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Off the rails
Editorial, Nature
Aviation’s role in climate change is causing a storm.
…The problem lies with two diverging industry trends. On the one hand, flying is more popular than ever before. British passenger numbers are predicted to double to 475 million per year by 2030, for example, and in China, according to the World Bank, passenger numbers grew by a whopping 28% from 2003 to 2004.
As a result, the growth in aviation emissions, if left unchecked, is liable to wreck attempts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. In Britain, for example, airlines’ emissions are growing by around 7% each year, even as the government prepares to set in law a commitment to cut national emissions to 60% below 1990 levels by 2050. According to the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, the rest of the economy would have to move to zero emissions in order to sustain aviation growth and meet the target.
It is clear that something will have to give. If real cuts are to be made in carbon emissions, aviation growth will certainly have to level off. The number of trips may even need to be cut. These are truths that the airline industry does not want to hear.
…But some, led by O’Leary’s Ryanair, are opposed from the start. US airlines are sending an equally indignant message behind the scenes, Pearson says. This opposition may lead to a legal challenge from US airlines to the proposed inclusion of intercontinental flights.
European Commission officials say they are confident of the legality of their approach. But if the US legal action or non-cooperation of the airlines make emissions trading unworkable, more radical alternatives may have to be considered. One such approach would be to review European adherence to the 1947 Chicago Convention, the international agreement that prohibits the taxation of aviation fuel, and hence gives the industry a permanent advantage over its competition, such as rail travel. That would really give O’Leary and his allies something to squeal about.
(11 Jan 2007)
Nature 445, 125-126 (11 January 2007. Complete article is behind a paywall.
Connecting the Global Warming Dots
Andrew C. Revkin, NY Times
If thought of as a painting, the scientific picture of a growing and potentially calamitous human influence on the climate has moved from being abstract a century ago to impressionistic 30 years ago to pointillist today.
The impact of a buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is now largely undisputed. Almost everyone in the field says the consequences can essentially be reduced to a formula: More CO2 = warmer world = less ice = higher seas. (Throw in a lot of climate shifts and acidifying oceans for good measure.)
But the prognosis – and the proof that people are driving much of the warming – still lacks the sharpness and detail of a modern-day photograph, which makes it hard to get people to change their behavior.
Indeed, the closer one gets to a particular pixel, be it hurricane strength, or the rate at which seas could rise, the harder it is to be precise. So what is the basis for the ever-stronger scientific agreement on the planet’s warming even in the face of blurry details?
As in a pointillist painting, the meaning emerges from the broadest view, from the “balance of evidence,” as the scientific case is described in the periodic reports issued by an enormous international network of experts: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, www.ipcc.ch. The main findings of the panel’s fourth assessment since 1990 will be released in Paris on Feb. 2.
(14 Jan 2007)
Nice explanation of the nature of scientific proof. I’m not sure, though, that the prime motivator behind human behavior is sharp and detailed proof. Inertia, vested interests, and lack of a compelling story seem to be more of a problem. -BA
EU Eyes Climate, Energy, Trade in New China Talks
David Brunnstrom, Reuters via Planet Ark
BRUSSELS – The European Union will urge China to do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions and cooperate on energy security next week when it launches negotiations on a broad new strategic partnership with Beijing.
…The EU announced plans on Wednesday for big cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions and wants to encourage big polluters like China to follow suit. It also hopes for cooperation rather than competition from China in securing future energy supplies.
“China is opening a new coal-fired power station every week and it’s clear we can’t achieve any of our objectives on emissions without China,” Ferrero-Waldner’s spokeswoman said.
“It is essential China is a partner in tackling climate change and that it is a partner in reviewing energy security.”
Ferrero-Waldner will discuss a climate change partnership in place since 2005 and the possibility of selling China new near-zero-emissions coal plant projects based on EU technology.
(15 Jan 2007)
World Economic Forum: Global Risks Are Outpacing Ability to Mitigate Them
Mike Milliken, Green Car Congress
The World Economic Forum-the organization that convenes the annual Davos meeting of global leaders-has released the Global Risks 2007 report. The report, published in cooperation with Citigroup, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Swiss Re and the Wharton School Risk Center, highlights a growing disconnect between the power of global risks to cause major systemic disruption and our ability to mitigate them.
Many of the 23 core global risks explored in the report have worsened over the last 12 months, despite growing awareness of their potential impacts, according to the report. In addition to specific risk mitigation measures, institutional innovations may be needed to create effective responses to a complex risk landscape.
The report suggests two such innovations-the appointment of Country Risk Officers and the creation of flexible coalitions around specific global risk issues, providing crucial momentum to mitigation efforts. The first would provide a focal point in government for mitigating global risks across departments, learning from private-sector approaches and escaping a silo-based approach. The second would allow mitigation strategies to emerge from dynamic interplay between governments and business, achieving a balance between inclusiveness and decisiveness.
The core risks fall into five primary categories…
(15 Jan 2007)
