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ODAC Newsletter - Nov 11

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

The latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency came with a double warning. On the one hand, oil prices could soon spike to $150 once more, on the other, the world is barely five years away from sealing its fate on climate change.

Oil prices will average $120 per barrel to 2035, says the IEA, and volatility is here to stay. But the price could soon top the record $147 of 2008 if producers in Middle East and North African (MENA) fail to invest enough in new capacity. The oil supply is increasingly dependent on MENA countries, which need to spend $100 billion per year to keep up with global demand. If they miss that target by a third over the next few years, prices will spike again. The IEA didn't say it, but this outlook seems to condemn the industrial countries to serial recessions until they radically reduce their oil dependency; the OECD has reached economic peak oil.

The IEA still has oil production rising to 99 mb/d on 2035, but as usual the forecast depends on some fairly heroic assumptions: the world needs to add 47 mb/d of gross production capacity, twice the current combined output of the Middle East OPEC countries, with 10mb/d coming from unconventional sources and almost 8 mb/d from Iraq.

On the climate, the Agency said the window to avoid global warming of more than 2°C could be closed for good by 2017. Four fifths of the emissions needed to push temperatures past the limit of 'dangerous' climate change are already locked in by existing capital stock — power stations, buildings, factories. On current trends, the remainder will be locked in by 2017. It would, in theory, be possible to get back on track after that date by retiring capital stock before the end of its economic life, but that would push up the cost enormously. In the power sector, for every $1 of low carbon investment avoided before 2020, an extra $4.30 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the additional emissions - one in the eye for the anti-wind brigade. In summary, says the IEA, "If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're heading".

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Oil

'Invest in production or see oil hit record $150 a barrel'

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Saudi set to overtake Russia as top oil producer

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E.U. Poised to Overtake U.S. as Biggest Oil Importer

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IEA economist: 'We have to leave oil before it leaves us'

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IEA fears oil spike; OPEC dreads European defaults

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Crude Rises Near Three-Month High on Europe Sentiment, U.S. Inventories

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Brazil's oil boom: Filling up the future

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BP woes pile up as Argentine deal collapses

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Oil drilling plan to focus on Gulf of Mexico

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Oil demand globally to peak before 2020

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Keystone XL Pipeline Decision to Be Investigated

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Gas

Pipeline Opening Highlights Russian Energy Role

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Pawns in play on Antarctic ice-cap

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Nuclear

Energy Costs to Rise 'Viciously' Without Nuclear, IEA Says

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France Can't Afford to Give Up Nukes, Utility Chief Says

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Renewables

A Coal Region's Quest to Switch to Renewables

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Here Comes the Sun

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Taming Unruly Wind Power

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UK

Britain can't afford to bet its future on shale gas - wind turbines are here to stay

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Wind power sector slams 'flawed' KPMG energy report

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MP backs gas fracking despite reports of quakes in Blackpool

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Emergency power systems to be worth £1.5bn by 2020

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Energy companies join forces for UK's first carbon-capture project

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Scottish green energy plan unrealistic, report warns

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Climate

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns

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Australia passes landmark carbon price laws

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