Since the autumn of 2011, a storyline of “oil revolution” and oil abundance--even “North American energy independence”—has taken the US media by storm.
Articles: US oil production (4)
The key take-away from the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook released one week ago jumps out in the graph below: US crude oil production should peak in 2016 at a level 26% higher than that projected just one year ago.
Before I discuss the logic behind negating a peak of production of anything, let me sum up where we are in the U.S. in terms of crude oil production.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides unrealistically high oil forecasts in its new 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEO). It claims, among other things, that the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030.