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Articles: forecasts (4)

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The more uncertain we are, the more careful we should be

It is a staple of apologists for the chemical and fossil fuel industries to say, "We have no proof that what you are talking about is dangerous." Let me restate that in probabilistic terms: "We are highly uncertain about the harm of what you are talking about."

Dueling forecasts: Why our energy future is actually a risk management problem

It is well to remember that none of people making forecasts can know the one thing they all desperately want to know: the future.

Bad advice: Why the future won't be like the past

It's easy to get bad advice from successful people. Here's why: Successful people assume that the same circumstances that prevailed while they were achieving their success will generally prevail while you are pursuing yours.

Not at that price: Why long-term forecasts for cheap oil and natural gas are baseless

Here's the short version of why forecasts of low long-term oil and natural gas prices are almost certainly wrong: It costs more than that to get the stuff out of the ground.

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