Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Peak oil – oil prices need to double in a decade


Suggested by EB contributor Ian McPherson, who writes on his blog:

Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.

The world economy could not cope with a doubling of oil prices, which begs the question of whether world oil production can be increased at all, at a price that anyone can afford.

Kumhof is very careful to stress the uncertainties surrounding the IMF’s predictions (see Working Paper below), but brings the world a message that any reasonable growth in world oil production will be accompanied by serious episodes of demand destruction.

Video from the Institute of International & European Affairs: http://www.iiea.com/
Download the IMF Working Paper from here.

* It should also be noted that the Working Paper does not represent the views of the IMF. This is normal with IMF Working Papers.

A PDF of Michael Kumhof's slides is online at the IIEA website.
Editorial Notes: Note that the talk was given April 16, 2012. More on peak oil from the IIEA. -BA

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Make connections via our GROUPS page.
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.


IEA Oil Market Forecast: Optimistic Assumptions And An Economy Unable To Grow Out Of Its Problems

The International Energy Authority does does its best to paint a rosy …

Energy Crunch: Global debate heats up

News that last month was the world’s hottest June on record provided …

Divest! - Then What?

Divestment is one of the great campaigns of our times.But the question then …

World Oil Production at 3/31/2014-Where are We Headed?

The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent …

Peak oil notes - July 24

A midweek update. New York crude futures have traded in a narrow range …

Onshore Wind Power Is Now Cheapest Form Of New Electricity In Denmark

A new analysis from the government of Denmark found that wind power is by …

Keeping Oil Production From Falling

Production flows from a given oil field naturally decline over time, but we …