" />
Building a world of
resilient communities.



Peak oil notes - May 24

Developments this week
This week oil prices have continued the precipitous drop that began in early May sending prices down some $17 a barrel to close at $89.90 in NY and $105.56 in London. The usual factors – weak demand, increasing stockpiles, a falling Euro, economic and political turmoil in the EU, and some movement in the Iranian nuclear negotiations – all contributed to the decline. Along the way some new records are being set. US crude inventories are now at their highest in 22 years; US gasoline consumption for the week is at a 12-year low; and the Euro at the lowest level since July 2010.

With no end to the decline in sight, analysts are talking about $85 and even $75 oil shortly. It should be noted that the cost of production in many tight oil fields, tar sands projects, and even some deep water wells is very close to the new lower pricing of oil. If prices drop much further, we could start seeing cutbacks in some of the high-cost sources of oil production as we did in 2008.

The full extent of the decline in crude prices has not yet made it to many retail gas pumps. Along the West Coast, gasoline is still going for $4.20-4.30 a gallon and we still have not had word on the possible closure of a major Philadelphia refinery at the end of July. MasterCard reports that US gasoline consumption was up last week to the highest level since December but is still running behind the same week last year. The EIA reported that US gasoline stocks were down by 3.3 million barrels last week suggesting that a lot of gasoline exporting is going on.

There seems to be continuing disagreement at the Iranian nuclear talks in Baghdad which are going over into a second day. Despite some sort of agreement between Tehran and the IAEA concerning inspections, the situation still seems as dangerous as ever. After years claiming they are not building a bomb, the Iranians are obviously not going to let inspectors anywhere near evidence that would invalidate this claim.

With the standoff between the Germans and Greece’s voters going nowhere, it now seems like Athens exit from the zone is only a matter of time. The Germans have ruled out “Euro Bonds” which was the latest scheme to rescue Greece. The issue now is how fast and bad the fallout of Greece’s departure will be. The OECD has slashed its Eurozone growth forecast due to recessions in Italy and Spain, and sees threats to global economic recovery.

US natural gas prices have held steady around $2.72 per million this week. This is getting into the price range last seen in February and with a 70 cent per million increase in the last month many utilities may be considering turning off the gas-fired boilers again. The continuing drop in drilling for gas should be bringing production down soon and forecasts of some warmer-than-usual weather ahead increasing the demand for electricity continue to support prices.

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Rural Colorado Leads the Charge for Energy Freedom

Last week the Western Slope Colorado witnessed a huge victory for energy …

“We are in danger of winning. But….”  

First in-depth radio interview on The Winning of the Carbon War, on Radio …

Renewable Energy Redoubles its Global Reach

A significant threshold has been crossed by renewable energy as analysts …

Peak Oil Review - June 29

A weekly review in including Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East …

Energy Crunch - six months to go

With fewer than six months to go until the UN climate summit in Paris, …

BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand

The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy …

Peak Oil Notes - June 25

A midweek update. There was little change in oil prices so far this week as …