" />
Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

ODAC Newsletter - Jul 20

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre at nef dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Oil prices rose this week as geopolitical tensions trumped economic concerns. The Syrian conflict, oil sanctions against Iran, and a suicide bombing of an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria, which Israel blamed on Iran, all added to fear of disruption in the region.

A paper from the G20 released this week suggested there might be other factors at work behind the oil price, claiming the market is vulnerable to being rigged like Libor. Maybe so, but the impact on the long term trend in the oil price can only be marginal. A recent paper from economists at the IMF found the only factor that explained the upward march since the turn of the century was the increasing difficulty of extracting oil. Also the cost of the marginal barrel has risen dramatically: tar sands producers require $90-plus for new projects, while Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers need over $100 to balance their budgets post Arab-spring.

Oil prices could soon slump, according to former Eni executive Leonardo Maugeri, who recently published a report predicting the oil market is about to enter a glut. In our July 6th newsletter ODAC published commentary from Steven Sorrell and Christophe McGlade debunking Maugeri's work. Now, on further examination, they have found the errors appear even larger than they first thought; Maugeri's implied decline rate is not 1.6% but 1.4%, in contrast to well-established estimates from the IEA and CERA of more than 4%. Replacing Maugeri's rate with that of the IEA now entirely eliminates the increased oil supply he projected to 2020. See the updated commentary.

Shell's controversial Arctic campaign got off to a rather sticky start this week as their drilling vessel slipped its anchor and apparently ran aground, which proved a godsend for Greenpeace's Save the Arctic campaign. The organization recently launched a spoof website called arcticready.com, and this week its protests shut down 74 Shell petrol stations in Britain. Whether any of this will affect decisions on drilling remains to be seen.

Meanwhile in the UK the government remained at loggerheads about its plans to decarbonize the energy supply. The rumours are that Energy Secretary Ed Davey can't get a meeting with the Treasury to decide on the level of cuts to onshore wind subsidies.

View our Reports and Resources page

Oil

Oil rises above $106 on Middle East tension

Back to top

Oil prices could be rigged by traders warns G20 report

Back to top

Markets Beware: Hormuz Still Vital To Global Energy Balance

Back to top

Iran arrests oil export decline as China buys more

Back to top

Major embarrassment for Shell as Arctic oil drilling ship slips its anchor and ends up 'grounded' in Alaska harbour

Back to top

Greenpeace activists shut down 74 UK Shell petrol stations

Back to top

Power grid in sea reaches for new depths

Back to top

Italy Seeks $18 Billion Investment Ditching Offshore Ban: Energy

Back to top

Electricity

Germany May Scrap Energy-Source Goal As Overhaul Stumbles

Back to top

Nuclear

Finland's Olkiluoto 3 nuclear plant delayed again

Back to top

Emails reveal UK government's moves to protect nuclear power from bad news

Back to top

UK

CBI voices "mounting frustration" over delay to renewables subsidy decision

Back to top

George Osborne in standoff over coalition's green energy plans

Back to top

DONG Energy and Siemens ink offshore turbine mega-deal

Back to top

Downing Street calls on regulator to investigate petrol price rigging

Back to top

People power: why we believe in championing community energy

Back to top

Energy projects in frame as Treasury announces £50bn in loan guarantees

Back to top

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Make connections via our GROUPS page.
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


New Russia Sanctions: Washington, Delusional About US Energy Capacity, Lashes Out

The effect of the sanctions will be to speed the Russian decline, forcing up …

Shales vs. solar: An investment perspective

But perhaps the real proof of a new energy paradigm shift lies in the fact …

Peak Oil Review - July 28

A weekly review including Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East & …

The Changing Face of World Oil Markets

My conclusion is that hundred-dollar oil is here to stay.

IEA Oil Market Forecast: Optimistic Assumptions And An Economy Unable To Grow Out Of Its Problems

The International Energy Authority does does its best to paint a rosy …

Energy Crunch: Global debate heats up

News that last month was the world’s hottest June on record provided …

Divest! - Then What?

Divestment is one of the great campaigns of our times.But the question then …