housing, and integrate yourself into the community.
Produce–Try to become, or work for, a provider of essential goods and services.
When policy changes become possible, I would strongly recommend an Energy Consumption Tax, to be primarily used to fund Social Security and Medicare, offset by cutting or eliminating the highly regressive Payroll Tax.
Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is [email protected].
(26 March 2007)
Further Forensics on Saudi Oil Supply
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
I have been arguing recently that, since about the middle of 2004, Saudi Arabian oil production has been supply constrained, and that in particular the production declines since the middle of 2005 are not voluntary. See Saudi Arabian Oil Declines 8% in 2006 and A Nosedive Toward the Desert. Also see, for a contrasting view, Euan Mearn’s posts Saudi Arabia and that $1000 Bet, and Saudi Production Laid Bare. Behind the scenes, Euan and I have exchanged a lot of email trying to figure out the points of agreement between us, as well as the remaining areas of disagreement.
I see that Cambridge Energy Research Associates continues to have a radically different view of future (2015) oil supply:
Saudi Arabia was ranked No. 1. Its output was forecast by Cambridge to grow to 14.3 million barrels per day from 2005 output of 12.7 million bpd.
I suppose if one thinks they produced 12.7mbpd in 2005, then one is in fantasy land about the past, never mind the future.
I’d like to start out this analysis by creating a lettering system for regions of interest in the Saudi production curve. The hope is to give us a common terminology for what we are referring to.
(26 March 2007)
T. Boone Pickens to discuss peak oil concerns with Midland audience
Mella McEwen, Midland Reporter-Telegram
T. Boone Pickens made a name for himself in the late 1970s and early 1980s when he was labeled a corporate raider for efforts to take over companies like Gulf Oil Co., which ended up being absorbed by Chevron.
The Texas-based oil man, son of an Oklahoma oil man, protests he never considered himself a corporate raider. But since those days, he has switched his focus to what he says is a looming crude shortage, and will be bringing that message to Midland April 4. He will speak at Midland College’s Chaparral Center beginning at 7:30 p.m. The event is free and no tickets are required.
Pickens answered questions about his upcoming visit during a phone interview from the Dallas offices of his company, BP Capital Management.
Will your concerns about peak oil be the focus of your visit to Midland?
I’ll talk about world oil peaking, yes. I believe that to be the case, that 85 million barrels a day is the best the world can do. I think we’ll be tested in the fourth quarter of this year. Oil demand globally should be 86-87 million barrels a day. Now, that’s if the global economy holds up. If the global economy declines any, oil demand should ease. If demand continues to strengthen, prices will move higher and could reach $70 a barrel.
(25 March 2007)
