Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Olduvai update

[ Dr. Richard Duncan, a petroleum engineer and Director of the Institute on Energy and Man, has accomplished extensive modeling of petroleum resources. His Olduvai theory states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030, based on his projections for the ratio of world energy production and population. Previously he has stated that the begining of the 'Olduvai cliff' marked by permanent blackouts would occur around 2012. He has now moved that date forward to 2008. The full text of the update will be available soon -AF ]

The final draft of the Olduvai update is complete. The update is based on world energy and population data from 1850 through 2003. Prior to submission for publication review, the following brief is available.

The Olduvai 'cliff' event has been moved closer to the present by four years: namely from 2012 previously to 2008 in the update.

The other major findings are contained in three paragraphs of the paper's Summary:

BEGIN:

Historic data of world energy production, world population, and the ratio of the two (e) were presented, discussed, and graphed from 1850 to 2003. The graph of e revealed 1) strong growth in e from 1945 to 1970, 2) weak growth from 1970 to 1979, and 3) no growth from 1979 through 2003. The latter interval comprises the historic 'Olduvai plateau'.

Postulate 2 of the Olduvai theory states, "Energy production per capita (e) will decline exponentially from the cliff event circa 2008 to 2030." If that is true, then the population in the world's industrial nations, we argue, will go from about 3.3 billion in 2008 to about 0.9 billion in 2030, a net die-off of about 300,000 people per day in the 22 years from 2008 to 2030.

Mother Nature is waiting patiently to solve for us the problems that we either could not or would not solve for ourselves.

END.

Editorial Notes: See here for earlier articles by Richard Duncan: www.mnforsustain.org/author_duncan_richard.htm

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Make connections via our GROUPS page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


Energy Crunch: a clean energy revolution?

Will 2015 prove to be a tipping point in the journey to a zero carbon energy …

With Corporate Energy, We're Stuck in the Dark Ages – Let's Switch to Public Ownership

It is clear that Britain has an energy problem.

Peak Oil Notes - Mar 5

A midweek update. Oil prices have been volatile this week as traders attempt …

The Paradox of Oil: The Cheaper it is, the More it Costs

While the exact timing of the current fall in prices may have come as a …

Stranded Assets in Oil and Gas a Reality

Though climate change will no doubt prove to be one aspect of stranded …

IEA report: US shale oil growth practically zero in 2017

US growth is seen to decline to a meagre 160 kb/d by 2017. That is plausible …

Richard Heinberg on Our Renewable Future

Richard Heinberg discusses our renewable future and how to get there.