" />
Building a world of
resilient communities.



ODAC Newsletter - Sep 7

Welcome back to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre at nef dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

The summer holidays brought no relief on oil prices with Brent climbing back to $115/barrel. Sanctions on Iran and hurricane Isaac are having an effect, but recent reports from Barclays Capital and Citigroup point to more fundamental issues.

Barclays sees the oil supply tightening, with strong US production growth offset by falling output elsewhere in non-OPEC, pushing prices to an average $125 per barrel next year and possibly $180 by 2020. Barclays also dismisses any notion of US energy independence — recently revived by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in a sadly predictable and lame 'white paper'. Barclays forecasts US imports of more than 5 mb/d will persist beyond 2020 "even assuming the maintenance of high prices in what we would consider an already highly supply-optimistic and demand-pessimistic scenario".

Part of the tightening oil picture is increased domestic oil demand in producing countries, leading to a reduction in exports. Citigroup released a report this week raising a red flag that Saudi Arabia could become a net oil importer in the next 20 years. While much of Saudi consumption is for electricity generation and the kingdom is taking action to find substitutes, the trend is still towards less oil being available to the global market.

US geologist and exploration manager Jeffrey Brown, who blogs as westexas, has shown global net exports fell by 3mb/d between 2005 and 2010, while imports by China and India rose by 2.5 mb/d, reducing the oil exports available to the rest of the world by 5.5 mb/d altogether. If these trends were to continue, he says, 'available net exports' would fall to zero by 2030.

So how will the UK government respond to these challenges? Following this week's reshuffle, it looks as if policy is tilting ever more towards a dead-end scramble for the remaining hydrocarbons rather than secure and low-carbon renewable energy. The prime minister appointed Owen Patterson to DEFRA and John Hayes to DECC, both of whom have spoken against wind energy in the past. They might want to look at the latest report from the Institute for Public Policy Research, which concludes that wind is an effective alternative. Ed Davey remains as Energy and Climate Change Secretary, but his job just got even more difficult.

View our Reports and Resources page


Report kicks up debate on how high oil will go

Back to top

Saudi Arabia May Become Oil Importer by 2030, Citigroup Says

Back to top

Oil Trades Near One-Week High on Outlook for Stimulus, Economy

Back to top

Study throws cold water on Arctic oil, gas dreams

Back to top

Total insists Shtokman Russian Arctic gas project not delayed 'indefinitely'

Back to top

Statoil delays start of Chukchi drilling until at least 2015

Back to top

Russian oil production hits post-Soviet record

Back to top

Shell to Test Capturing of Carbon in Canada

Back to top

BP sued 'for hiding truth over safety' in Gulf oil disaster

Back to top

Jordanians protest as petrol price rises again

Back to top


Gazprom gears up to fight EU gas investigation

Back to top


Australia scraps dirty power station closure plan

Back to top

Critics say Canada softens coal-fired power rules

Back to top


French Set For Power Gap In Three Years On Nuclear Shutdowns

Back to top

China could take key role in UK nuclear infrastructure through Hinkley Point

Back to top


US and EU must change biofuel targets to avert food crisis, says Nestlé chief

Back to top


Cameron appoints oil and gas friendly decision-makers

Back to top

Ed Davey moves to shield renewables amid reshuffle

Back to top

UK wind power predictable enough to keep lights on, says think tank IPPR

Back to top

Chancellor unveils tax break for older North Sea oil and gas fields

Back to top

Chief scientist issues warning over DECC budget cuts

Back to top


A Chinese City Moves to Limit New Cars

Back to top

POD Point launches pay-as-you-go car charging network

Back to top

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Thoughts on Significance of Solar Impulse as it Finishes Epic Round-the-World Trip

My interview on BBC World Service Newshour: the heroism of the adventurer …

An Industrial Strategy for Energy

What’s also clear is that while nuclear power is tending to get more …

South Australia’s Electricity Price Woes are more Due to Gas than Wind

The past few weeks have seen extraordinarily high wholesale electricity …

Former Inspectors Describe Dangerous Flaws in Construction of Major East Coast Gas Pipeline

In April, a massive explosion ripped through rural Salem Township, …

Northwest Tribes Band Together to Stop Oil-by-Rail

There’s no such thing as a good place for an oil-train derailment, but …

The Role of Development Banks in Energy Transition  

Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) like the World Bank, the African …

Peak Oil Review - July 18 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Oil and the global …