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Oil - Dec 10

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Oil field delays mean higher 2010 crude price: EIA

Chris Baltimore, Reuters
The U.S. government's top energy forecaster on Tuesday said it raised its estimate for world crude prices in 2010 by about 20 percent to near $60 a barrel due to delays bringing new oil fields on line.

African producers like Angola and Nigeria and Latin American states like Brazil will be slower than initially projected in ramping up production from new projects, putting a squeeze on world supply, said Guy Caruso, administrator of the Energy Information Administration.

"It's clearly going to take longer now to bring on the new supplies and to have an impact on price than we were thinking a year ago," Caruso told reporters.
(5 Dec 2006)


A Sea of Oil

Kommersant
The fight for Caspian oil will be one of the biggest issues in international politics in years to come
~~
...Proven reserves of Caspian oil and natural gas amount to 4 percent of the world supply. International Energy Agency analysts estimate that the regions oil reserves may prove to be 20 percent of the world supply. Experts in a U.S. Congress research group note that, besides the size of the reserves, Caspian oil has the advantage of being cheap to produce. Only Middle Eastern oil can compare to it in both those respects.

Political risks in the region are significant, but lower than in Africa. It is also important that only one of the Caspian states, Iran is an OPEC member.

...Four major forces are gathering around the Caspian. They are China, Russia, the United States and the EU. Several factors limit investors at present: Russia's control over most of the delivery routes to Europe, an undeveloped infrastructure and political risks that are mainly connected with the Iranian nuclear program. Heritage Foundation analysts say that none of them will be able to dominate the region single-handedly.
(5 Dec 2006)


Geopolitics move back into focus for oil market

Robert Campbell, Reuters
Geopolitical concerns are moving back to the forefront of oil traders' considerations after three months of intense focus on market fundamentals, opening the door to sudden increases in oil prices even as the supply situation remains relatively comfortable.

Oil prices have been largely range-bound between $55 and $62 per barrel since early October even as OPEC moved to reduce supplies by 1.2 million barrels per day.

The market's focus on healthy stocks of crude oil and refined products in the major consuming countries eroded the so-called risk premium that was built into prices earlier this year, analysts said this week.
(1 Dec 2006)

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