- Economist James Hamilton on "Fundamentals, speculation, and oil prices"
- Has Peak Oil Come To The Non-Opec World? Maybe. (Forbes)

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Peak oil - Aug 30

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Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage.


Aleklett's new book: "Peeking at Peak Oil"

Kjell Aleklett, Springer Publications

Peeking at Peak Oil
Aleklett, Kjell, Lardelli, Michael, Qvennerstedt, Olle
1st Edition., 2012, 200 p. 100 illus., 50 in color.
Softcover, ISBN 978-94-007-1815-9
Available: May 29, 2012
approx. $34.95

Discusses the major social and economic implications of peak oil
Explains the world before and after the point in time when the rate of oil production enters terminal decline.
Written by an authority in the field to be accessible to a broad audience
Contains many colourful illustrations

Get an Insider’s Perspective on Peak Oil

The expression, “peak oil” was born in January 2001 when Colin Campbell formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO). Now, “peak oil” is used thousands of times every day by journalists, politicians, industry leaders, economists, scientists and countless others around the globe. Anyone interested in food production, economic growth, climate change and global security needs to understand it.

Professor Kjell Aleklett and his research group in Sweden lead the world in peak oil research. In “Peeking at Peak Oil” Kjell describes the decade-long journey of peak oil from “extremist fringe theory” to today’s accepted fact. He explains all you need to know to understand peak oil and its world-changing consequences from an insider’s perspective. In simple steps Kjell tells us how oil is formed, discovered and “produced”. He uses science to reveal the errors and deceit of national and international oil authorities and companies that are too terrified to admit the truth. He describes his personal involvement in the intrigues of the past decade. The book is beautifully illustrated throughout by one of Sweden’s leading graphic artists, Olle Qvennerstedt. Peak oil is not the end of oil but it tells us the end is in sight. If you want to know what the future really has in store for us then you need to be “Peeking at Peak Oil”.

Table of contents
Prologue
1) Peak Oil
2) A world addicted to oil
3) The global oil and gas factory
4) How to find an oilfield
5) The oil industry's vocabulary
6) The art of producing (extracting) oil
7) The size of the tap - the laws of physics and economics
8) The Elephants - the giant oilfields
9) Unconventional oil, NGL and the Mitigation Wedge
10) The peak of the oil age
11) Oil from Deep Water - the end tail of the oil extraction
12) Peeking at Saudi Arabia - "Twilight in the desert"
13) Russia and USA - the oil pioneers
14) China and Peak Oil
15) Peak transportation
16) Peak Oil and climate change
17) Why are military and intelligent agencies "Peeking at Peak Oil"
18) How can we live with Peak Oil?
19) An inconvenient Swede
Epilogue
(August 2011)
The book is a summary of the research done by Dr. Aleklett and his group. He says that it "will tell a story about Peak Oil that you never have read before."
-BA



Fundamentals, speculation, and oil prices

James D. Hamilton, EconBrowser
I was in Washington DC last week, arriving right after the earthquake and getting out of town just before Irene, to attend a conference on commodity markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Here are some of the remarks I made at the conference on the role of speculation and fundamentals in recent oil price movements.

... Although I remain open to evidence on a possible short-run contribution speculation may have had, one aspect of the debate over this issue worries me. The plots above of oil production over time in my mind highlight what has been a significant economic challenge over the last few years and very possibly an even bigger challenge in the years ahead. I would like to see more consensus on what seems to me to be a very clear statement of fact, which is, stagnating global production is by far the most important reason for a rising price of oil.

Insofar as discussion of commodity futures speculation causes some people to ignore this critical reality, I fear that it may be doing us a significant disservice.

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego
(28 August 2011)



Has Peak Oil Come To The Non-Opec World? Maybe.

Christopher Helman, Forbes
The world’s biggest oil companies put in a pretty pathetic performance in the second quarter of 2011. Not in terms of earnings — those were great, with Exxon posting $10.7 billion and Royal Dutch Shell doing $8 billion. Just what you’d expect with Brent crude at a lofty $120 a barrel.

Where the results were disappointing was in the barrels. Of the 16 big U.S. and European oil companies studied by Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey, 14 of them saw their production of petroleum decline in the quarter.

... So what will it mean for the oil market when only OPEC can meet oil demand, especially considering that China and India’s oil needs are ramping from such a tiny per capita base? “It seems very clear that higher and highly volatile oil prices will be a necessary fact of future oil markets,” writes Sankey.

What’s an investor to do? Buy oil companies of course, especially those that show any likelihood of boosting oil output.
(30 August 2011)

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