Peak oil – May 28

May 27, 2006

Click on the headline (link) for the full text.

Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage


BBC Docu-drama May 30: “If… The Oil Runs Out”

BBC
The demand for energy has risen relentlessly over the last 150 years in line with industrial development and population growth. And as economies of developing countries like China and India continue to grow, it is predicted demand will rise by a further 50% by 2030.

President Bush has already warned the United States that it is too reliant on oil, often from “unstable” countries, and that it must find alternatives. Geologists are searching in Arctic Alaska, around the Falkland Islands and under the oceans for the last remaining sizeable reserves of oil.

But what will happen if the fuel crisis is not resolved?

Blending drama and documentary, the IF series returns with a film investigating a scenario many experts fear will come true. When the cheap oil we depend on starts to run out, we may not be able to take anything for granted any more.

It is 2016 and the world is in crisis.

Global supplies of oil cannot keep up with soaring demand and the price of petrol is going through the roof. The oil companies are in a desperate race to find any remaining oil reserves but what happens if there is no more out there?

Combining expert interviews with a fictional story line, the drama-documentary examines how our lives will change as the price of fuel starts to spiral out of control.

The film interweaves the story of Jess, an exploration geologist working for an international oil company, with the impact of the fuel crisis on her parents back home in Minneapolis.
(25 May 2006)


St. Louis Post-Dispatch: Will we run out of oil?

Jeffrey Tomich, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
It was on a 2003 trip to Saudi Arabia and tour of the country’s oil fields that curiosity got the best of energy investment banker Matthew Simmons.

For several years after writing a white paper on the world’s largest oil fields, Simmons, of Houston, held doubts about OPEC’s ability to continually pump more crude, and questions raised on the weeklong trip compelled him to dig deeper.

Over the next year, he pored over more than 200 technical papers from the files of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, all leading him to a startling conclusion: Saudi Arabia may not be able to squeeze more crude from its giant, aging oil fields as the kingdom claims it will. In fact, the country’s oil output — indeed, the world’s — soon may be in decline. And the consequences could be dire.

“For 50 years we just assumed that the Middle East has unlimited supplies of oil,” he said in an interview Wednesday in Clayton, where he gave a speech to the St. Louis Society of CFAs. “If we basically blow by this one and say it’s not going to happen, we could have the shock of our lives.”

Simmons’ argument is detailed in his book published last year, “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.” The book has thrust Simmons into the role as de facto champion of the so-called peak oil movement and subjected him to criticism, even ridicule, from some of the oil industry’s biggest players, who portray him as a provocateur.

There’s been no bigger critic than Daniel Yergin, the author of a Pulitzer-prize winning book on the history of the oil industry and head of energy consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

…Exactly when the world’s oil production reaches a peak isn’t really relevant. And even if it peaks, it doesn’t mean the world’s oil wells are running dry, Simmons said. What is important is that demand will outstrip supply. And there’s an immediate need to reduce energy intensity so that the shock isn’t so severe, as well as to explore for oil and natural gas in areas that currently are off limits, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the outer continental shelf.

“We’ve got to reduce intensity of how we transport things, goods, people,” he said. “And if we don’t, then we ought to get our uniforms on and get in the trenches for a really nasty energy war.”

Simmons and his critics can agree on some points. Oil is a finite resource, and a surge in demand has resulted in little, if any, spare production capacity.
(28 May 2006)
An original article by a St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter. A next step might be to find local experts and groups in the St. Louis area to get the local angle. -BA


Peak-oil theory and its development implications

Editorial, AME Info (Dubai)
Denying the idea that Middle East oilfields are getting old and might soon go into decline has become an article of faith in local oil circles. But re-reading the controversial main text of the peak-oil theorists should perhaps be required by regional economic planners.

The most controversial book of the decade concerning the Middle East is not to do with religion or terrorism. It is Matthew Simmons book ‘Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy’.

However, like most controversial tomes its message has been so distorted and taken out of context that important points are overlooked. So what is the thesis that Houston-based investment banker Mr. Simmons propounds?

… any notion that the peak oil theory means a financial disaster for the Middle East and an end to energy production is actually refuted in the controversial book that caused all the fuss in the first place. Clearly the main problem of peak-oil would be for the consumer nations faced with a sudden escalation of oil prices and an energy crisis of major proportions.

Mr. Simmons main demand is that oil producer countries publish all of the data available on their oil fields and face up to reality rather than being concerned to maintain a facade that can only make the eventual impact of the decline of oil production that much stronger. Besides, if the opponents of peak-oil are correct then greater transparency of data will support their case, and this controversial theory can be finally dismissed.

If Mr. Simmons is right and there is little additional oil and gas to be found in the Middle East and the present oil and gas fields are in a state of advanced maturity, then the implications for development are profound.
(27 May 2006)
AME Info calls itself “the ultimate Middle East business resource.


Tags: Energy Policy