Building a world of
resilient communities.



ODAC Newsletter Nov 23

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre at nef dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

A week of brutal bombing and rocket fire between Israel and Hamas pushed oil prices back to around $110/barrel this week. A fragile ceasefire is now in place, but there is much concern that it will be short-lived. Oil market news may all be about US production, but it is primarily the politics and geopolitics of the Middle East that is still driving global oil prices.

The idea of the US as the new Saudi Arabia, much reported in the press following the release of the IEA's World Energy Outlook last week, was still in the news this week. At FT Alphaville Kate MacKenzie quoted Bernstein Research, which anticipates both a lower and shorter peak to the US oil production renaissance. Neil Beveridge of Bernstein comments that "shale liquids plays are far rarer than their related shale gas plays and already we are seeing decline in some of the core areas of the Bakken oil field highlighting the early onset of maturity in some of these plays", they anticipate US production of 10.5million b/d in 2015 but then back down to 9 million b/d by 2020, while the IEA predicts 11.1 million b/d in 2020.

To really get a picture of the scale of the investment and activity needed to replace conventional oil production with shale you need only to look at the following chart compiled by ODAC newsletter reader and Deputy Director at the Cambridge University Programme for Sustainability Leadership, Gary Kendall. The red line is US consumption, the green line is production and the blue line shows the rig count. It starkly illustrates the extraordinary effort required to achieve the recent increase in output , and casts doubt on how long it can be maintained. Drill baby drill.




Late breaking news as ODAC goes to press: the Chancellor has agreed £7.6 billion support for low carbon energy until 2020 funded from increased bills, and the Energy Bill will include powers to set a target for electricity decarbonisation by 2030, although the target itself will not be set until 2016 — after the next election. Energy and Climate Select Committee chairman Tim Yeo told Radio 4 that DECC had 'won on points', but BBC Environment Analyst Roger Harrabin declared George Osborne the winner. More details next week after the Bill has been published in full.

Correction to November 16, 2012 newsletter: The final bullet point in last week's newsletter has been amended to read 'North America will be a net oil exporter by 2030, with the US producing 11.1 million b/d in 2020 and 10.2 mb/d in 2030. Note that current US demand is 18.8 mb/d'. This reflects the fact that the IEA predicts that North America rather than the US becoming a net exporter by 2030.

View our Reports and Resources page


Oil Pares Weekly Gain as Middle East Tension Eases on Cease-Fire

Back to top

China stops filling strategic oil reserve

Back to top

Oil nations asked to consider carbon tax on exports

Back to top

Exxon warning adds to Nigeria oil output problems

Back to top

US shale oil abundance: Bernstein vs the IEA

Back to top

Canadian energy: The sands of grime

Back to top


Shale gas needs regulation, not a ban -European Parliament

Back to top

Methane leaks suggest fracking benefits exaggerated

Back to top

Shell CEO throws weight behind Government's 'dash for gas'

Back to top


More than 1,000 new coal plants planned worldwide, figures show

Back to top


CCS could be cost-competitive with nuclear by 2020s

Back to top


Government delays setting carbon target until 2016

Back to top

Ed Davey: households to get cheaper energy bills after paying too much

Back to top

Prince Charles flicks switch on UK's 'first' biogas to grid plant

Back to top

Good Energy launches 'first' community wind farm tariff

Back to top

MP Peter Lilley has received more than $400,000 in oil company share options

Back to top


World Bank: Governments must tackle climate change 'more aggressively'

Back to top

Greenhouse gases reach record levels in 2011

Back to top

Study: Carbon pricing can help Europe cut deficits

Back to top

Influential investors call for action on 'serious climate danger'

Back to top

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

The Curse of the Modern Office

The information society promises to dematerialise society and make it more …

Howling at the USGS’s Wolfcamp Announcement

The recent USGS announcement about the Wolfcamp play may inspire another …

Transition in Ireland  

Ireland is one of the most advanced countries in energy transition, getting …

Trudeau’s Six Unanswered Questions on Kinder Morgan Expansion

In early November, the Trudeau government tabled a ministerial panel report …

Tiffany's Fallacy: the Mineral Pie is Shrinking, and Most of What's Left is in the Sky

In the debates that deal with energy and fossil fuels, it is rather common …

Peak Oil in a Fact-Free World: the New "Oil Bonanza" in West Texas

So, the USGS comes out with a press release that the media immediately …

Why the Office Needs a Typewriter Revolution

Artificial cooling and digital equipment are the main drivers behind the …