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Norway Falls to Fifth Place Among World Oil Exporters
Bunny Nooryani, Bloomberg
Norway dropped to fifth place among the world’s crude oil exporters last year as the nation’s North Sea production declined, the Norwegian energy ministry said.
The United Arab Emirates replaced Norway as the world’s third-largest exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia, Sissel Edvardsen, a spokeswoman for the ministry, said today in an interview. Iran currently holds fourth place, she said.
…Norway’s crude oil output fell 7.8 percent last year as companies such as Statoil ASA and Norsk Hydro ASA struggled to replace dwindling oil supplies at aging North Sea fields.
(8 Feb 2007)
Related story from Bloomberg.
Norway drop
WHT, Mobjectivist
I pasted the latest data from Norway onto the Oil Shock model (generated earlier last year) below.
The TOD linked story cites a drop of 7.8% from the previous year, which approximates the downward slope shown by the model.
(8 Feb 2007)
UPDATE: Just added this graphic from Mobjectivist, who is a quantitive-minded minded peak oil blogger and bicyclist. -BA
Mexico’s top oil field declining fast – Pemex
Catherine Bremer, Reuters
Mexican state-run oil monopoly Pemex confirmed a gloomier forecast on Wednesday for fast-declining oil output at its aging Cantarell field, but said from now on it could keep total crude production steady.
Chief Executive Jesus Reyes Heroles said the company’s official production estimate for Cantarell was for an average of 1.526 million barrels per day during 2007, down 15 percent from an average 1.788 million bpd last year.
The figure is in line with recent industry talk but bleaker than Pemex’s outlook six months ago when it forecast Cantarell’s output at 1.683 million bpd for 2007 and 1.430 million for 2008.
(7 Feb 2007)
Cantarell decline – is peak oil correct?
Kevin Drum, Washington Monthly
PEAK OIL….I haven’t posted much about peak oil lately, but here’s a story that caught my eye this morning. Mexico’s main oil field showed a very sharp drop in production last year:
…The issue here isn’t that Cantarell is declining. That began a couple of years ago and had been widely anticipated. What’s news is that, just as many peak oil theorists have been warning, when big fields start to decline they decline faster than anyone expects. So far, Cantarell appears to be evidence that they’re right.
By itself, this is nothing to get alarmed about (unless you’re a Mexican politician or a Pemex executive). However, if it turns out that the peak oil guys are broadly correct, and declining fields start turning into collapsing fields across the world, that would be something to get alarmed about. We don’t know yet if that will turn out to be the case, but it’s very definitely worth keeping an eye on.
(8 Feb 2007)
CIBC no longer predicting $100-a-barrel oil any time soon
Gary Norris, The Canadian Press
TORONTO — A “war on carbon” by governments has prompted a strategic retreat by CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin, who less than a year and a half ago was predicting oil would be near US$100 per barrel by now.
So far, the price has peaked at $78.40 last July and receded almost 25 per cent since then.
“We’re still going to get $100-a-barrel oil but I think it’s going to take longer, given what’s happened to demand,” Rubin said in an interview.
“And I guess for investors the key question will be, when we get to $100 oil what the netbacks are going to be to oil firms, because by the time we’re probably going to have a cap-and-trade system for CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions.” ..
(8 Feb 2007)
