When it becomes apparent that US tight (shale) oil has peaked, there will be a public confidence crisis because the media are parroting the oil and gas industry’s claim that shale oil is an energy revolution and game changer. Indeed, the game will change, but in unexpected ways.
Articles: US oil production (8)
What's really going on with US oil production?
We spoke with Chris Nelder in Extraenvironmentalist episde #76. This is the first part of a transcript prepared by EE listener Scott.
A midweek update. New York and London futures prices have risen about $2 a barrel this week closing at $102.37 and $110.19 respectively on Wednesday.
Since the autumn of 2011, a storyline of “oil revolution” and oil abundance--even “North American energy independence”—has taken the US media by storm.
The key take-away from the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook released one week ago jumps out in the graph below: US crude oil production should peak in 2016 at a level 26% higher than that projected just one year ago.
Before I discuss the logic behind negating a peak of production of anything, let me sum up where we are in the U.S. in terms of crude oil production.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides unrealistically high oil forecasts in its new 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEO). It claims, among other things, that the United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, and will become a net oil exporter by 2030.