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Oil’s Peak: The End May Be Nearer, It Seems
Editorial, Minneapolis Star Tribune via Common Dreams
Until recently, opinion on the future of world oil supplies was dominated by two views. One group of experts held that production would decline fairly soon, within a couple of decades at most. Another group argued that the crude would keep flowing for generations, thanks to ever-advancing detection and drilling technologies.
Either way, the scenario was for a gradual and orderly transition to fuels of the future. Now a third perspective is gaining both popular attention and professional respect — the notion that oil’s decline will be sharp and uncontrolled, following a peak that may be more or less at hand.
This “peak oil” theory is neither new — some geologists think the world has already passed the high point of recoverable reserves — nor universally accepted. But it is gaining ground as world demand surges, especially in China and India, and as the most important supplier shows signs of strain.
(27 August 2005)
Peak Oil Debunked?
Matt Savinar, Life After the Oil Crash
About a year and a half ago, shortly after I first put up this site, I was invited on a small radio program whose name now escapes me. I remember the show’s host asking me something to the effect of “What are some signs that the unraveling is imminent?”
I cited the usual factors that most of you are aware of along with an explanation that more or less said the following:
Once the peak/collapse is imminent, once the problem is obvious, you will likely see a proliferation of “debunkers.” Websites, books, pundits will come out of the woodwork to reassure everyone that things will be okay, that peak oil advocates are whackos, or unreliable alarmists that are profiting from fear. That if we just give the market a bit more time, or remove whatever factors are hindering the market, things will be work themselves out etc. . .
When I explained this, oil was around $30, less than 1,000 US troops had died in the oil war in Iraq, gas was still well under the $2.00 mark, and Peak Oil had received next-to-no attention from the mainstream media or from government.
A year and a half later, and Peak Oil is popping up everywhere. Which means the subject has now proliferated to the point where the market is ripe for “peak oil debunkers.”
(25 August 2005)
Mentioned by Professor Goose at The Oil Drum: “an interesting perspective [in which Savinar] summarizes where the “peak oil” has moved since he became involved.”
Peak Energy News Roundup
Big Gav, Peak Energy (Australia)
Snippets from the mainstream press and the blogosphere, with intelligent commentary.
(27 August 2005)
WHRW Interviews Julian Darley (AUDIO)
Tarik Abdelazim, Radio Free Binghamton via Global Public Media
Tarik Abdelazim of Radio Free Binghamton, 90.5 WHRW-FM talks to Global Public Media’s Julian Darley about peak oil and ways to mitigate post-peak effects.
(28 July 2005)
Jan Lundberg talks about peak oil & gas prices (AUDIO)
Jan Lundberg, Live 105 via Global Public Media
Jan Lundberg, former analyst for the petroleum industries, discusses the so-called record price for gasoline in the U.S. and the relationship of price to peak oil on San Francisco’s Live 105. Lundberg also refuted the notion that U.S. corporate competitiveness makes the economy immune from high oil prices. To read more on gasoline and oil prices and Lundberg’s favorite solutions to petroleum dependence, visit CultureChange.org.
(21 August 2005)
James Howard Kunstler interview with Robert Birnbaum (transcript)
Global Public Media
A simple statement but a nightmarish one: we can no longer expect to have more energy, only remorselessly less energy. An intense chat with author James Howard Kunstler about the chaos that will rattle our society once the energy disaster takes hold.
(28 August 2005)
A long interview.
Matt Simmons on CNN: Lou Dobbs Tonight (transcript)
CNN via Global Public Media
August 24, 2005, Matt Simmons appeared on Lou Dobbs Tonight on CNN to talk about his new book, “Twilight in the Desert”.
(25 August 2005)
Green Car Congress monitors energy issues
Mike Millikin, Green Car Congress
The global energy economy is on the brink of a fundamental forced transformation, with enormous market opportunities for new solutions in energy and transportation. Two interrelated drivers are propelling this change: global over-dependence on fossil fuels and emissions-driven climate change.
The energy and transportation markets are complex and confusing, with numerous competing and complementary approaches to energy, fuel and engine options, engine management issues, policy issues, safety and material issues, and different timelines for development and deployment.
Transformation of these sprawling and critical markets requires the educated, cross-disciplinary participation of all stakeholders: engineers and technicians, businesses and professionals, consumers and enthusiasts.
Green Car Congress is dedicated to bringing news and analysis of the energy choices, technologies, products, issues and policies related to sustainable mobility to that broad audience.
(28 August 2005)
Green Car Congress has been including energy issues in its continuing coverage of green personal transport. Glad to see more people tracking the news! The above excerpt is from GCC’s About Us page.
A Peak Oil Primer (100-KB PDF)
Carol Dixon and Bob Banner, HopeDance Magazine
A two-page flyer summarizing Peak Oil and listing sources of information (websites, books and videos).
(no date)
Gulf Oil Supply/Katrina Weather Map Update
Prof. Goose, The Oil Drum
This thing could be a big deal, not just because New Orleans is a prime target (remember water has to be pumped out of NO because it is under sea level) under the current models for Katrina, but she could also disrupt Gulf supplies of petroleum, both from rigs and from refineries, for a while. With supply and demand balanced on a knife’s edge as it is, this could lead to huge amounts of volatilty in the oil markets for weeks to come.
Update [2005-8-26 22:38:10 by Prof. Goose]:As someone said over at peakoil.com, this sure sounds a lot like the plot of The Oil Storm.
The first graphic is probability swath for Katrina with the recently damaged Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development that will ramp up to 100,000 bd; the Holstein development that will also produce, at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that will begin production next year and will ramp up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they are sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.
(27 August 2005)
