Introduction: Credit Suisse reported that there is not enough East coast gas for 3 LNG export terminals at Gladstone, Queensland. If that is the case then it is doubtful whether there will be sufficient gas to replace petrol and diesel by gas as transport fuel.
Australia’s LNG market a ‘slow train crash’ says Credit Suisse analyst
Credit Suisse energy analysts calculate that the three Queensland LNG projects are short of as much as 8800 petajoules of gas reserves to meet their 20-year LNG sales contracts, an amount equivalent to 12 times the annual consumption of gas across Australia excluding Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
Voters are largely ignoring warnings about a looming gas shortage, with domestic gas prices set to double as LNG exports link east coast prices to global ones.
- Proven and probable (2P) reserves, indicative of best estimates of commercially viable gas in the ground.
- Best estimate contingent (2C) resources, indicative of best estimates of gas in the ground that is commercially viable under conditions of increased commodity prices.
- Proven, probable and possible (3P) reserves, indicative of potentially commercially viable gas in the ground where volumes are less certain than the 2P classification.
- Prospective resources, indicative of gas that is both uncertain in volume and commercially viable only under increased commodity prices.
- production from committed 2P reserves drops sharply in 2018
- production from total proven and probable (2P) reserves starts to decline 6 years later in 2024, dropping to half within another 6 years.
- 3P/2C resources (5,838 PJ) which are now uncommercial would have to be “proved up” from 2024 onwards (Cooper, Eromanga, Gippsland), guaranteeing rising gas prices. They exceed slightly the figure of 5,209 PJ given in table 3.4
- total production of 2P and 3P/2C in the graph is 20,314 PJ which exceeds 17,007 PJ reserves from table 4.1