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Peak Oil Warning From an IMF Expert : Interview with Michael Kumhof

Matthieu Auzanneau, The Oil Man blog, Le Monde blogs
Michael Kumhof is the deputy chief of the modeling division at the research department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Together with other researchers from IMF, this 50 years old German economist has published several papers focused of "peak oil", sending warnings regarding the possible imminence of a decline of world oil production and its impacts.

Echos of these concerns about peak oil are nowhere to be found in the official policy line of IMF, nor has Michael Kumhof ever been asked to present his research to the political leadership of IMF. That does not make his work pointless…

Matthieu Auzanneau What made you focus on the peak oil issue ?

Michael Kumhof – I’ve have been personally concerned with this question for almost ten years. I am not certain of when a decline of world oil production might occur. But when I look at the world economy, the implications of such a possible decline would be so grave that I feel that, as a scientific researcher, I have to consider this issue very seriously…
(5 December 2012)
See the complete article in French at Oil Man. Bloggers and journalists, please cite that URL and give proper attribution. Matthieu Auzanneau is an independent journalists and needs recognition and support to continue with his work.

Bosses’ fears over energy and resource costs hit new high

James Murray, Business Green
More than half of chief executives regard energy and raw material costs as a major threat to their growth prospects, according to a new survey of nearly 800 corporate bosses from around the world.

Preliminary findings from PwC’s Annual Global CEO Survey reveal concerns over energy costs and resource scarcity are at a three-year high, with 53 per cent of chief executives claiming the issues have overtaken sluggish consumer spending as one of the top threats to future growth, a seven percentage point increase on last year.

The company said concerns over rising energy prices and raw material price shocks were most pronounced in developing economies in Asia and Africa, but high numbers of chief executives in all geographies regard environmental issues as a growing risk…
(10 December 2012)

Total CEO: New Peak Oil Production Seen at 98 Million Barrels/Day

Geraldine Amiel, Dow Jones
New discoveries and technological advances have increased the oil industry’s ability to increase production in recent years, pushing global maximum oil production to 98 million barrels per day for longer than initially expected, Total SA’s (TOT) Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said Tuesday.

Global oil production should plateau at that level for some time before dropping as reserves gradually deplete, Mr. de Margerie said during a meeting with the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris.

Technological constraints led the French oil major to estimate in 2007 that the "peak oil" production rate would be at around 95 million barrels per day, or mb/d–a conservative estimate compared with those of its competitors…  
(11 December 2012)


US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Key updates made for the AEO2013 Reference case include the following:

Extension of the projection period through 2040, an additional five years beyond AEO2012.

Adoption of a new Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM) in place of the Petroleum Market Module used in earlier AEOs provides for more granular and integrated modeling of petroleum refineries and all other types of current and potential future liquid fuels production technologies. This allows more direct analysis and modeling of the regional supply and demand effects involving crude oil and other feedstocks, current and future processes, and marketing to consumers.

A shift to the use of Brent spot price as the reference oil price. AEO2013 also presents the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, and includes the U.S. annual average refiners’ acquisition cost of imported crude oil, which is more representative of the average cost of all crude oils used by domestic refiners.
(5 December 2012)
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