Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Peak oil – oil prices need to double in a decade


Suggested by EB contributor Ian McPherson, who writes on his blog:

Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.

The world economy could not cope with a doubling of oil prices, which begs the question of whether world oil production can be increased at all, at a price that anyone can afford.

Kumhof is very careful to stress the uncertainties surrounding the IMF’s predictions (see Working Paper below), but brings the world a message that any reasonable growth in world oil production will be accompanied by serious episodes of demand destruction.

Video from the Institute of International & European Affairs: http://www.iiea.com/
Download the IMF Working Paper from here.

* It should also be noted that the Working Paper does not represent the views of the IMF. This is normal with IMF Working Papers.

A PDF of Michael Kumhof's slides is online at the IIEA website.
Editorial Notes: Note that the talk was given April 16, 2012. More on peak oil from the IIEA. -BA

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


The Challenges & Opportunities in the Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

Post Carbon Institute Fellows Richard Heinberg and David Fridley gave a …

Starting Over  

What if we didn’t have to work around the grid we have today, with all …

Peak Oil Review - Aug 29 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Oil and the global …

Oil reserves and resources as function of oil price

Motorists enjoy lower prices at the pump. How long will that continue?

Fracking and Health: What we Know from Pennsylvania's Gas Boom

Tensions between economic development, energy policy and environmental and …

Peak Oil Review: A Midweek Update - 24th Aug 2016

 A midweek update. It has been a volatile three days for oil with …

How We Went on an Energy Diet, and What We Lost (and Gained!)

In which I reveal the changes in our household energy usage from 2003 …