Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Peak oil – oil prices need to double in a decade


Suggested by EB contributor Ian McPherson, who writes on his blog:

Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.

The world economy could not cope with a doubling of oil prices, which begs the question of whether world oil production can be increased at all, at a price that anyone can afford.

Kumhof is very careful to stress the uncertainties surrounding the IMF’s predictions (see Working Paper below), but brings the world a message that any reasonable growth in world oil production will be accompanied by serious episodes of demand destruction.

Video from the Institute of International & European Affairs: http://www.iiea.com/
Download the IMF Working Paper from here.

* It should also be noted that the Working Paper does not represent the views of the IMF. This is normal with IMF Working Papers.

A PDF of Michael Kumhof's slides is online at the IIEA website.
Editorial Notes: Note that the talk was given April 16, 2012. More on peak oil from the IIEA. -BA

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


Our Renewable Future   

How we use energy is as important as how we get it.

Peak Oil Notes - Apr 23

Industry leaders are warning that the $114 billion cut in capital …

Climate change: can the Seneca effect save us?

A Seneca shaped production curve would considerably reduce the amount of …

Saudi Arabia’s Oil-Price War Is With Stupid Money

Saudi Arabia is not trying to crush U.S. shale plays. Its oil-price …

Peak Oil Review - Apr 20

Weekly review including Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East & …

The Great Burning   

What will we do when the Great Burning comes to an end?

The Renewable Revolution

Don’t hold your breath, but future historians may look back on 2015 as …