Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Peak oil – oil prices need to double in a decade


Suggested by EB contributor Ian McPherson, who writes on his blog:

Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.

The world economy could not cope with a doubling of oil prices, which begs the question of whether world oil production can be increased at all, at a price that anyone can afford.

Kumhof is very careful to stress the uncertainties surrounding the IMF’s predictions (see Working Paper below), but brings the world a message that any reasonable growth in world oil production will be accompanied by serious episodes of demand destruction.

Video from the Institute of International & European Affairs: http://www.iiea.com/
Download the IMF Working Paper from here.

* It should also be noted that the Working Paper does not represent the views of the IMF. This is normal with IMF Working Papers.

A PDF of Michael Kumhof's slides is online at the IIEA website.
Editorial Notes: Note that the talk was given April 16, 2012. More on peak oil from the IIEA. -BA

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Make connections via our GROUPS page.
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


Energy Crunch: The end of business as usual for fossil fuels?

It’s the end of business as usual for fossil fuels. That’s …

Peak oil notes - April 17

A mid-week update. Oil prices in London have risen this week on concerns …

Climate Panel Stunner: Avoiding Climate Catastrophe Is Super Cheap — But Only If We Act Now

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just issued …

Kashagan – Back to the drawing board?

The recent shutdown of Kashagan oil field in Kazakhstan represents one …

King Coal Is Dying a Slow Death in America

In cities choked by pollution and a world coming to grips with the realities …

Peak Oil Review - Apr 14

A weekly review including: Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East & …

Did crude oil production actually peak in 2005?

Haven't we been hearing from the oil industry and from government and …