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Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency
Matthieu Auzanneau, Oil Man, Le Monde (France) (trans. Alan H.)
Olivier Rech developed petroleum scenarios for the International Energy Agency over a three year period, up until 2009. Since then, he has been advising large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian assets management firm.
His forecasts for future petroleum production are now much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA. He expects stronger tensions as of 2013, and an inevitable overall decline of oil production “somewhere between 2015 and 2020”, in the following exclusive interview.
Rech’s outlook serves as another significant contribution to the expanding list of leading sources portraying the threat of an imminent decline in global extraction of crude oil.
… Rech: in my view, we will have to face a decline of the production of all forms of liquid fuels somewhere between 2015 to 2020. This decline will not necessarily be rapid, however, but it will be a decline, that much seems clear.
Q: You state “not necessarily rapid”. Why?
Rech: This will all depend on the speed at which streams of non-conventional oil will be able to be developed. Conversion of coal and natural gas to liquid fuels will remain infinitesimal. For first-generation biofuels, I believe we are already approaching the maximal limit. As for second-generation biofuels, we are still at the stage of industrial pilot projects. It should take another quarter century before we achieve a significant production on a world scale, let’s say around 2.4 mb/d.
(30 December 2011)
We posted a link to the French original of this article about a week ago. The English translation was just released today. -BA
World Pays Ecuador Not to Extract Oil from Rainforest
John Vidal, The Guardian/UK
Governments and film stars join alliance that raises £75m to compensate Ecuador for lost revenue from 900m barrels
An alliance of European local authorities, national governments, US film stars, Japanese shops, soft drink companies and Russian foundations have stepped in to prevent oil companies exploiting 900m barrels of crude oil from one of the world’s most biologically rich tracts of land.
According to the UN, the “crowdfunding” initiative had last night raised $116m (£75m), enough to temporarily halt the exploitation of the 722 square miles of “core” Amazonian rainforest known as Yasuní national park in Ecuador.
The park, which is home to two tribes of uncontacted Indians, is thought to have more mammal, bird, amphibian and plant species than any other spot on earth. Development of the oilfield, which was planned to take place immediately if the money had not been raised, would have inevitably led to ecological devastation and the eventual release of over 400m tonnes of CO2.
(30 December 2011)
‘Terrible’ and Plenty of It: The Oil That Comes in from the Cold
Humberto, Inter Press Service via Common Dreams
CARACAS – Thanks to soaring oil prices and new technology, oil producers in the hot sands of Arabia, the torrid Niger delta or the humid plains of the Orinoco are facing new competition from rivals in the frozen North.
The Anglo-Dutch Shell group was given the green light by the U.S. environmental agency to drill for oil off the coast of the northern edge of Alaska from July 2012, a project in which the company has already invested 3.5 billion dollars.
Meanwhile U.S. oil giant Exxon signed an agreement with Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, to invest 3.2 billion dollars in exploring for oil and gas under the Kara sea, in northwest Russia. Another alliance, between BP (British) and TNK (Russian), is regretting its failure to win this opportunity.
(30 December 2011)